Eric Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Trinity, NC. Seriously? Lol, that is a little hole in the wall town next to me and not close to being shown on that map.. I think GSP is referring to the Trinity community(Trinity Church Road) in southeastern Union County, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think GSP is referring to the Trinity community(Trinity Church Road) in southeastern Union County, NC. I knew it has to be something like that. A search for Trinity, NC just gave me the town here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If it moves far enough east, its circulation associated with the vorticity will have the ability to interact with the circulation imparted by the vorticity of the stronger shortwave, causing a mutual interaction. This impact could cause the stronger shortwave to sink further southward, while absorbing the weaker baja shortwave. A deeper shortwave would likely lead to a downstream strengthening of the ridge, which will advect more moisture into the southeast, but also cause mid level thicknesses to rise. In this case the 850 hPa isotherm will also shift north leading to more people in the midlands getting sleet / freezing rain rather than snow. Great discussion Phil and I noticed this too. You can still see the vorts handing off, from parent in Baja to separate vorts to the main axis, even though they're hundreds if not a 1000 miles apart. This is a very strange setup at 5H. You either usually see a gradual absorption or a total miss, here we have a sort of hybrid. The entire length, atleast into the Gulf its likely those two will be drawing on one another, trying to link , but not quite doing it, in the end it ends up shearing the Mexico cutoff I think. The models are and have been struggling with this. For the average weather person who wants to know or cares what this does to the forecast in Tx and points east, it 's important because that vort feeding will keep building precip over the isentropic layers easily. Precip magically appearing out of nowhere on radar. Just when you think it's ending, it "fills in" again in Miss, Tn, Al, etc..... By tomorrow night, its really dicey to predict how the RH fields will look . As I've stated a lot , I don't trust the models on this one very much. For Florida, the immediate Southeast coast, that conveyor belt may continue longer than they show. Not to mention how the overrunning starts west , moreso than any model showed. Fun system and I'm sure there will be suprises, both good and bad, and a good system to study afterwards. It seems Robert has ventured out a bit on his own. Precip arriving in the western carolinas in the morning and then spreading through VA, s MD, and DE. I don't know anyone else saying this. I think he also said he'd be shocked if Hickory only ended up with 1" - I think most everyone else has Hickory at dusting to 1" if that. So, I'm hoping he posts a snowfall map for us so "stake his claim." If he ends up right, I think he has separated himself from the pack - again! TW I made a map but I went conservative. Each run of RAP and latest GFS really captured the western emination a lot better...I sort of anticipated they would eventually. It's hard to say the totals though on snow. Always a tricky thing in the Piedmont since we're more complicated than the Plains and typical Nor'easters that models handle much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Didn't bump the snow totals over warning criteria in CLT to avoid a mass run on bread and milk. I'm still going with 3-6" for the metro based on the latest models. My local Wal-Mart has been out of bread for a while. People panicing over what's forecasted here and I believe it's a tad on the light end for this area specifically; if the EPS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 If you check out the latest rap the southern energy looks like it's already effecting that northern energy at hour 14 almost drawing it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Some evening thoughts... 1. I still believe the 2/6-7/1980 and 3/1-2/1980 storms provide good insight into the upcoming event (Message #1227). 2. Some cities in the South and Southeast will likely set daily snowfall records. Below is a chart showing daily snowfall records for January 28 and January 29 for select cities: 3. What is interesting is that a number of the January 28 records were set in 1899 (highlighted). Following that storm, a temporary period of warming occurred during the February 2-5 period. Richmond reached 63° on February 4. February 6-7 saw colder conditions return and then severe cold gripped much of the region during the February 8-15 period. There was also a blizzard during the severely cold period. While one should not automatically assume anything close to as extreme as the 1899 case, the pattern evolution of temporary warming followed by renewed cold appears applicable. Certainly, the 1/27 12z and 18z runs of the GFS support that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Some evening thoughts... 1. I still believe the 2/6-7/1980 and 3/1-2/1980 storms provide good insight into the upcoming event (Message #1227). 2. Some cities in the South and Southeast will likely set daily snowfall records. Below is a chart showing daily snowfall records for January 28 and January 29 for select cities: 3. What is interesting is that a number of the January 28 records were set in 1899 (highlighted). Following that storm, a temporary period of warming occurred during the February 2-5 period. Richmond reached 63° on February 4. February 6-7 saw colder conditions return and then severe cold gripped much of the region during the February 8-15 period. There was also a blizzard during the severely cold period. While one should not automatically assume anything close to as extreme as the 1899 case, the pattern evolution of temporary warming followed by renewed cold appears applicable. Certainly, the 1/27 12z and 18z runs of the GFS support that idea. 1966 wasn't to shabby either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 1966 wasn't to shabby either. You'd know, gramps. Thanks for the info, Don. I've got decent hopes this can over perform in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Check out the total precip diff. in just one hour of a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Really nice to see all my favorite Red Taggers dropping in. I don't post much in here, but do drop in whenever some Wild Weather is headed my way. Been following the Baja vort non stop since yesterday's 18Z GFS run. Man it's really trucking east bodily. As has been stated, it's been handing off vorts all day, but even though it's not supposed to happen, it sure does look possible it fully phases. Sure don't buy the bulk of the energy spinning off down into old Mexico as have been shown by many models leading up to this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest RAP Pure weather porn for me, CantonWx, EmersonWx and WeatherKid#27! Thanks for posting Burger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Pure weather porn for me, CantonWx, EmersonWx and WeatherKid#27! Thanks for posting Burger.... don't forget snowstorm2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Really nice to see all my favorite Red Taggers dropping in. I don't post much in here, but do drop in whenever some Wild Weather is headed my way. Been following the Baja vort non stop since yesterday's 18Z GFS run. Man it's really trucking east bodily. As has been stated, it's been handing off vorts all day, but even though it's not supposed to happen, it sure does look possible it fully phases. Sure don't buy the bulk of the energy spinning off down into old Mexico as have been shown by many models leading up to this event. I have a consistent animation of the current 500mb vort maps going on. If the whole piece fully phases, it'd be a miracle of epic proporations for some. The big part is heading due SE down towards Mexico with a couple smaller pieces of energy heading to the trough. I really can't see a full phase here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 don't forget snowstorm2011 Sorry man. I bet you did like that map. There seems to be a bad rap on the RAP but it throws us a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I have a consistent animation of the current 500mb vort maps going on. If the whole piece fully phases, it'd be a miracle of epic proporations for some. The big part is heading due SE down towards Mexico with a couple smaller pieces of energy heading to the trough. I really can't see a full phase here. Not happening but it can have an effect as seen on the RAP. It's helping effect that northern energy enough. If that energy keeps sagging south a lot of folks are gonna be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest video from Brad P: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not happening but it can have an effect as seen on the RAP. It's helping effect that northern energy enough. If that energy keeps sagging south a lot of folks are gonna be in the game. Yes, the trough is definitely showing interaction with the weaker energy being slung into the East. There are some good looking pieces that look like they could possibly get involved also being pulled North Eastward. Precipitation will probably increase a bit more than some of the models current project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest video from Brad P: Yep he wasn't too confident about better totals for CLT and western NC. I'm cautiously optimistic but think we end up in the 2-4 range just in my back yard. Big thing for you guys is that initial thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sorry man. I bet you did like that map. There seems to be a bad rap on the RAP but it throws us a bone. A bad RAP? Get it ??!?!? HAHAHAA Ok ok... sorry. It does sometimes catch the early trends before the operationals run so you can easily get sucked into RAP watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not happening but it can have an effect as seen on the RAP. It's helping effect that northern energy enough. If that energy keeps sagging south a lot of folks are gonna be in the game. And I can also see where there can be a bit of a pivot to some of the in-house RPM models due to the sharper trough that could prolong the precip in the piedmont of NC. This is when the major Atlantic moisture gets cranking and pulls slowly east. Someone will benefit from both the overrunning out ahead and the real-deal system too. Looks like it will be between the Triad and Triangle regions in the depictions that I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A bad RAP? Get it ??!?!? HAHAHAA Ok ok... sorry. It does sometimes catch the early trends before the operationals run so you can easily get sucked into RAP watching. RAP has burned many horribly with more expansive precip shields than reality. A lot of the beginning stuff should be virga as the Twister Data (I really don't trust these maps) show if it comes to fruition. With that said; it will serve to moisten up the unusually cold atmosphere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I have a consistent animation of the current 500mb vort maps going on. If the whole piece fully phases, it'd be a miracle of epic proporations for some. The big part is heading due SE down towards Mexico with a couple smaller pieces of energy heading to the trough. I really can't see a full phase here. Yeah, I know what you're saying, but it sure looks like it on WV. Like I said, it may not fully phase, but it sure looks like the bulk of it could when studying the satellite loops. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP has burned many horribly with more expansive precip shields than reality. A lot of the beginning stuff should be virga as the Twister Data (I really don't trust these maps) show if it comes to fruition. With that said; it will serve to moisten up the unusually cold atmosphere! As SnowGoose said it's usually too far NW. However for me it's the trends. Is it getting wetter? Where is the precip setting up? How is that energy doing from the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I have a consistent animation of the current 500mb vort maps going on. If the whole piece fully phases, it'd be a miracle of epic proporations for some. The big part is heading due SE down towards Mexico with a couple smaller pieces of energy heading to the trough. I really can't see a full phase here. Yeah, I know what you're saying, but it sure looks like it on WV. Like I said, it may not fully phase, but it sure looks like the bulk of it could when studying the satellite loops. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html Quite possibly could; but the last few frames look to drop it more Southerly in my opinion. EDIT: I see the front piece you're looking at on that Water Vapor map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Rome, GA, was projected to already be down to 31 at 7 PM by the 18Z gfs and 28 by the 12Z NAM, but they were down to only 39 then. Any concern? Is this just another delay? I see Chat. was down to 31, but they were supposed to be down to 25 by 7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I've found over the years the rap is most useful for mesoscale trends. in scenarios like we have right now you can almost use it to forecast what the nam/gfs will show. also if you know how to read wv loops, you can match it up and see how it's picking up shortwaves, trends etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 A bad RAP? Get it ??!?!? HAHAHAA Ok ok... sorry. It does sometimes catch the early trends before the operationals run so you can easily get sucked into RAP watching. Ok, so I am bad at comedy. I am certainly sucked into watching it. In a situation like this where the model spread still exists, it could very well be right but it just looks almost a little too good for me. I hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Rome, GA, was projected to already be down to 31 at 7 PM by the 18Z gfs and 28 by the 12Z NAM, but they were down to only 39 then. Any concern? Is this just another delay? I see Chat. was down to 31, but they were supposed to be down to 25 by 7 PM. Pretty sure the arctic front was supposed to be blowing into here not too far from now. Looks a great deal slower if I am remember timing correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I've found over the years the rap is most useful for mesoscale trends. in scenarios like we have right now you can almost use it to forecast what the nam/gfs will show. also if you know how to read wv loops, you can match it up and see how it's picking up shortwaves, trends etc. Thanks for the explanation. Makes the next run of the NAM and GFS a little more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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