SBUWX23 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is likely why many SREF members have higher totals. The SREF do use a diagnosing rime factor or snow density factor. im starting to think ratios will be over 15:1 at rdu for this storm just looking at a combo of several differnt sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't know if anyone cares about the Hampton Roads area but we seem to be in the middle of the SE and MA regional threads. I'm going 7 in Newport News 9 in Hampton and 11 in VB. I do think that any bust will occur on the high side as the southern stream vort has trended east and the front has been slower to advance south than modeled. Thanks for the info...This sounds encouraging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 03z RAP just dropped .2 - .5 qfp on the metro atlanta area. The RAP is quickly becoming my favorite model lol. Move over GFS and NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Atlanta gets hammered by the 03z RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 At first I thought you meant snowfall... I'm getting nervous about the potential for a piedmont split, with banding in the foothills from the northern stream piece, and the big coastal low giving the coastal plain snow, and nothing in the middle. Thoughts? nah i think this will be 99%overrunning event. not really dynamically driven where the coastal is supposed to bomb out. think we're in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't know if anyone cares about the Hampton Roads area but we seem to be in the middle of the SE and MA regional threads. I'm going 7 in Newport News 9 in Hampton and 11 in VB. I do think that any bust will occur on the high side as the southern stream vort has trended east and the front has been slower to advance south than modeled. Thanks for the input. I was just comparing models and you can definitely see just from the 18z runs the SSvort keeps getting more and more east, 12z runs was even more extreme... 18z GFS at hour 30 0z at hour 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WRAL just mentioned the possibility of the high volume snow band narrowing and moving slightly further nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WRAL just mentioned the possibility of the high volume snow band narrowing and moving slightly further nw.That might explain the model totals, but it's hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 One thing of note: The RAP is much less bullish with 2m cold air than, say, the 0z NAM. To wit, at 21z Tuesday, the 0z NAM has all of N.C., S.C. and Alabama (save for tiny area of SE Ala.),the northern 2/3 of Georgia and the extreme NW FL Panhandle BELOW freezing at 2m. The 3z RAP at 21z Tuesday has the southern third of S.C., almost all of Georgia and the southeastern third of Alabama ABOVE freezing. Hopefully, just something to write off to the out edges of the RAP's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wral Fishel says the warming around Fayetteville tomorrow might produce more sleet zr there while driving higher snow amounts in the Triangle. Also updating their call chart at 11:15 ILM mentioned the warm nose earlier this evening, saying it was a bigger threat east of I-95. They noted it was the factor threatening a major ZR event down along the beach. It could be extrapolated to cause early sleet in FAY, given the afternoon start of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't see that WRAL changed their map. Maybe it's not on their website yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah the wave of low pressure is very weak. The models are keying in on the overrunning which looks pretty good back to the Triangle. nah i think this will be 99%overrunning event. not really dynamically driven where the coastal is supposed to bomb out. think we're in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't see that WRAL changed their map. Maybe it's not on their website yet. They didn't change there totals yet, just talking about the heavier amounts could move further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't see that WRAL changed their map. Maybe it's not on their website yet. Fish said it might likely be adjusted over the next few hours...be sure to check in with Elizabeth Gardner in the early morning yada yada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA1035 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014.UPDATE...OVERALL THINKING FOR THE EVENT STILL HOLDS...HOWEVER HAVE MADESOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. HAVE WARMED UP TEMPSACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THEEVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLYTEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY TO SLOW DOWN THE MENTION OF THE TEENSACROSS MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. WX GRIDSHAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED. REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLEET ACROSS THEATL METRO AREA...BASED ON SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN THATAREA. ALSO TWEAKED SOUTHERN CWA WX GRIDS TO FOCUS MORE ON RAIN ANDFREEZING RAIN INITIALLY AS OPPOSED TO SLEET.BROUGHT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH IN THEAREA BETWEEN MCN AND ATL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA THAT WILL REMAININ SNOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. FOR THOSE THAT SEE SLEETINITIALLY AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW...THE SLEET WILL PLAY AROLE IN BRINGING DOWN POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS AS THE RATIO TOLIQUID IS LOWER /MAYBE 2:1 OR 3:1/ AS OPPOSED TO SNOW /MAYBE 7:1IN THIS SCENARIO/.AGAIN THIS REMAINS A COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION. WITH MULTIPLEPRECIP TYPES EXPECTED...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL VARYGREATLY ACROSS THE CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT ONTHE NORTH SIDE WHERE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLYDIMINISH...BUT ITS IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO TELL EXACTLY WHERETHAT GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Fish said it might likely be adjusted over the next few hours...be sure to check in with Elizabeth Gardner in the early morning yada yadaSo it's really just a ploy to get us to tune in tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I will take the RAP and cash out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So it's really just a ploy to get us to tune in tomorrow morning. Just a very complicated forecast. It's hourly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1035 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .UPDATE... OVERALL THINKING FOR THE EVENT STILL HOLDS...HOWEVER HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. HAVE WARMED UP TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY TO SLOW DOWN THE MENTION OF THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. WX GRIDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED. REMOVED THE MENTION OF SLEET ACROSS THE ATL METRO AREA...BASED ON SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALSO TWEAKED SOUTHERN CWA WX GRIDS TO FOCUS MORE ON RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY AS OPPOSED TO SLEET. BROUGHT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH IN THE AREA BETWEEN MCN AND ATL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN SNOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. FOR THOSE THAT SEE SLEET INITIALLY AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW...THE SLEET WILL PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING DOWN POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS AS THE RATIO TO LIQUID IS LOWER /MAYBE 2:1 OR 3:1/ AS OPPOSED TO SNOW /MAYBE 7:1 IN THIS SCENARIO/. AGAIN THIS REMAINS A COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION. WITH MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES EXPECTED...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE WHERE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH...BUT ITS IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THAT GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. It baffled me as to why that was in the forecast grid for us anyway. I don't recall seeing a sounding over the past day that showed a snow/sleet mix. IDK maybe I overlooked it I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think we are going to have ZR to IP to SN around here....NOT digging that!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I still don't really trust RAP with it's Atlanta slamming. It seems to always overdo the bands. Usually they are less expansive and aren't as heavy, but they are decent to where bands will develop...could be good news for ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 New HRW-NMM is further west and more expansive. Trend is certainly good. Aside from the 00z GFS (which wasn't bad, just didn't change much), there hasn't been a disappointing model run tonight for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is likely why many SREF members have higher totals. The SREF do use a diagnosing rime factor or snow density factor. That's interesting, that would make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know this probably will not happen... but I wish it would. Geeze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 CMC looks good...More precip north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 03z RAP at Hour 18 (4:00 p.m. tomorrow) looks very good for western NC. Many areas are under a nice band of snow, if the RAP is correct. The trends are once again in our favor for locations north and west of I-85. Someone will be surprised tomorrow with more snow than is forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can someone speak to the possible of GC storms or off the coast of GA storms robbing moisture flow? I know that's been a problem in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 03z RAP at Hour 18 (4:00 p.m. tomorrow) looks very good for western NC. Many areas are under a nice band of snow, if the RAP is correct. The trends are once again in our favor for locations north and west of I-85. Someone will be surprised tomorrow with more snow than is forecasted. That looks like a bomb waiting to explode, wasn't there a similar scenario in 03 (Jan. 22/23) that bombed out over the NC/SC Piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 03z RAP at Hour 18 (4:00 p.m. tomorrow) looks very good for western NC. Many areas are under a nice band of snow, if the RAP is correct. The trends are once again in our favor for locations north and west of I-85. Someone will be surprised tomorrow with more snow than is forecasted. The RAP's track of the low offshore the SE appears to be a little closer to the coast vs. other models. If so, and considering other trends, I'd be more optimistic that the ice-storm for CHS-SAV will be much less severe than previously thought. We'll see. I'm not yet forecasting that. I'm chicken lol. The climo favored track for winter storms in SAV-CHS is over central or southern FL, not the N FL pen. It is best if it goes offshore near Daytona or further south. This RAP run may be taking it about 50 miles north of Daytona. That closer in track of the low is more climo favored for major ATL snowstorms by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Removed Image 03z RAP at Hour 18 (4:00 p.m. tomorrow) looks very good for western NC. Many areas are under a nice band of snow, if the RAP is correct. The trends are once again in our favor for locations north and west of I-85. Someone will be surprised tomorrow with more snow than is forecasted. I wonder if this is the frontogenetic banding that SnowGoose69 hinted at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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