1/28 - 1/30 Storm Thread II

[FLweather]

Don't you need a more organized and mature low pressure system for a comma head to form though?

 

Thats the thing about... right now if the trends are showing to be true. Its organizing into a mature system which as the day progresses will eventually be over NC/SC which is why the models keep bumping up the totals. 

[MarkSC]

That second wave coming up the gulf stream on Thursday is going to be interesting to watch. NAM is oh so close to a nice hit for the SC coast. Looks like a very sharp cutoff with the precip line.

[Pilotwx]

I don't know what to make of it yet but if you look 2 water vapor you can see 2 pieces that look like they will phase or just miss each other. 1 in mexico the other in Western Texas. Something to keep your eye on.

[Shawn]

That dry slot over the northern part of Upstate SC....ugh.  We're cursed in this area. Hopefully the moisture continues to trend northwest but I am not hopeful.

 

Don't take the total precip/radar to heart on the RAP.  Use it for trends on the smaller scale.  If precip is ramping up; it's a good sign more moisture will get involved.

[BIG FROSTY]

no matter what Map or model you look at the northern foothills still seem to be getting the least out of this, but that has become the norm here for the last several years.

[FallsLake]

That dry slot over the northern part of Upstate SC....ugh.  We're cursed in this area. Hopefully the moisture continues to trend northwest but I am not hopeful.

Still shows you .2 or greater; which could translate to around 3 inches of snow. Not bad for where you where a day back.

[beanskip]

Question for a pro or wise weenie. Is this a sleet sounding or is the frozen layer not cold enough to freeze the relatively warm precip falling through? In the bigger picture, what are the guidelines on how warm upper levels can be/how cold lower levels have to be for precip to be sleet vs. CR?

Date: 12 hour Eta valid 0Z WED 29 JAN 14Station: KVPSLatitude:   30.48Longitude: -86.53-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1019    21   0.5  -0.5  93  1.0   0.0 358  14 272.2 272.8 272.2 281.9  3.60  1 1000   169  -1.6  -2.3  95  0.6  -1.9 360  19 271.5 272.0 271.3 280.2  3.23  2  950   575  -3.5  -4.0  96  0.5  -3.6  12  25 273.7 274.2 272.2 281.9  3.00  3  900  1016   6.5   5.9  96  0.6   6.2 278  22 288.2 289.4 284.0 306.5  6.48  4  850  1485   5.3   4.7  96  0.5   5.0 269  30 291.7 292.8 285.2 309.9  6.33  5  800  1979   3.5   3.4 100  0.1   3.4 251  25 294.8 295.9 286.3 312.7  6.12  6  750  2503   2.6   2.6 100  0.0   2.7 232  36 299.4 300.6 288.0 317.8  6.18  7  700  3059   0.3   0.2 100  0.1   0.3 223  47 302.8 303.8 288.6 319.6  5.56  8  650  3651  -2.6  -2.6 100  0.0  -2.6 225  50 306.0 306.9 289.0 320.9  4.85  9  600  4282  -6.2  -6.3 100  0.1  -6.2 233  59 308.9 309.7 289.2 321.4  3.99 10  550  4958  -9.8 -10.9  92  1.0 -10.2 245  68 312.4 313.0 289.4 322.1  3.03 11  500  5687 -14.5 -16.5  85  2.0 -15.1 254  74 315.4 315.8 289.5 322.4  2.11 12  450  6478 -19.4 -21.7  82  2.3 -20.0 256  81 318.8 319.1 289.9 323.9  1.49 13  400  7342 -25.9 -28.5  79  2.6 -26.4 254  85 321.3 321.5 290.1 324.5  0.91 14  350  8294 -33.4 -36.3  75  3.0 -33.7 250  87 323.8 323.9 290.5 325.5  0.49 15  300  9359 -40.9 -44.4  69  3.4 -41.2 247  97 327.7 327.7 291.3 328.6  0.25 16  250 10578 -48.8 -52.9  62  4.1 -49.0 253 121 333.6 333.6 292.8 334.0  0.11 17  200 12019 -54.7 -67.3  20 12.6 -54.9 252 137 346.2 346.2 295.8 346.3  0.02 18  150 13838 -60.6 -78.8   7 18.2 -60.8 252 121 365.7 365.7 299.8 365.7  0.01 19  100 16287 -70.3 -85.6   9 15.3 -70.4 257  89 391.9 391.9 304.0 391.9  0.00TRP                                             0                              WND                                             0                              

[packfan98]

New 9z SREF plumes are out.  Almost exactly like the 3z for GSO and CLT.

[Shack]

well, if the RAP is right...hold on..lol  Hammers this area as well 

RAP is rippin!

MCN in the 0.7-0.8in precip

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL just said on facebook that there are growing signs that warmer air aloft may result in several hours of sleet/freezing rain for Fayetteville.

[Seminole]

I don't know what to make of it yet but if you look 2 water vapor you can see 2 pieces that look like they will phase or just miss each other. 1 in mexico the other in Western Texas. Something to keep your eye on.

I was just looking at this too. Honestly I don't see how the piece in Mexico is left behind given its proximity. The trough shape looks to aid capturing this piece.

[El Kabong]

RAP is rippin!

MCN in the 0.7-0.8in precip

The question is...what will be rippin?  IP, ZR, snow, or all three!  The precip orientation to our southwest could certainly put us in the bullseye for some of the higher totals.  Hopefully at least half of that qpf will be snow if we can get the temps up above to cooperate.

[Dunkman]

 

Question for a pro or wise weenie. Is this a sleet sounding or is the frozen layer not cold enough to freeze the relatively warm precip falling through? In the bigger picture, what are the guidelines on how warm upper levels can be/how cold lower levels have to be for precip to be sleet vs. CR?

Date: 12 hour Eta valid 0Z WED 29 JAN 14Station: KVPSLatitude:   30.48Longitude: -86.53-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1019    21   0.5  -0.5  93  1.0   0.0 358  14 272.2 272.8 272.2 281.9  3.60  1 1000   169  -1.6  -2.3  95  0.6  -1.9 360  19 271.5 272.0 271.3 280.2  3.23  2  950   575  -3.5  -4.0  96  0.5  -3.6  12  25 273.7 274.2 272.2 281.9  3.00  3  900  1016   6.5   5.9  96  0.6   6.2 278  22 288.2 289.4 284.0 306.5  6.48  4  850  1485   5.3   4.7  96  0.5   5.0 269  30 291.7 292.8 285.2 309.9  6.33  5  800  1979   3.5   3.4 100  0.1   3.4 251  25 294.8 295.9 286.3 312.7  6.12  6  750  2503   2.6   2.6 100  0.0   2.7 232  36 299.4 300.6 288.0 317.8  6.18  7  700  3059   0.3   0.2 100  0.1   0.3 223  47 302.8 303.8 288.6 319.6  5.56  8  650  3651  -2.6  -2.6 100  0.0  -2.6 225  50 306.0 306.9 289.0 320.9  4.85  9  600  4282  -6.2  -6.3 100  0.1  -6.2 233  59 308.9 309.7 289.2 321.4  3.99 10  550  4958  -9.8 -10.9  92  1.0 -10.2 245  68 312.4 313.0 289.4 322.1  3.03 11  500  5687 -14.5 -16.5  85  2.0 -15.1 254  74 315.4 315.8 289.5 322.4  2.11 12  450  6478 -19.4 -21.7  82  2.3 -20.0 256  81 318.8 319.1 289.9 323.9  1.49 13  400  7342 -25.9 -28.5  79  2.6 -26.4 254  85 321.3 321.5 290.1 324.5  0.91 14  350  8294 -33.4 -36.3  75  3.0 -33.7 250  87 323.8 323.9 290.5 325.5  0.49 15  300  9359 -40.9 -44.4  69  3.4 -41.2 247  97 327.7 327.7 291.3 328.6  0.25 16  250 10578 -48.8 -52.9  62  4.1 -49.0 253 121 333.6 333.6 292.8 334.0  0.11 17  200 12019 -54.7 -67.3  20 12.6 -54.9 252 137 346.2 346.2 295.8 346.3  0.02 18  150 13838 -60.6 -78.8   7 18.2 -60.8 252 121 365.7 365.7 299.8 365.7  0.01 19  100 16287 -70.3 -85.6   9 15.3 -70.4 257  89 391.9 391.9 304.0 391.9  0.00TRP                                             0                              WND                                             0                              

I'm not 100% sure I'm either but it looks like a cold rain to me.

[max100]

When this really gets cranking in ATL, I would not be surprised to see temps fall to the upper teens to 22..Rapidly filling in over ATL proper.

[JQPublic]

12z nam.  newest rap is similar.

 

Thanks!

 

As for the radar returns in ATL, wouldn't that be attributable to the dry air. If you look at a non-local radar.. you should be able to see better returns.

[burgertime]

When looking at the RAP I think it's important to understand with waffles in precip totals that's going to greatly depend on banding. This is going to create some sharp cutoffs. Where those start is anyone's guess. 

[Lookout]

 

Question for a pro or wise weenie. Is this a sleet sounding or is the frozen layer not cold enough to freeze the relatively warm precip falling through? In the bigger picture, what are the guidelines on how warm upper levels can be/how cold lower levels have to be for precip to be sleet vs. CR?

Date: 12 hour Eta valid 0Z WED 29 JAN 14Station: KVPSLatitude:   30.48Longitude: -86.53-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1019    21   0.5  -0.5  93  1.0   0.0 358  14 272.2 272.8 272.2 281.9  3.60  1 1000   169  -1.6  -2.3  95  0.6  -1.9 360  19 271.5 272.0 271.3 280.2  3.23  2  950   575  -3.5  -4.0  96  0.5  -3.6  12  25 273.7 274.2 272.2 281.9  3.00  3  900  1016   6.5   5.9  96  0.6   6.2 278  22 288.2 289.4 284.0 306.5  6.48  4  850  1485   5.3   4.7  96  0.5   5.0 269  30 291.7 292.8 285.2 309.9  6.33  5  800  1979   3.5   3.4 100  0.1   3.4 251  25 294.8 295.9 286.3 312.7  6.12  6  750  2503   2.6   2.6 100  0.0   2.7 232  36 299.4 300.6 288.0 317.8  6.18  7  700  3059   0.3   0.2 100  0.1   0.3 223  47 302.8 303.8 288.6 319.6  5.56  8  650  3651  -2.6  -2.6 100  0.0  -2.6 225  50 306.0 306.9 289.0 320.9  4.85  9  600  4282  -6.2  -6.3 100  0.1  -6.2 233  59 308.9 309.7 289.2 321.4  3.99 10  550  4958  -9.8 -10.9  92  1.0 -10.2 245  68 312.4 313.0 289.4 322.1  3.03 11  500  5687 -14.5 -16.5  85  2.0 -15.1 254  74 315.4 315.8 289.5 322.4  2.11 12  450  6478 -19.4 -21.7  82  2.3 -20.0 256  81 318.8 319.1 289.9 323.9  1.49 13  400  7342 -25.9 -28.5  79  2.6 -26.4 254  85 321.3 321.5 290.1 324.5  0.91 14  350  8294 -33.4 -36.3  75  3.0 -33.7 250  87 323.8 323.9 290.5 325.5  0.49 15  300  9359 -40.9 -44.4  69  3.4 -41.2 247  97 327.7 327.7 291.3 328.6  0.25 16  250 10578 -48.8 -52.9  62  4.1 -49.0 253 121 333.6 333.6 292.8 334.0  0.11 17  200 12019 -54.7 -67.3  20 12.6 -54.9 252 137 346.2 346.2 295.8 346.3  0.02 18  150 13838 -60.6 -78.8   7 18.2 -60.8 252 121 365.7 365.7 299.8 365.7  0.01 19  100 16287 -70.3 -85.6   9 15.3 -70.4 257  89 391.9 391.9 304.0 391.9  0.00TRP                                             0                              WND                                             0                              

That would be rain at first. That is a deep warm layer and the cold layer at the surface isn't deep or cold enough. However I would imagine it dropping enough for freezing rain pretty soon with the wetbulb at 0. But thanks to that warm layer it wouldn't freeze too fast.

[DixieBlizzard]

How useful is the SREF at this range? On the 9z, plumes are firmly in the 1.5 to 3" category for RMG and I am about 20 miles NE of that location. Seems that would translate well for locations further east in NGA as well.

[Wow]

Precip shield is still trending NW on the RAP.  Take it w/ a grain a salt of course, but this does fall in line with what we've seen so far regarding the overall trend here.

 

14z RAP trend loop at 10 hrs: http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=rap&run_time=14z&param=850mbTSLPprecip&map=US&run_hour=10&loop=trend

[packbacker]

Precip shield is still trending NW on the RAP. Take it w/ a grain a salt of course, but this does fall in line with what we've seen so far regarding the overall trend here.

Sure does look overdone though. Cut precip by a 1/3 is probably a good bet.

[Thrasher Fan]

Latest from GSP on totals:

 

[chapelhillwx]

New 14z RAP is tickling 1" for the eastern Triangle. MUCH juicier.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

NWS BMX is getting several requests for a Civil Emergency Message urging residents to stay off the roads.  Not something you see every day.

[burgertime]

Precip shield is still trending NW on the RAP.  Take it w/ a grain a salt of course, but this does fall in line with what we've seen so far regarding the overall trend here.

 

14z RAP trend loop at 10 hrs: http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=rap&run_time=14z&param=850mbTSLPprecip&map=US&run_hour=10&loop=trend

 

Yep for folks just north and west of CLT it really ramps up precip. Spots that had .10 are now getting .20. 

[strongwxnc]

Sure does. This is really going in line with the latest radar trends. 

Thanks for the RAP WOW.

Yep for folks just north and west of CLT it really ramps up precip. Spots that had .10 are now getting .20. 

[BullCityWx]

Winter Storm Warning now for York County. GSP going with nearly 4" for the eastern half of the county.

[Wow]

Yep for folks just north and west of CLT it really ramps up precip. Spots that had .10 are now getting .20. 

 

I think I-85 folks may want to pay attention here... could be a nice band of heavier precip near here.  0.75" qpf or more is definitely possible closer to CLT.

[WxJordan]

Here may be part of the reason for the increasing totals across the area...

A small low is trying to develop in western NC. I know it is weak, but when you combine it with the upper level features, it has the potential to be a wild card in this situation. It also has the potential to surprise a lot of people.

 

[Amos83]

GSP uppping totals for the CLT metro, upped easter Meck and most of Cabarrus Co to the 2.5-3" range, was only in the 1.5 - 2"

[NCWeSU]

Here may be part of the reason for the increasing totals across the area...

A small low is trying to develop in western NC. I know it is weak, but when you combine it with the upper level features, it has the potential to be a wild card in this situation. It also has the potential to surprise a lot of people.

 

 

I also think this low is going to enhance warming aloft and could lead to some sleet for some that weren't expecting it, including the RDU area.  At the very least we could see some decreased ratios.  12z NAM is picking up on this.  Could see some lower snow totals because of that unfortunately.