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1/28 - 1/30 Storm Thread II


burgertime

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I will be shocked to get to 3 inches.

I would be surprised if you don't get 3", I got an inch, I might luck into another inch, will see.

The HRRR was very good, has us ending around 1am, RAP has us ending at 5am and that will bust, 1am will be close. I bet we get around 0.25" of precip. Burger was right, the Euro handled this storm the best.

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I would be surprised if you don't get 3", I got an inch, I might luck into another inch, will see.

The HRRR was very good, has us ending around 1am, RAP has us ending at 5am and that will bust, 1am will be close. I bet we get around 0.25" of precip. Burger was right, the Euro handled this storm the best.

I'm guessing I have, being very generous, maybe 1.5 and it's been snowing decently since 7ish. If it snows at this same rate for 3 more hours (questionable) I might get close. Radar is right at 20 dbz. I'm guessing that is around 1/4 inch per hour or so.

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Updated 21z SREF Plumes for down in Charlotte

 

Verification Time

KGSP Update 28JAN14 9:09pm

 

 

can at least speak for mby - they were just about spot on with that forecast.  right at about 2.5 here and within the range they had me in.  (measurement range in didnt vary a whole lot.  not much wind just powdery snow)

 

considering how this storm acted ( went to be bummed last night that things were looking not good for even a dusting) with the final runs last night, and then waking up to virga and confusion in the forecasts it wasnt until it started over coming the dry air and reaching the ground and i saw radar lit up back to alabama that i realized a couple of inches were likely.  i do feel bad for those in the infamous se screw zones. we have all been there, but i guess down both sides of I85 it was a big over achiever.

 

i will admit after this storm, and a couple in 2010 and 2011, the RAP starting about the day before a se winter event has done really well in this general area

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Pretty amazing CLT and ATL will beat RDU, again.

 

 

Storm over performed for the NW fringe areas of this storm. It also overperformed for the Central Alabama area....even Birmingham got a decent snow(1-2) when they weren't forecasted for anything. It seems to have underperformed for those in Central NC. I had a feeling it would.

 

Crazy to think my 2.5-3 inches will be more than those forecasted in NC to get 5+. I think I got extremely lucky with heavier bands training over my area constantly.

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Storm over performed for the NW fringe areas of this storm. It also overperformed for the Central Alabama area....even Birmingham got a decent snow(1-2) when they weren't forecasted for anything. It seems to have underperformed for those in Central NC. I had a feeling it would.

 

Crazy to think my 2.5-3 inches will be more than those forecasted in NC to get 5+. I think I got extremely lucky with heavier bands training over my area constantly.

i made the mistake of looking out once more before going to bed and still getting flurries, i may have to make myself go to bed when flakes are still falling lol

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I would be surprised if you don't get 3", I got an inch, I might luck into another inch, will see.

The HRRR was very good, has us ending around 1am, RAP has us ending at 5am and that will bust, 1am will be close. I bet we get around 0.25" of precip. Burger was right, the Euro handled this storm the best.

Packbacker was right, RDU forecast busted.  We hear all of these high totals and they never verify.

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For those of you downstream of me, it's interesting to note the conveyer belt is still running through New Orleans with a persistent line of precip headed ENE. This was not modeled by evening RAP runs.

There's a streak of quickly developing precip along the western edge surging through SC now. Anybody have thoughts on this?
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People are going about their normal routines in Atlanta. The interstate was packed and people were driving like maniacs. I could see a potential traffic nightmare getting ready to unfold for Atlanta.

What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015.

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What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015.

wow!  that is one heck of a day, glad you are safe and hopefully warm now - whew you now have one snowstorm horror story that will be hard for people to ever top lol

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A quick note on Atlanta's snowfall...

 

The city received 2.3", which set a daily record. It was also that city's biggest snowfall since 1/9-10/2011.

 

Models did a good job with the snowfall and run-to-run continuity was good. The GFS did particularly well. Moreover, such a snowfall was consistent with the city's climatology. Using the last 30 years as a reference point, the return time for 2" or greater snowfalls was once every 2.3 years. Put another way, one could reasonably argue that such a snowfall might have been overdue.

 

The chart below illustrates the number of cases for select snowfall amounts and return times associated with those snowfalls.

 

ATLSnowfall.jpg

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