FallsLake Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think it's been pretty good so far. It's interesting to note that the rap more or less stalls the back edge of the precip for a little while. I might only be 2 or 3 hours but the rap is showing some really good snow rates so it would make quite a difference Looking at this run it would be a central Ga - Greenville SC - Charlotte - Raleigh - Norfork special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You sure did, and it is helping to aid snow development in the western Carolinas. I am not sure how strong it will get, the RAP has the pressure dropping to 1019 mb, so we will see. There could be some very unique enhancements across the mountains, foothills, and western piedmont of NC. Hard to say where, but someone may be surprised. I believe you went to UNCA, this similar situation actually appeared on one of Dr. Miller's Synoptic test. Hmmm trying to remember the particular instance, but yea Q-vectors and frontogenesis were definitely covered in full! You can see the two frontogenetical bands at 850 hPa (one over TN, and the other more intense band associated with the better forcing south in GA and SC). These two bands will probably merge over the next couple of hours over SC. We are starting to see the radar fill in further south in the Upstate of SC so expect that continue for the next 3-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Perhaps one of the mets or really knowledgeable "non-mets" can shed some insight as to what has kept the real cold air from making its way to central Georgia. It appears to have hit a brick wall north of Macon and kept our temperatures from falling to the freezing mark. I was hoping we could at least be at 31-32 when the main precip moved in, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Thanks for any insight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest Rap (17z run) paints a nice swath of .5+ across the central piedmont. RDU looks to be in the .6-.7 range, but I don't have a graphic that shows the counties, so I can't be sure. Interestingly, there is a minimum of precip in SC. What is the model picking up on that would lead to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looking at this run it would be a central Ga - Greenville SC - Charlotte - Raleigh - Norfork special That is a LOT of moisture trending back into GA/ALA as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest Rap (17z run) paints a nice swath of .5+ across the central piedmont. RDU looks to be in the .6-.7 range, but I don't have a graphic that shows the counties, so I can't be sure. Interestingly, there is a minimum of precip in SC. What is the model picking up on that would lead to that? Look at Allan's tweet, shows snow acc with 10:1 ratios which you can glean the precip from. we are solidly in 0.7" of precip. If you cut it by 1/3 I think that will be good so roughly 0.4-0.5" of precip which matches other models, from past storms RAP has always overshot precip. https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/428236226089320448/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The RAP actually has +.75 qpf in a streak from RDU NE through Roanoke Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest Rap (17z run) paints a nice swath of .5+ across the central piedmont. RDU looks to be in the .6-.7 range, but I don't have a graphic that shows the counties, so I can't be sure. Interestingly, there is a minimum of precip in SC. What is the model picking up on that would lead to that? Mesoscale banding... the reason why Birmingham, AL is basically shut down right now is they were unexpectedly hit with an intense mesoscale band that dropped about 1-3" of snow unexpected on the city with temperatures in the upper teens. Banding is common along the axis of where the max frontogenesis occurs, and this secondary axis extending into TN and NC has been producing some impressive rates locally. The minimum over SC could represent an area that misses out on the best forcing through these frontogenetical bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Gotcha, thanks guys. It looks like it's had that "hole" in SC for a few runs now. Edit: Just saw Phil's, Poinmen's, and Brick's responses as well. Thanks for the info. I'm sure the model can't nail down exactly where such a band might set up, but it's something to definitely pay attention to later on this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am growing really concerned about plinkers east of 95 in NC that could really hold back on accum. Need someone to talk me down, NAM soundings are ugly, GFS flirts with 0C around 800mb at PGV, but would likely be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 17z RAP has about .80"QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I find it interesting how the meager returns northwest of the triad region in nc have been reaching the ground, but what looks like heavier returns down in GA took a couple of hours to make it to the surface. Anyone know why that may be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I find it interesting how the meager returns northwest of the triad region in nc have been reaching the ground, but what looks like heavier returns down in GA took a couple of hours to make it to the surface. Anyone know why that may be? Yeah those bands are starting to really put it down in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Needless to say, the trends upstream are a very good sign for snow lovers the RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I haven't seen this mentioned since last night so I thought I would ask. What are your thoughts on the current water vapor loop. It looks light the southern system is moving ever so slightly east ne and possibly interacting a little with the northern stream. There is a little blow up on the the water vapor to the east of where this is occurring. Was this interaction modeled or is it something new? Or am I misreading the interaction? http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 unexpected but certainly happy lol. most models are showing a good 2-4" ne ga, far upstate/sw nc. lets hope that discussion from phil last night has a leewide surprise - its looking absolutely within the range of possibilities. the atl stations RPM seem to be showing a good long last snow for most of n ga through about 8-10 tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I haven't seen this mentioned since last night so I thought I would ask. What are your thoughts on the current water vapor loop. It looks light the southern system is moving ever so slightly east ne and possibly interacting a little with the northern stream. There is a little blow up on the the water vapor to the east of where this is occurring. Was this interaction modeled or is it something new? Or am I misreading the interaction? http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-48 Well it definitely looks like its enhancing mid-level moisture over TX which is then being enhanced downstream. This could potentially explain why we have seen a more extensive precipitation shield on the northern side of this short wave impulse, given that added moisture could help to tighten up the baroclinic zone between the cold/dry air on the N side of the trough vs. the relatively juicy air associated with WSW flow on within the cloud shield. Whether or not this was properly modeled is up for debate, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm stuck on 285 Atlanta is gridlocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Brad P's latest in-house modeled snow accumulations from WCNC out of Charlotte: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I find it interesting how the meager returns northwest of the triad region in nc have been reaching the ground, but what looks like heavier returns down in GA took a couple of hours to make it to the surface. Anyone know why that may be? I think it has to do with distance from radar. The radar at RAH is overshooting the heaviest precip in the triad due to the curvature of the earth. In GA, the distance might be at the perfect spot. The heaviest precip is above the ground, directly in the radar beam, but the beam is still a few hundred feet in the air. Look at different elevation angles and you will notice the differences. ETA: Also notice how the band gets closer to the RAH radar it shows higher reflectivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest Rap (17z run) paints a nice swath of .5+ across the central piedmont. RDU looks to be in the .6-.7 range, but I don't have a graphic that shows the counties, so I can't be sure. Interestingly, there is a minimum of precip in SC. What is the model picking up on that would lead to that? Oh yeh...that's def into Wake County...probably almost to about Alamance/Orange County (Burlington/Chapel Hill) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncstatered21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am growing really concerned about plinkers east of 95 in NC that could really hold back on accum. Need someone to talk me down, NAM soundings are ugly, GFS flirts with 0C around 800mb at PGV, but would likely be all snow. I can't talk you down cause I'm concerned myself. All this hype about our area and ppl in Raleigh talking about "move west move west" and I'm just like plz no. And of course it doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think it has to do with distance from radar. The radar at RAH is overshooting the heaviest precip in the triad due to the curvature of the earth. In GA, the distance might be at the perfect spot. The heaviest precip is above the ground, directly in the radar beam, but the beam is still a few hundred feet in the air. Look at different elevation angles and you will notice the differences. ETA: Also notice how the band gets closer to the RAH radar it shows higher reflectivities. Excellent point storm. This is especially more difficult with snow reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I find it interesting how the meager returns northwest of the triad region in nc have been reaching the ground, but what looks like heavier returns down in GA took a couple of hours to make it to the surface. Anyone know why that may be? Well not everyone is at the same elevation. Folks in C/S GA are probably sub 500 ft in elevation so it takes a longer time for the atmosphere to fully saturate before those echoes hit the ground. However, over the foothills and mountains of WNC, you see elevations in the 750-2000 ft range, which results in significantly less time for those precipitation elements to sublimate before hitting the ground. Hence, it reaches the ground sooner with seemingly less reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GSP keeps going up on totals in Upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm stuck on 285 Atlanta is gridlocked ugh - hope you are close to home. i was going to try and go to my sisters in athens where it was to be heavier than mby...glad i decided to not try it. you have a charge charger for your phone i am assuming and hoping edited to add: GSP keeps going up on totals in Upstate SC. wow now those are some very impressive total increases. last time i checked that map was not too long ago and it did not look like that! they have really bumped those up from yesterday i know people have model favorites etc but as oconeewx and i were talking last night for our area and microclimate it does great for these types of events hands down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like the 18z Rap increased precip amounts slightly for central NC and SC and filled in that hole in SC, to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Also a great increase in the SW mountains and upper SC mountains. Still banking on my 2"+ here. GSP keeps going up on totals in Upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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