Solak Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 06z GFS this morning now has us getting .80" for this event per MeteoStar... that's up from .63" on the 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 4km NAM also has a bit more precip than the 40km nam over Triangle. Appears things keep trending a little more wetter and westward, but the winter storm warning only mentions 2 to 4 inches of snow here. Looks lik it should be double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is for NC folks. Help me refresh my memory. Guidance is showing temps falling into the teens with snowfall. The last time NC piedmont had anything close to this was around Jan of 2010 right? I know the year is right but not sure on the date. I know there was widespread temps in the 15-20 degree range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I must admit that this latest GSP map was a nice surprise to wake up to this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I must admit that this latest GSP map was a nice surprise to wake up to this morning: Must have missed that one this morning. I assume based on overnight trends and now casting. Looks good to me teach! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I must admit that this latest GSP map was a nice surprise to wake up to this morning: Time for my weenie moment. Only in a storm where it's progged in NC that the further SE you are the better could literally N/S/E/W of Charlotte there is more snow forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest RAP is awfully close to putting that .50 into CLT. Of course it if has a NW bias you can probably shift it 50 miles southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is for NC folks. Help me refresh my memory. Guidance is showing temps falling into the teens with snowfall. The last time NC piedmont had anything close to this was around Jan of 2010 right? I know the year is right but not sure on the date. I know there was widespread temps in the 15-20 degree range. 10th and 11th were the dates. But we have a hefty dusting up here in Boone with all of the roads white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest RAP is awfully close to putting that .50 into CLT. Of course it if has a NW bias you can probably shift it 50 miles southeast. That lee side screw zone is painfully evident on that map. I’m hoping I don’t really have to deal with that here, even though the RAP shows it extending down into NE GA. From my experience, with a WSWflow, we should be far enough south to not see the rain shadow effect from the mountains. Either way, it’s frustrating to see the RAP drop .15inches here while 15 miles to my Northwest AND 15 miles to my Southeast it’s dropping close to a 1/2 inch of liquid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 That lee side screw zone is painfully evident on that map. I’m hoping I don’t really have to deal with that here, even though the RAP shows it extending down into NE GA. From my experience, with a WSWflow, we should be far enough south to not see the rain shadow effect from the mountains. Either way, it’s frustrating to see the RAP drop .15inches here while 15 miles to my Northwest AND 15 miles to my Southeast it’s dropping close to a 1/2 inch of liquid! Personally I think you're in a prime spot for that first bit of banding because of the overrunning. The RAP has been switching where the really good banding sets up, so we're likely not to know until we actually see it heading towards up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That lee side screw zone is painfully evident on that map. I’m hoping I don’t really have to deal with that here, even though the RAP shows it extending down into NE GA. From my experience, with a WSWflow, we should be far enough south to not see the rain shadow effect from the mountains. Either way, it’s frustrating to see the RAP drop .15inches here while 15 miles to my Northwest AND 15 miles to my Southeast it’s dropping close to a 1/2 inch of liquid! i noticed that too and its annoying. please make it go away!! on a more realistic note that really really surprises me in this instance. usually the nw winds and downsloping causes that. this moisture seems to be coming at a different angle and one that used to have us do pretty well. not sure whats up with that and hope its a fluke but afraid it might not be since its usually been true when showing up like that it looks "smaller" this morning (i was posting about this on the ipad when it crashed and had to open laptop lol. not usually up and functioning before 7). unless the over running will get wrung out more on the mtns and thus leave ne ga through the upstate a bit drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 10th and 11th were the dates. But we have a hefty dusting up here in Boone with all of the roads white. Thanks. Yeah that band is really growing from Boone to South of Lynchburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 With the different direction of the overrunning, it appears that Asheville and maybe the SW facing slopes of the southern apps. could get some enhanced upslope snows? It will be interesting to see how the day unfolds. Still looks to be a sharp gradient in the Triad region. If the overrunning first part of the event doesn't pan out, there will be very little to nothing because we will get nada from the main gulf/atlantic system I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 i noticed that too and its annoying. please make it go away!! on a more realistic note that really really surprises me in this instance. usually the nw winds and downsloping causes that. this moisture seems to be coming at a different angle and one that used to have us do pretty well. not sure whats up with that and hope its a fluke but afraid it might not be since its usually been true when showing up like that it looks "smaller" this morning (i was posting about this on the ipad when it crashed and had to open laptop lol. not usually up and functioning before 7). unless the over running will get wrung out more on the mtns and thus leave ne ga through the upstate a bit drier Yea, I feel like I have a good memory of this type situation, and I normally barely eek out of any downslope effects with the flow being depicted. Places further North/East of me will lose some precip, no doubt. I definitely think you will be fine. I’d be surprised if you don’t pick up 2 or 3 inches from this. Hopefully the RAP will fill in that minima down our way over the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 From NWS RAH: 620 AM UPDATE... LATEST SFC AND MESO ANALYSIS INDICATE THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED BONE DRY AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING. SUB-ZERO DEWPOINTS BEING REPORTED BY SEVERAL SITES IN THE PIEDMONT...RESULTING IN DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25- 30 DEGREES. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HAD DEWPOINTS THIS LOW. THIS HAS RAISED A RED FLAG CONCERNING PRECIP AMOUNTS LATER TODAY. INITIAL MODEL PRECIP WILL NEED TO GO INTO MOISTENING THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER BEFORE PRECIP ACTUALLY REACHES THE SURFACE. PREVIOUS STUDIES SUGGEST THAT AS MUCH AS 0.15 LIQUID EQUIVALENT NEEDED TO MOISTEN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER SUFFICIENTLY TO REACH SATURATION. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE LOWERED LIQUID AMOUNTS ABOUT 25 PERCENT FROM EARLIER FORECAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ABOUT AN INCH LOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...BUT STILL WARNING CRITERIA WHERE THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. PER MESO ANALYSIS...SFC LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OFF OF THE NORTHERN FL/GEORGIA COAST PER SFC PRESSURE AND SFC WIND ANALYSIS ...VERY CLOSE TO MODEL PREDICTIONS. THUS...MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 620 AM FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO: 1.) DELAY ONSET OF CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES; 2.) ADJUSTED PRECIP AMOUNTS DOWNWARD MOST SPOTS...RESULTING IN SNOW TOTALS ABOUT AN INCH LOWER THAN EARLIER THINKING. 3.) ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT REALITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest RAP is awfully close to putting that .50 into CLT. Of course it if has a NW bias you can probably shift it 50 miles southeast. That lee side screw zone is painfully evident on that map. I’m hoping I don’t really have to deal with that here, even though the RAP shows it extending down into NE GA. From my experience, with a WSWflow, we should be far enough south to not see the rain shadow effect from the mountains. Either way, it’s frustrating to see the RAP drop .15inches here while 15 miles to my Northwest AND 15 miles to my Southeast it’s dropping close to a 1/2 inch of liquid! Very well stated sir! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There were some on this board earlier that mentioned column saturation taking a good bit of the precip away from accumulations. Never expected .15 though. Yikes. Guess they have no precedent model guidance to measure this dry of an advection coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not too worried about the dry air. There is already a report of snow at Fort Bragg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Keep up the trend RAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah I noticed that warm bubble on that run. Its probably wrong in regards to surface temps with the amount of moisture streaming over head. No way ATL makes into the 40s. But boy does it get wild with the simulated radar. Thats probably the best run yet for ATL and the Western Carolinas. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=09&fhour=01¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false That simulated radar looks like it has a small circulation / low moving from NEGA over GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Long way to go on this one but with the way the radar is filling in back to our west & with white ground already. I would say this, so far, is a big win for Robert in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yea, I feel like I have a good memory of this type situation, and I normally barely eek out of any downslope effects with the flow being depicted. Places further North/East of me will lose some precip, no doubt. I definitely think you will be fine. I’d be surprised if you don’t pick up 2 or 3 inches from this. Hopefully the RAP will fill in that minima down our way over the next few runs. ok i feel a little better with my memory lol. couple of years ago this area kept getting clobbered so not sure about that drier area. gsp updated to 1-1.5 so just a little more for the 2" threshold That simulated radar looks like it has a small circulation / low moving from NEGA over GSP wow, i will take that one, please. i am wondering if the lower amounts showing up are for more virga with the low dewpoints. simulated radar showing some pretty good echos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Personally I think you're in a prime spot for that first bit of banding because of the overrunning. The RAP has been switching where the really good banding sets up, so we're likely not to know until we actually see it heading towards up on radar. Definately nowcast time. We just need to see how this all plays out. Model runs have shown us various possibilities with subtle variations in where banding sets up. There are a couple of constants however......major precip axis is going to be better the further SE you are and there seems to be a consistant minimum in the upstate (lee of the mountains)......only thing that could really change this would be the phase that the 18Z GFS showed a few days ago and I assuming that is totally off the table at this point. The snow drought in the upstate would be comical if it weren't so frustating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On the KATL radar looks like snow is coming in from the NE and SW. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=FFC&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP at hr 08. Looks juicy around the foothills area for several hours. Keep up the trend RAP! National is looking good this morning http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mrx&product=N0R&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Keep up the trend RAP! Right bc the way its looking between I85 and I95 could have just as high of totals as projected in the east. That simulated radar looks like it has a small circulation / low moving from NEGA over GSP Thats what I though. Had a LP running ATL south and east along 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 On the KATL radar looks like snow is coming in from the NE and SW. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=FFC&loop=yes All virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Careful with these simulated radars as nws is reporting .15 to saturate the column. That's at lot folks when you are only getting .5 or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Right bc the way its looking between I85 and I95 could have just as high of totals as projected in the east. Thats what I though. Had a LP running ATL south and east along 85. Yeah, it screws over my area so bad....wow...I hope that does NOT happen...I don't know where that mini-lp came from, but it's just like a dry slot in an actual large low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Careful with these simulated radars as nws is reporting .15 to saturate the column. That's at lot folks when you are only get .5 or less The RAP is taking into account that if you compare the sim refl to actual surface precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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