wx n of atl Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am in downtown Atlanta and I could not believe the amount of people on the road.. If this thing really drops some snow then it really is going to be bad on the roads. Will post update when I see snow.. I am several stories high in the sky next with a good look of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think we'll be okay once the precip gets here and we won't be wasting much. Probably why the NAM backed off on precip, ratios should go up as it will only be colder now. The 12z runs of the NAMs and RGEM should have this factored as should the a RAP but the RAP is bad outside of 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's snow here really fine snow flakes. I live near Pilot Mountain, which is in Surry County Northern foothills region. So don't worry about the saturation it will happen. And it is turning the roads white No virga here in southside VA! Already have a dusting, which is more than anyone local called for period. That's encouraging and great news for you guys, too. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Just looking out the window they are making it pretty far down here right now. Been virga-ing steadily since I got up this morning around 4:30. Snowjam '88 redux? Yeah it's really coming down aloft here but the returns aren't nearly as heavy as south of atlanta. So if anyone is in or near that location, let us know if you see anything. This will give everyone else some idea of how long and how heavy it has to be to reach the surface. even though its virga, i will admit it is certainly nice to see the radars all starting to fill in (usually its the opposite it seems). the heavier returns are showing up near atl so hopefully you are right and it will soon saturate and reach the ground. The 06z runs came in wetter here and of course the rap now has 0.50 into the atlanta area and over this way. So hopefully this is a sign the heavier totals indeed will be realized. btw, to show you how crazy that eddie is, winds have been dead calm here for several hours and only 5mph or so all night while atlanta, gainesville, etc were gusting into the 20s until not long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Jonathan, on 28 Jan 2014 - 08:03 AM, said:No virga here in southside VA! Already have a dusting, which is more than anyone local called for period. Good to know. Dry up here so far, but that's encouraging. Sticking to the roads any? RAP says we get in on a little of the fun later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 btw, I know this is an observation but it's relevant for everyone else but local station here said sleet is being reported in hogansville already. That's southwest of atlanta for anyone wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Just checking in so apologies if this is redundant, but I'm wondering if what the models are REALLY struggling with the is the DRYNESS of the cold air mass. Checking 7 a.m. obs on the Gulf Coast, wet bulbs are ALREADY at or below freezing! Hurlburt 39/13 WB of 30.7 ; Eglin 39/19 WB of 32.3; Crestview 37/13 WB of 29.7. Even Destin is 42/21 WB of 34.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looking @ WV there is an area out in west texas that I feel will really get this thing cranking later. Also note the flow of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looking @ WV there is an area out in west texas that I feel will really get this thing cranking later. Also note the flow of moisture. I was watching that this morning. I think something is about to happen down there, that's a lot of digging and it's headed toward the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looking @ WV there is an area out in west texas that I feel will really get this thing cranking later. Also note the flow of moisture. Whitened roads there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can anyone with better diagnostic skills than me weigh in on our northern and southern energy and the interaction going on. Last night it seemed that the southern energy was modeled to come further east resulting in better interaction with the digging northern energy. This would result in a little more north/west enhancement. Is this really happening this morning? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I was watching that this morning. I think something is about to happen down there, that's a lot of digging and it's headed toward the Gulf. 2 things i think could happen with it. 1 is turn the flow more Northernly 2.) is slow the storm down and really get the moisture going. I admit i don't know for sure just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Whitened roads there? Yes, very fine flakes as expected with the higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't understand how models try to warm us ip in GA with literally no evap cooling. With td in single digits and teens, I find that very hard to believe. I also think models are too quick bringing this qpf in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah it's really coming down aloft here but the returns aren't nearly as heavy as south of atlanta. So if anyone is in or near that location, let us know if you see anything. This will give everyone else some idea of how long and how heavy it has to be to reach the surface. The 06z runs came in wetter here and of course the rap now has 0.50 into the atlanta area and over this way. So hopefully this is a sign the heavier totals indeed will be realized. btw, to show you how crazy that eddie is, winds have been dead calm here for several hours and only 5mph or so all night while atlanta, gainesville, etc were gusting into the 20s until not long ago. Light sleet started at 8:20. That is a most happy making sound I love this winter!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12Z RPM has about 2" over basically the entire ATL Metro from about noon to 9 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest RAP is shifting that band of heavier moisture west in central NC. MBY keeps inching closer to the .50 mark. Gonna greatly depend on the bands we get under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 12Z RPM has about 2" over basically the entire ATL Metro from about noon to 9 PM. Well you could def. say that is overperforming for ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thekidcurtis Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 For those in the RDU area, heard Big Weather sell this as being a 10:1 to begin with and as the evening progressed it could become a 17 or 18:1. I know there's been small talk throughout the latter half of discussions abt this matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That is the truth burger. Also closely monitoring the RAP. I have it out to hr 08 and the slug looks good in the mountains and foothills . Latest RAP is shifting that band of heavier moisture west in central NC. MBY keeps inching closer to the .50 mark. Gonna greatly depend on the bands we get under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM didn't have precip into ATL until after 2pm, GFS was around 10am, looks like GFS is handling this a little better which is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 That is the truth burger. Also closely monitoring the RAP. I have it out to hr 08 and the slug looks good in the mountains and foothills . Just so you know Instantweathermaps.com has the RAP out before twister. Here is the final QPF output compared to the last hour 11z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z RAP definitely seems to have shrunk that little dry slot to the NE of Atlanta. Now i'm back to being at the .4 mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Burger, I know this has been asked a million times, but just to be clear, the total QPF map you posted, is that AFTER evaporitive cooling? I think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thanks. Marked improvement in the 12! Just so you know Instantweathermaps.com has the RAP out before twister. Here is the final QPF output compared to the last hour 11z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I actually think models are a bit too quick moving the precip in. I'm talking about what will actually hit the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Burger, I know this has been asked a million times, but just to be clear, the total QPF map you posted, is that AFTER evaporitive cooling? I think it is. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Burger, I know this has been asked a million times, but just to be clear, the total QPF map you posted, is that AFTER evaporitive cooling? I think it is. Yes it takes that into affect. Even if it didn't and we assumed that the RAH estimate of .15 was correct that still leaves much of the east with .40 which would be 15:1 ratios so no complaining if it pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hows this for the donut hole of death for us Bham folks? Im bout to go sit in the bath tub with my toaster plugged in, groundhog day style. Someone give me a reason to hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest RAP is shifting that band of heavier moisture west in central NC. MBY keeps inching closer to the .50 mark. Gonna greatly depend on the bands we get under. Honestly looking at the 500mb flow it shows the trough sharpening up over TX,LA,AR which would pull everything back further west. Considering the looks on WV I would expect this trend to continue and the model runs by rap to continue and even get better/wetter along the I85 corridor. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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