packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 19Z RAP puts out 0.69" of QPF for RDU Thanks! Just noting other models so I can compare after the fact…RAH noted this morning they were going with Euro precip output. 12z Euro - 0.36" 12z GFS - 0.55" 12z Nam (12km) - 0.45" 18z Nam (12km) - 0.46" 18z NAM (4km) - 0.5" 12z RGEM - 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 OK: would that red blotch over Bama-Ga be the enhanced energy that broke off the low and is progressing. If so, would it continue to do to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm in the low-confidence portion of Wake County. Most of the jobs are on this side of the county too. They'll probably be open but no one can get there. ... RAH still expecting 5-6" over here in Johnston Co. via FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Here's the image. Not a ton of difference, but would definitely like to see it trend wetter rather than drier, even if the difference is slight. It closed the donut hole in SC, though. How did it trend drier? It looks just the same for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=19&fhour=18¶meter=PCPIN&level=18&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false That looks better and I'm ready for my sleetfest to begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 How did it trend drier? It looks just the same for central NC. "even if the difference is slight" -- Cold Rain Slight. Compare the maps. I posted them. It's not much. It increased the amounts farther east. It decreased them farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thanks! Just noting other models so I can compare after the fact…RAH noted this morning they were going with Euro precip output. 12z Euro - 0.36" 12z GFS - 0.55" 12z Nam (12km) - 0.45" 18z Nam (12km) - 0.46" 18z NAM (4km) - 0.5" 12z RGEM - 0.5" Looks like an averge of .5 or so. About what the models have been showing for the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like an averge of .5 or so. About what the models have been showing for the past few runs. Yep, that sounds about right. I hope that dry slot over SC fills in soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yep, that sounds about right. I hope that dry slot over SC fills in soon though. Looks like it's trying. I would say that blob pushing up from the south should enter S. Wake County within the half hour. Still hoping for a general start of 5pm but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yep, that sounds about right. I hope that dry slot over SC fills in soon though. I believe most of our moisture will be coming from the SE when the LP forms off the coast. I imagine most of the moisture down in Ga will evaporate as the coastal forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That looks better and I'm ready for my sleetfest to begin We are going to have to take pictures just to compare just a few miles difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yep, that sounds about right. I hope that dry slot over SC fills in soon though. We are heading for one of the all time worst busts. It will literally be snowing in DC before it's snowing here, well I should say if it snows here. It's trying really hard to not snow in RDU, there is almost a perfect circle around us with a big gaping precip hole coming right for us. Why did we cancel schools? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The dry slot in SC is not a big deal. It's not the main banding coming tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP has been showing this delay of the precip all morning. Nothing to worry about yet for the triangle. RAP had it starting later but ending later as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We are heading for one of the all time worst busts. It will literally be snowing in DC before it's snowing here, well I should say if it snows here. It's trying really hard to not snow in RDU, there is almost a perfect circle around us with a big gaping precip hole coming right for us. Why did we cancel schools? you seriously think Central NC is going to bust that hard? Our main precip for snow isn't supposed to arrive by 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We are heading for one of the all time worst busts. It will literally be snowing in DC before it's snowing here, well I should say if it snows here. It's trying really hard to not snow in RDU, there is almost a perfect circle around us with a big gaping precip hole coming right for us. Why did we cancel schools? Aside from stray flakes, none of that is reaching the ground. We've been geared for no precip before 6 p.m. all day. This neck of the woods will be getting a late start, but start it will. And they canceled schools because of the info they had on hand at the time. Far better to look silly than look negligent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tblevins Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We are heading for one of the all time worst busts. It will literally be snowing in DC before it's snowing here, well I should say if it snows here. It's trying really hard to not snow in RDU, there is almost a perfect circle around us with a big gaping precip hole coming right for us. Why did we cancel schools? If you look at the current dewpoints, they are very low in that circle around Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP has been showing this delay of the precip all morning. Nothing to worry about yet for the triangle. RAP had it starting later but ending later as well. 19z RAP had it starting between 5 and 6pm and ending between 4-5 am. 20z RAP has it starting closer to 6pm, waiting on run to finish to confirm when it has it ending and will update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is where it is actually snowing, ground truth more reliable then the radar where the beam is 4000ft off the ground away from radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 20z RAP is wetter for central NC. No need to dive off the cliff. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014012820&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 you seriously think Central NC is going to bust that hard? Our main precip for snow isn't supposed to arrive by 4pm. Will see, latest RGEM cut way back on precip, the 0.5" line is almost to I-95, RDU is roughly about 0.3" of precip. Everywhere else it started earlier, a late start is never good for precip totals. I do think we will get accumulating snow, but I originally though 4" for RDU, I am going with 2-3" (0.25" precip). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 For the folks that keep calling bust... personally I hope you do. It wasn't suppose to start till after 4 in central NC. Just give it time... its trending slower. Going to start later and end later But if you look at the radars the flow out west is tilting more North and even locally. Moisture is just now starting to be drawn back NW and if a weak ull does form like the models are showing it will only enhance precip. Time... Rome wasn't built in a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 People should probably stop cliff jumping based on how the RAP changes from hour-to-hour, IMO. It's going to shift some. We'll see what happens. When you run a model every hour, you're going to get differing solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like WRAL upped totals a tad and shifted heavier snow NW….has ColdRain in the 5-10" area WRAL just brought the 1-4" line very close to RDU, just saying…old map above, new map below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Will see, latest RGEM cut way back on precip, the 0.5" line is almost to I-95, RDU is roughly about 0.3" of precip. Everywhere else it started earlier, a late start is never good for precip totals. I do think we will get accumulating snow, but I originally though 4" for RDU, I am going with 2-3" (0.25" precip). Since when did you start buying into the RGEM 100%? Man this board is crazy sometimes. I still expect a full report on your eating of shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Tack another star in Robeson County to that map ... got a pic of snow in Shannon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 pack backer, notice the 5-10" line did not move east out of Wake though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 19z RAP had it starting between 5 and 6pm and ending between 4-5 am. 20z RAP has it starting closer to 6pm, ending closer to 4am. Updated above. But RAP is starting a little later and ending a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WRAL just brought the 1-4" line very close to RDU, just saying…old map above, new map below. RDU was always on the crap end of the sharp gradient over wake county for this storm, we knew this coming in. Only until recently did the models start trending wetter for RDU, and even then it's the tail end of the wetter precip that licks RDU so it shouldn't be a surprise they're on the line. Even if RDU gets inside the 1-4" I'd take the high end of that range. I honestly can't see RDU only getting 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Is the precipitation splitting up over the mountains? Or, is it just too far from the radar beams to show up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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