Wow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is where it is actually snowing, ground truth more reliable then the radar where the beam is 4000ft off the ground away from radar site. Exactly. You'd think it's sunny here based on the Greer radar returns. It's pouring down snow and has been for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 you seriously think Central NC is going to bust that hard? Our main precip for snow isn't supposed to arrive by 4pm.I think it's a distinct possibility. The radar to the south and west is anemic and not getting better. Models are cutting back on totals. Temps are warmer than expected, etc. etc. etc. I really think it's entirely reasonable Durham/CH ends up with a half an inch at best somewhere in the late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Is is coming down in Roxboro yet, nc? Yeah for a couple hours and still is... less than 1/4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think it's a distinct possibility. The radar to the south and west is anemic and not getting better. Models are cutting back on totals. Temps are warmer than expected, etc. etc. etc. I really think it's entirely reasonable Durham/CH ends up with a half an inch at best somewhere in the late evening. Yep, I don't think your going to get that little, but 1-2", and 2-3" for RDU. That's not a forecast bust, but I would consider a storm potential bust. RAH is still going with 2-4 in there latest update so yes, it's not technically a forecast bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 20Z RAP looks a bit wetter down our way, but a bit more sleet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think it's a distinct possibility. The radar to the south and west is anemic and not getting better. Models are cutting back on totals. Temps are warmer than expected, etc. etc. etc. I really think it's entirely reasonable Durham/CH ends up with a half an inch at best somewhere in the late evening. Yeah, Durham/CH has huge bust potential...could end up with less than 1" with your close neighbor RDU doing much better. Always seems to be a tight gradient over Wake Co. smack dab in the center of the state, unfortunately. I still think Durham gets >1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snowing at 9241 Globe Center Drive Morrisville, NC. I am on the West side woods of KRDU The snow hole that is RDU can only hold out for so long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah, Durham/CH has huge bust potential...could end up with less than 1" with your close neighbor RDU doing much better. Always seems to be a tight gradient over Wake Co. smack dab in the center of the state, unfortunately. I still think Durham gets >1"It just amazes me that points west of here are cashing in from a random band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good question, Wish I had the answer. However, the latest run of the RAP is showing that also. Is the precipitation splitting up over the mountains? Or, is it just too far from the radar beams to show up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z GFS backed off, 0.35" of precip now for RDU, 0.5" line closer to I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We are heading for one of the all time worst busts. It will literally be snowing in DC before it's snowing here, well I should say if it snows here. It's trying really hard to not snow in RDU, there is almost a perfect circle around us with a big gaping precip hole coming right for us. Why did we cancel schools? you're an amateur if you think this will rank as an all time worst bust. it wouldn't rank in my top 10. that said, it's not going to be a bust. go to your room young man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z GFS backed off, 0.35" of precip now for RDU, 0.5" line closer to I-95. and the 20z RAP came in wetter than the last 2 runs and looks almost exactly like the 17z 6" RDU 7" Downtown 8" Wake Forest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 and the 20z RAP came in wetter than the last 2 runs and looks almost exactly like the 17z 6" RDU 7" Downtown 8" Wake Forest But that can't be right because it is good and has been consistent all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 But that can't be right because it is good and has been consistent all day. Wxrisk.com dont use use the RAP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Here you go, something positive, see I can keep it real, supposedly this model did well with this mornings stuff in GA/AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wxrisk.com dont use use the RAP... And he said 6 o 10 for Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Is the precipitation splitting up over the mountains? Or, is it just too far from the radar beams to show up? As Phil said, it is a dry slot created by vertical descent from the frontogenetical circulation over the mountains. Unfortunately, as others have stated, the RAP shows this and essentially the event is "over" for the mountain areas. As it currently stands, Asheville did NOT reach the one inch barrier today, so the snow drought continues (last 1" of snow was Jan 10, 2011). The snow in Tennessee is heading northeast and should not be a factor in any additional accumulations over the mountains tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I didn't see this posted..... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0345 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN GA...CNTRL/ERN/SRN SC...ERNNCCONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATIONVALID 282145Z - 290215ZSUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THEPIEDMONT REGION OF NC/SC/GA TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINASINTO THE EVENING HOURS.DISCUSSION...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSSTHE AREA...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THATTHE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROMCNTRL GA WSWWD TO COASTAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN THE WARMCONVEYOR BELT OVER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD CNTRL/ERN-CONUSTROUGH...WITH ASCENT BEING ENHANCED AROUND AN IMPULSE CROSSING THEMID MS VALLEY AS PORTRAYED BY RECENT MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. ASTHE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND THETROUGH...STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THEMCD AREA WHILE MODEST SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST ENHANCES WARMADVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT ANINCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE EVENINGHOURS...WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES 0.02-0.05 INCH PER HOURPOSSIBLE.SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM PARTS OF CNTRL SC TOCNTRL GA...THOUGH SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND MODEST SFC COLDADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 32F DURING THENEXT FEW HOURS AND SUPPORT MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION IN MOSTLOCATIONS. THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BREED A NARROWTRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW. THE 18Z RAOBSAT MHX AND CHS HIGHLIGHT A 2.5-6C ELEVATED WARM LAYER CAPABLE OFCOMPLETE MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. INCREASING WAA ALOFTSHOULD MAINTAIN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN OFTHE CAROLINAS...YIELDING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN.FARTHER INLAND TOWARD THE PIEDMONT FROM CNTRL GA INTO SC ANDNC...FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...A COOLER PROFILEALOFT WILL MORE LIKELY SUPPORT SLEET...AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THENWRN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...COHEN.. 01/28/2014ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hahah I can't stand Jim Cantore (he is a jerk in person) so I am glad that happened. I am sure he went off on them after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Gorgeous: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 21z RAP unfortunately had a big jump east, now has RDU, right on the 0.5" line if not lower, need to wait on Allan's maps to update to be sure. Trends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RDU has consistently been at the 0.5 mark. Please stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Even with the heaviest precip shifting east, the RAP still delivers another 0.2-0.3" QPF for the I-85 corridor... You need to stop jumping at every RAP shift, Packbacker. Seriously. It's going to shift around some. You're likely going to get 3-6" of snow; enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thanks Tracker! Looks like we need to eek out all we can then down here in the lee side. As Phil said, it is a dry slot created by vertical descent from the frontogenetical circulation over the mountains. Unfortunately, as others have stated, the RAP shows this and essentially the event is "over" for the mountain areas. As it currently stands, Asheville did NOT reach the one inch barrier today, so the snow drought continues (last 1" of snow was Jan 10, 2011). The snow in Tennessee is heading northeast and should not be a factor in any additional accumulations over the mountains tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 QPF bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Need this to not be a sleet event we are close to being on that NW corner were we get hammered later tonight, all sleet now but I am hoping later after say 9 we get better lift and can get rates good enough to overcome the warm nose but its gonna be close..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So that's 4-6 northwest of the Augusta area. They are the first to end w/ this storm. What do they have right now? Anywhere near 4-6? Here you go, something positive, see I can keep it real, supposedly this model did well with this mornings stuff in GA/AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks the radar is starting to fill in now for all the cliff divers in RDU(I admit I too was looking at the cliff). The 18z models still look to have around .5 at RDU. Everything is still on. There will probably be a big decrease as you go north and west of RDU but still it should .3 back towards Hillsboro/Chapel Hill. Now if we can get those numbers maybe tonight we could add some higher ratios (15:1??) and still get a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 15:1 is about right. Its been powder falling easly blown around by the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Radar looks very good for folks in central NC and RDU. Keep looking at the radar probably pointless to look at models right now. You can see that moisture is starting to get thrown back into ENC. It won't be long now. Look at the radar I'm hoping I can stay on the right side of the edge of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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