oconeexman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 historically things shift and being in the bulls eye days out is horribly disappointing at the end. but i am just not confident in the shift this time like a couple of years ago when that would happen. Yep we've been burned many times being in the bulls eye but not feeling this shift that we need is going to happen. Hopefully we can get a finger running out in front on the NW side as has happened many times and at least pick up a dusting. Usually don't see this depicted until we get inside 24hrs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That would be some fun sledding snow due to the blanket of sleet underneath. Yes it would, hell I would be in wall to wall coverage..hahahaha btw, I do think the NAM is way overdone with QPF, BUT I have seen where it does really good with over-running setups like this. In fact, like someone said before, I have seen the front end QPF be higher since models struggle with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I just leave this here with no comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 SREF earlier this morning for RDU http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-382-0-90967300-1390744676.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 SREF earlier this morning for RDU http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-382-0-90967300-1390744676.jpg 1-12"? I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I just leave this here with no comment. image.jpg I believe that is for that small initial wave not the main system afterwards, not sure though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm not buying the amounts of precip that the NAM is showing. I've always heard that the NAM model is usually way overdone on QPF amounts. Any truth to that?Given the big run-to-run changes, it's probably not a good idea to start talking totals, but the trends are encouraging for the entire SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yes it would, hell I would be in wall to wall coverage..hahahaha btw, I do think the NAM is way overdone with QPF, BUT I have seen where it does really good with over-running setups like this. In fact, like someone said before, I have seen the front end QPF be higher since models struggle with it. Yea I think as we get closer folks near me will be happy. Even if we can squeeze out 3 inches it's a huge win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I just leave this here with no comment. image.jpg One, no one knows right now exactly what's going to happen. Two, you know how conservative they are and three, that was also early this morning. Let's see if they start to change their tune a little later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.NOUS42 KWNO 261526ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1525Z SUN JAN 26 2014NCEP HAS NOTED SOME COMPUTING DELAYS AT THE END OF THE 12Z NAMAND CASCADING INTO OTHER MODELS IN THE 12Z SUITE...SYSTEMANALYSTS ARE INVESTIGATING THE SITUATION HOPING TO MITIGATE ANYFURTHER DELAYS. ANOTHER NOTICE WILL FOLLOW WITH MORE INFORMATIONIF DELAYS ARE MITIGATED OR THEY CONTINUE WITH THE 12Z SUITE...OURAPOLOGIES FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm guessing it's mainly how it handles the southern energy? My bigger fear is that that energy gets shunted south with the western energy moving east ever so slightly. 12z was reassuring but I guess we'll see what the GFS and Euro have to say. Hard to tell as the wx Canada graphics cutoff the bottom half of TX. Just comparing 48hrs on 0z to 36 this run, it does look like the energy does a better job ejecting out of the Baja, initial 700mb RH plume is off the SE Coast by this time, but there is evidence precip would start to gather in TX as the wave begin to interact. Big thing I noticed on the NAM around 60hrs was the orientation of the southern shortwave, it was more towards neutral which would help it move more ene, as opposed to just due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Given the big run-to-run changes, it's probably not a good idea to start talking totals, but the trends are encouraging for the entire SE. The only sure bet is if the nam is right on this event it's amounts are too high, how high is tough to say because we have no other models yet showing the same idea it would help a lot if we had the GFS or euro to compare amounts since they are more reasonable on QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The only sure bet is if the nam is right on this event it's amounts are too high, how high is tough to say because we have no other models yet showing the same idea it would help a lot if we had the GFS or euro to compare amounts since they are more reasonable on QPFYeah, for sure. I think the location of the precip shield and the gradations are more important than the exact amounts. Regardless, for eastern NC and eastern SC, even if you cut the amounts in half, it's still a pretty good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hard to tell as the wx Canada graphics cutoff the bottom half of TX. Just comparing 48hrs on 0z to 36 this run, it does look like the energy does a better job ejecting out of the Baja, initial 700mb RH plume is off the SE Coast by this time, but there is evidence precip would start to gather in TX as the wave begin to interact. Big thing I noticed on the NAM around 60hrs was the orientation of the southern shortwave, it was more towards neutral which would help it move more ene, as opposed to just due east. Thanks! I usually just wait for Meteogram images to come out when looking at the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 NCEP HAS NOTED SOME COMPUTING DELAYS AT THE END OF THE 12Z NAM AND CASCADING INTO OTHER MODELS IN THE 12Z SUITE...SYSTEM ANALYSTS ARE INVESTIGATING THE SITUATION HOPING TO MITIGATE ANY FURTHER DELAYS. ANOTHER NOTICE WILL FOLLOW WITH MORE INFORMATION IF DELAYS ARE MITIGATED OR THEY CONTINUE WITH THE 12Z SUITE...OUR APOLOGIES FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. FYI GFS has now began rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Just out to 12 GFS looks further west of the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Here is this morning's run of in house model at SE VA TV station... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The RGEM not joining the nam yet at 48 hours it has way less precip breaking out over TX and the WRN Gulf USA v/s rest if world right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Since we only have one frame, in the first image, the UL is now cut-off out in the SW, it wasn't on the 06Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The west ridge is stronger and the vort dropping from Canada is further west and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Burg your right @27 the northern energy is farther west. GFS has those 2 vorts down in baja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 @36 further west with the GFS and that northern energy compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS HR 36, is about same spot with southern energy, but is Further west a tick stronger with the northern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 HR42 the southern shortwave is a smidge east (from 0z run) and abit stronger, and the northern piece is a bit further west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 @45 northern energy still further west southern shortwave looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 historically things shift and being in the bulls eye days out is horribly disappointing at the end. but i am just not confident in the shift this time like a couple of years ago when that would happen. Yep we've been burned many times being in the bulls eye but not feeling this shift that we need is going to happen. Hopefully we can get a finger running out in front on the NW side as has happened many times and at least pick up a dusting. Usually don't see this depicted until we get inside 24hrs though. there are some frames that show a finger moving NE into ne ga, the upstate and part of sw nc - a lot i think are hoping for the biggie and may be disappointed. i will be happy to see some snow fall and turn things white lol (although yes i would love a good thumping) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 @48 southern shortwave a good bit stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS much wetter through hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 gfs wetter for the coast thru 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS much wetter through hour 60 Moving NW toward ATL .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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