1/28 - 1/30 Storm Thread II

[superjames1992]

From Robert: @WxSouth: GFS likely too far south with Upper low going thru deep Mexico 60 hour. Typical Bias. Atleast now it joined NAM , no cutoff left behind.Sent from my iPhone

And that would lead to bombs away and fireworks for almost all, yes?

[max100]

those accumulation maps are pretty worthless guys, i don't get why everyone keeps posting them.

Its simply wish casting.

[BullCityWx]

BUFKIT for the 12Z NAM also showed zero snow at CHS.

[DaculaWeather]

WXSOUTH ‏@WxSouth  3m

GFS likely too far south with Upper low going thru deep Mexico 60 hour. Typical Bias. Atleast now it joined NAM , no cutoff left behind.

[WxFreak11]

No snow in Charleston thru 78hr. All frz rain and sleet with plain rain early on

I thought that might be the case..not looking forward to the ice..

[beanskip]

Sleet, right?

 

 

Date: 3 day AVN valid 12Z WED 29 JAN 14
Station: KVPS
Latitude:   30.48
Longitude: -86.53
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1020    24   1.4   1.1  97  0.4   1.3   5  17 273.0 273.7 273.4 283.9  4.04
  1 1000   185  -1.1  -2.0  94  0.9  -1.5   7  23 272.0 272.6 271.6 280.9  3.29
  2  950   592  -3.2  -3.7  96  0.5  -3.4  14  26 273.9 274.4 272.5 282.3  3.05
  3  900  1025   1.8   0.4  90  1.5   1.2 350  15 283.4 284.2 279.4 295.7  4.37
  4  850  1487   2.9   0.7  86  2.1   1.8 295  18 289.1 290.0 282.5 302.8  4.75
  5  800  1979   3.2  -0.0  79  3.2   1.7 270  25 294.5 295.4 284.8 308.5  4.77
  6  750  2501   1.6  -1.1  82  2.7   0.3 267  33 298.3 299.1 286.1 312.2  4.69
  7  700  3054  -1.6  -2.6  93  1.0  -2.0 262  42 300.7 301.6 286.9 314.3  4.51
  8  650  3642  -3.3  -3.5  98  0.2  -3.4 240  50 305.3 306.1 288.5 319.2  4.55
  9  600  4274  -5.6  -5.7 100  0.0  -5.7 231  61 309.6 310.4 289.6 322.7  4.18
10  550  4952  -9.9 -10.3  97  0.4 -10.1 237  71 312.3 312.9 289.5 322.5  3.18
11  500  5681 -14.4 -14.8  97  0.4 -14.5 242  79 315.5 315.9 289.8 323.4  2.43
12  450  6472 -19.4 -19.5  99  0.1 -19.4 245  77 318.9 319.2 290.3 325.0  1.81
13  400  7337 -25.8 -26.2  96  0.4 -25.8 245  73 321.5 321.7 290.4 325.4  1.13
14  350  8291 -32.6 -32.6 100 -0.0 -32.6 238  85 324.8 324.9 290.9 327.3  0.71
15  300  9357 -41.5 -41.5  99  0.1 -41.5 239 104 326.9 327.0 291.2 328.2  0.33
16  250 10575 -47.5 -47.9  95  0.4 -47.5 242 126 335.5 335.5 293.4 336.3  0.20
17  200 12021 -56.0 -58.1  77  2.1 -56.1 245 136 344.1 344.1 295.4 344.4  0.08
18  150 13823 -61.5 -70.9  27  9.4 -61.6 244 125 364.2 364.2 299.5 364.3  0.02
19  100 16279 -69.4 -80.7  18 11.3 -69.5 253  81 393.6 393.6 304.3 393.6  0.01

[WidreMann]

00z tonight is what we want to see. The models will have had time to ingest data from the s/w's and to catch on to any trends. If it's still staying weak and off-shore, I'd throw in the towel for inland places.

[griteater]

I would go with Kill Devil Hills, NC as ground zero for max snowfall per latest NAM/GFS

[deltadog03]

GFS does have a warmer thermal profile overall, but it looks cooler than previous runs, and obviously the QPF is MUCH higher for the areas that were showing, and a bit further NW.  At least for around here, QPF is now around .50-.60" up from maybe .25"

[FLweather]

Sleet, right?

 

 

Date: 3 day AVN valid 12Z WED 29 JAN 14

Station: KVPS

Latitude:   30.48

Longitude: -86.53

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W

     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1020    24   1.4   1.1  97  0.4   1.3   5  17 273.0 273.7 273.4 283.9  4.04

  1 1000   185  -1.1  -2.0  94  0.9  -1.5   7  23 272.0 272.6 271.6 280.9  3.29

  2  950   592  -3.2  -3.7  96  0.5  -3.4  14  26 273.9 274.4 272.5 282.3  3.05

  3  900  1025   1.8   0.4  90  1.5   1.2 350  15 283.4 284.2 279.4 295.7  4.37

  4  850  1487   2.9   0.7  86  2.1   1.8 295  18 289.1 290.0 282.5 302.8  4.75

  5  800  1979   3.2  -0.0  79  3.2   1.7 270  25 294.5 295.4 284.8 308.5  4.77

  6  750  2501   1.6  -1.1  82  2.7   0.3 267  33 298.3 299.1 286.1 312.2  4.69

  7  700  3054  -1.6  -2.6  93  1.0  -2.0 262  42 300.7 301.6 286.9 314.3  4.51

  8  650  3642  -3.3  -3.5  98  0.2  -3.4 240  50 305.3 306.1 288.5 319.2  4.55

  9  600  4274  -5.6  -5.7 100  0.0  -5.7 231  61 309.6 310.4 289.6 322.7  4.18

10  550  4952  -9.9 -10.3  97  0.4 -10.1 237  71 312.3 312.9 289.5 322.5  3.18

11  500  5681 -14.4 -14.8  97  0.4 -14.5 242  79 315.5 315.9 289.8 323.4  2.43

12  450  6472 -19.4 -19.5  99  0.1 -19.4 245  77 318.9 319.2 290.3 325.0  1.81

13  400  7337 -25.8 -26.2  96  0.4 -25.8 245  73 321.5 321.7 290.4 325.4  1.13

14  350  8291 -32.6 -32.6 100 -0.0 -32.6 238  85 324.8 324.9 290.9 327.3  0.71

15  300  9357 -41.5 -41.5  99  0.1 -41.5 239 104 326.9 327.0 291.2 328.2  0.33

16  250 10575 -47.5 -47.9  95  0.4 -47.5 242 126 335.5 335.5 293.4 336.3  0.20

17  200 12021 -56.0 -58.1  77  2.1 -56.1 245 136 344.1 344.1 295.4 344.4  0.08

18  150 13823 -61.5 -70.9  27  9.4 -61.6 244 125 364.2 364.2 299.5 364.3  0.02

19  100 16279 -69.4 -80.7  18 11.3 -69.5 253  81 393.6 393.6 304.3 393.6  0.01

 

looks like CR

[nchighcountrywx]

JB emphasized this Sunday morning as being the GENERAL likely outcome over the next 10 days

Remains to be seen

[burrel2]

Basically, all the SREF member’s that fully phase the baja parcel show the farthest west precip field by far.

 

The members that have a partial phase or a miss confine the winter precip to the coastal plain and points east.

 

 

It’s becoming apparent that for us piedmont people to get snow, we really need that baja low to fully phase with the northern stream energy coming down.  

[Snowless in Carrollton]

JB emphasized this Sunday morning as being the GENERAL likely outcome over the next 10 days

Remains to be seen

love the snow hole from Birmingham to Atlanta to Charlotte.

[packbacker]

This run is a complete miss with the southern wave, northern stream dominant.

Which isn't good for us in the west, will see.

[nchighcountrywx]

From HPC, this could give some contrasting hints...all will change tho

[Lookout]

Basically, all the SREF member’s that fully phase the baja parcel show the farthest west precip field by far.

 

The members that have a partial phase or a miss confine the winter precip to the coastal plain and points east.

 

 

It’s becoming apparent that for us piedmont people to get snow, we really need that baja low to fully phase with the northern stream energy coming down.  

We certainly need the upper low/sw to not dig so far south in mexico. What's frustrating is the northern stream of the gfs was further southwest but with the southern piece further south too, they cancel each other out. It sure would be nice to see what potential there really is if the models wouldn't off set something good with something bad every run.

 

I'm somewhere around 0.25 on this run. Sure is frustrating knowing 4 times that amount falls just 75 miles or south of me.

[HKY_WX]

It's not so much the baha low that matters as much as the ridge. I was just comparing this 12z gfs run to the 18z from yesterday, and the apparant difference is the PNA ridge. It's really acting as an accelerator for the PJ, which in turn kicks out the energy from the STJ. I'm not sure if the trends are finished or if we'll see a few more ticks west. I do think the area from central GA to central/east SC, to eastern NC is in the best position. A line from macon to florence to rocky mount is where i'd like to be sitting right now.

[burrel2]

Ukmet and Canadian miss the phase and have hardly any precip outside the immediate coast. 

[bingcrosbyb]

12z NAM & GFS are still showing different solutions at 500mb. GFS digs the sw much deeper into Mexico.

 

[Lookout]

love the snow hole from Birmingham to Atlanta to Charlotte.

I think that is from the 0z run last night.

 

At any rate, you can clearly see the nw trend on the gfs. The 0z run was much drier and further south vs this mornings run as you can see. It's  only doing it a little bit at a time but these small shifts northwest add up. And if you are on that back edge of precip, even the slightest change north or south will greatly effect snow totals. 

 

I don't think we are going to see any major changes from one run to the next unless the models actually start phasing the two.

 

Still frustrating to see so much difference in terms of precip between the gfs/nam and canadian/euro, etc.

 

 

[BullCityWx]

Here's a couple of locations close to CLT just to show you how close it is:

KRCZ(rockingham): .60

KAFP(Wadesboro): .35

KLKR(Lancaster): .25

We need a 30 mile shift for a snow advisory. We need a 50 mile shift for warning criteria snow. We need an 80 mile shift to really be in the game for a 6" snow.

[FallsLake]

For the Triangle area, 12z GFS(compared to 6z) pushed the precip field just a little to the west. Has my house now between .25 and .50.    .25 line maybe gets right to Durham. Raleigh and SE looks good. Again this is just one run of one model. The trend is the important thing. Really shows how close folks will be to snow and no snow.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Sure would be nice to get the EURO aboard. 

 

Regarding the EURO's tendency to be too slow to eject SW energy eastward, at what time frame does the EURO typically get this timing right?   Would seem that by now, this should no longer come into play...no?

[deltadog03]

I think as long as the flow gets "backed" to the SW at 500mb, then there will be at least light qpf where the models are showing this.  I still think there is a little room to come NW with the qpf over bama and GA through about RDU and CLT.  NW of there, IMO this isn't gonna be your storm

[SnowGoose69]

Ukmet and Canadian miss the phase and have hardly any precip outside the immediate coast.

Not sure about down south but all winter up in the Northeast the GGEM has picked up systems at day 7 when no other models had them then lost them inside day 5 when all other guidance started seeing them, the ukmet has been abominable all winter

[Lookout]

Ukmet and Canadian miss the phase and have hardly any precip outside the immediate coast. 

yep, canadian actually went the other way vs the 0z run. Ugh.

[packbacker]

CMC did tick NW with precip.

[Lookout]

CMC did tick NW with precip.

not over the gulf coast, ga, and sc. Only place I see it did was over far eastern nc.

 

It's hard  to tell because of the crappy graphics but the canadian either loses the upper low/sw or has it way down to the south. no wonder it's drier and further south.

[NC_hailstorm]

Good jump today on the GFS.

Ground was gained.

[nchighcountrywx]

Ryan Maue's Opinion

Based on GFS ptype & 850 mb temps 3-4°C, expecting freezing rain & pellets rather than fluffy/wet snow for Carolinas http://t.co/PTwiF8HCeF

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