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1/28 - 1/30 Storm Thread II


burgertime

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I think we'll be okay once the precip gets here and we won't be wasting much.

Probably why the NAM backed off on precip, ratios should go up as it will only be colder now. The 12z runs of the NAMs and RGEM should have this factored as should the a RAP but the RAP is bad outside of 10 hours.

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It's snow here really fine snow flakes. I live near Pilot Mountain, which is in Surry County Northern foothills region. So don't worry about the saturation it will happen.

 

And it is turning the roads white

 

 

No virga here in southside VA! Already have a dusting, which is more than anyone local called for period.

 

That's encouraging and great news for you guys, too. Thanks.

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Just looking out the window they are making it pretty far down here right now. Been virga-ing steadily since I got up this morning around 4:30. 

 

 

 

 

Snowjam '88 redux? 

 

 

Yeah it's really coming down aloft here but the returns aren't nearly as heavy as south of atlanta. So if anyone is in or near that location, let us know if you see anything. This will give everyone else some idea of how long and how heavy it has to be to reach the surface.

even though its virga, i will admit it is certainly nice to see the radars all starting to fill in (usually its the opposite it seems).  the heavier returns are showing up near atl so hopefully you are right and it will soon saturate and reach the ground.

The 06z runs came in wetter here and of course the rap now has 0.50 into the atlanta area and over this way. So hopefully this is a sign the heavier totals indeed will be realized. btw, to show you how crazy that eddie is, winds have been dead calm here for several hours and only 5mph or so all night while atlanta, gainesville, etc were gusting into the 20s until not long ago.

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Jonathan, on 28 Jan 2014 - 08:03 AM, said:

No virga here in southside VA! Already have a dusting, which is more than anyone local called for period.

 

Good to know. Dry up here so far, but that's encouraging. Sticking to the roads any? RAP says we get in on a little of the fun later on.

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Just checking in so apologies if this is redundant, but I'm wondering if what the models are REALLY struggling with the is the DRYNESS of the cold air mass. Checking 7 a.m. obs on the Gulf Coast, wet bulbs are ALREADY at or below freezing! Hurlburt 39/13 WB of 30.7 ; Eglin 39/19 WB of 32.3; Crestview 37/13 WB of 29.7. Even Destin is 42/21 WB of 34.5.

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Can anyone with better diagnostic skills than me weigh in on our northern and southern energy and the interaction going on.  Last night it seemed that the southern energy was modeled to come further east resulting in better interaction with the digging northern energy.  This would result in a little more north/west enhancement.  Is this really happening this morning?  Thanks!

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I was watching that this morning. I think something is about to happen down there, that's a lot of digging and it's headed toward the Gulf.

2 things i think could happen with it. 1 is turn the flow more Northernly 2.) is slow the storm down and really get the moisture going. 

I admit i don't know for sure just a guess.

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Yeah it's really coming down aloft here but the returns aren't nearly as heavy as south of atlanta. So if anyone is in or near that location, let us know if you see anything. This will give everyone else some idea of how long and how heavy it has to be to reach the surface.

The 06z runs came in wetter here and of course the rap now has 0.50 into the atlanta area and over this way. So hopefully this is a sign the heavier totals indeed will be realized. btw, to show you how crazy that eddie is, winds have been dead calm here for several hours and only 5mph or so all night while atlanta, gainesville, etc were gusting into the 20s until not long ago.

Light sleet started at 8:20.  That is a most happy making sound :)  I love this winter!!  T

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That is the truth burger. Also closely monitoring the RAP. I have it out to hr 08 and the slug looks good in the mountains and foothills .

Latest RAP is shifting that band of heavier moisture west in central NC. MBY keeps inching closer to the .50 mark. Gonna greatly depend on the bands we get under. 

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Burger, I know this has been asked a million times, but just to be clear, the total QPF map you posted, is that AFTER evaporitive cooling? I think it is.

 

Yes it takes that into affect. Even if it didn't and we assumed that the RAH estimate of .15 was correct that still leaves much of the east with .40 which would be 15:1 ratios so no complaining if it pans out! 

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Latest RAP is shifting that band of heavier moisture west in central NC. MBY keeps inching closer to the .50 mark. Gonna greatly depend on the bands we get under. 

 

 

Honestly looking at the 500mb flow it shows the trough sharpening up over TX,LA,AR which would pull everything back further west.

 

Considering the looks on WV I would expect this trend to continue and the model runs by rap to continue and even get better/wetter along the I85 corridor.

 

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

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