beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, you were gracious in your wording there -- as I go look back at the 0z GFS and compare it to the 18z it is apparent that the only thing that eastward jog accomplished was earning back the westward movement that was lost today. Oh well! Yeah.. very similar to the 0z run. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I absolutely love reading him in the heart of the storm. Exhausts himself giving us his all. That is one cool dude, Robert is. Miss him being here throughout. T Agreed Tony. He's been going non-stop. He leaves nothing on the table either, you get it all. Sorry Michelle for my comment... asking for forgiveness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 21Z RAP at 18 hours Yes, I'm posting it because it shows what I want. But this should also add some value to the conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WxSouth The snow should begin in the Tennessee Valley by early morning and spread quickly through central VA, NC...then it expands quickly, filling in more to the South. Eventually, southern GA, northern FL and coastal SC are in for an ice storm. The Piedmont of GA, SC, NC, VA are in for a nice snow maker, and the further east you are, the heavier the snow will be.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 becoming very concerned here in charleston, anywhere near .5" of ice will be catastrophic. trees down here would not stand a chance and pretty much everywhere is connected by a bridge. any power outages would be long lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 18z tries to phase the two systems... But lets remember what the 18z did lastnight before we try and draw conclusions. The ULL aint sitting there like models projected. its moving due east now! The baja ULL is an important player in the evolution of this event, but I think the more important observation is what is already happening. A stronger than modeled piece of vorticity is currently merging with the polar shortwave over NM/TX. Note that this feature previously didn't exist in the medium range up until 18 hours before today's 12z analysis and is likely playing at least some role in why we have seen a substantial shift northward with the precipitation over the last 36-48 hours as the merger of that vorticity with the large scale shortwave has allowed a deeper 500 hPa trough thats extended further west. Note the vortmax in AZ that is now merging with the larger scale trough... this matters! http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/500vort/namer/500vort_namer_dprog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Does the RAP take into account virga in the amount of precip it puts down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 The baja ULL is an important player in the evolution of this event, but I think the more important observation is what is already happening. A stronger than modeled piece of vorticity is currently merging with the polar shortwave over NM/TX. Note that this feature previously didn't exist in the medium range up until 18 hours before today's 12z analysis and is likely playing at least some role in why we have seen a substantial shift northward with the precipitation over the last 36-48 hours as the merger of that vorticity with the large scale shortwave has allowed a deeper 500 hPa trough thats extended further west. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/500vort/namer/500vort_namer_dprog.html Always a pleasure when you come around Phil! Thanks for stopping by and giving your insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm absolutely amazed at how bananas this is. Just even seeing this: is just ridiculous to me. Growing up down in Pensacola...about every winter in elementary and middle school we would have a day where it very lightly snowed. The worst was a sleet storm we had one time... but nothing ever accumulated. The idea that they can get some accumulation out of this honestly makes me jealous...haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 21Z RAP at 18 hours Yes, I'm posting it because it shows what I want. But this should also add some value to the conversation. USA_REFC_clm_018.gif USA_REFD_1000m_018.gif YOu've got to learn to trust me, lol. I told you you'd see snow, and I still think you will! I might even see some snow and sleet too You can really feel the cold in the air now, and this morning I could smell the rain when the front went over. Good times ahead, and I'm liking next midweek too. I love this winter!! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The baja ULL is an important player in the evolution of this event, but I think the more important observation is what is already happening. A stronger than modeled piece of vorticity is currently merging with the polar shortwave over NM/TX. Note that this feature previously didn't exist in the medium range up until 18 hours before today's 12z analysis and is likely playing at least some role in why we have seen a substantial shift northward with the precipitation over the last 36-48 hours as the merger of that vorticity with the large scale shortwave has allowed a deeper 500 hPa trough thats extended further west. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/500vort/namer/500vort_namer_dprog.html Long time no see Phil!....we still miss you here in Asheville. Thanks for your thoughts & hope you can post a few more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This has the feel of an old timey snow. Very happy for you folks down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Does the RAP take into account virga in the amount of precip it puts down? No, since virga by definition is precipitation that evaporates before hitting the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The baja ULL is an important player in the evolution of this event, but I think the more important observation is what is already happening. A stronger than modeled piece of vorticity is currently merging with the polar shortwave over NM/TX. Note that this feature previously didn't exist in the medium range up until 18 hours before today's 12z analysis and is likely playing at least some role in why we have seen a substantial shift northward with the precipitation over the last 36-48 hours as the merger of that vorticity with the large scale shortwave has allowed a deeper 500 hPa trough thats extended further west. Note the vortmax in AZ that is now merging with the larger scale trough... this matters! http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/500vort/namer/500vort_namer_dprog.html Phil!! Welcome back! Thought about you today when I was looking through my bookmarks and found your Albany site. I knew you'd be back to talk about your stomping grounds! Thanks for the insight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No, since virga by definition is precipitation that evaporates before hitting the ground. Okay I was afraid of that. And thanks alot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Another great map from FFC : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Advice, esp. if you have a family: Book a hotel room now! Pick a hotel most likely to keep power (maybe right in downtown, or near a hospital or mall). After two Shelby ice storms, I did this and it was a lifesaver. becoming very concerned here in charleston, anywhere near .5" of ice will be catastrophic. trees down here would not stand a chance and pretty much everywhere is connected by a bridge. any power outages would be long lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The baja ULL is an important player in the evolution of this event, but I think the more important observation is what is already happening. A stronger than modeled piece of vorticity is currently merging with the polar shortwave over NM/TX. Note that this feature previously didn't exist in the medium range up until 18 hours before today's 12z analysis and is likely playing at least some role in why we have seen a substantial shift northward with the precipitation over the last 36-48 hours as the merger of that vorticity with the large scale shortwave has allowed a deeper 500 hPa trough thats extended further west. Note the vortmax in AZ that is now merging with the larger scale trough... this matters! http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/500vort/namer/500vort_namer_dprog.html Thanks. i never knew about the other feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray Mills Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just wanted to say thanks for all the people that have put so much time and insight into this storm. I am still learning and don't half understand 80% of what you folks are saying but it sure is fun to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 YOu've got to learn to trust me, lol. I told you you'd see snow, and I still think you will! I might even see some snow and sleet too You can really feel the cold in the air now, and this morning I could smell the rain when the front went over. Good times ahead, and I'm liking next midweek too. I love this winter!! Tony your area looks good tony. I think 2-4" for you. I'm actually thinking of driving to griffin and getting a hotel room. Looks like we won't get a flake of snow in Carrollton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Another great map from FFC : image_full6.gif Not if you live in Atlanta, thought things were looking better for us??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That FFC map isn't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Another great map from FFC : image_full6.gif maybe I'm color blind but it looks to me an area of 2-3", then it immediately goes to a trace to 1/2" north of that and nobody is in the color in between ( the 0.5-1 inch area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well the baja low is still going east. But its hard to tell via WV but maybe a turn from the E to NE now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 The baja ULL is an important player in the evolution of this event, but I think the more important observation is what is already happening. A stronger than modeled piece of vorticity is currently merging with the polar shortwave over NM/TX. Note that this feature previously didn't exist in the medium range up until 18 hours before today's 12z analysis and is likely playing at least some role in why we have seen a substantial shift northward with the precipitation over the last 36-48 hours as the merger of that vorticity with the large scale shortwave has allowed a deeper 500 hPa trough thats extended further west. Note the vortmax in AZ that is now merging with the larger scale trough... this matters! http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/500vort/namer/500vort_namer_dprog.html Phil, I'm taking it this is that tail showing up in the west on the NAM. When that get's absorbed I know you say that is allowing a deeper trough. Is that because it's juicing up that northern energy sitting over TX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That FFC map isn't right. Well it was created before the GFS I think. I wasn't being sarcastic. I really do think it is a good call for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Phil!! Welcome back! Thought about you today when I was looking through my bookmarks and found your Albany site. I knew you'd be back to talk about your stomping grounds! Thanks for the insight! Haha and thank you... yea I couldn't stay away especially since this is looking like a high impact event for many places that aren't accustomed to seeing a lot of snow/sleet/ice. I think what is going to surprise a lot of people are the temperatures. There is a significant difference between a snow/sleet/ice event with the thermometer hovering around 32 degrees vs. in the mid-upper 20's. Roads in NC/SC are going to become impassable at some point during this event, possibly even down to the coastline where heavy sleet accumulations will freeze up the roads. I also don't think people are picking up on the fact that this will be a multi-day event for those near the coastline. The ECMWF is showing mid-level clouds hanging around for most of the day Wednesday event after the precipitation is gone, keeping most locations near the coastline below freezing as the arctic air remains entrenched. Since there aren't any plows to get rid of the snow/ice, many places will be completely shut down for a 24-48 hour period once things start in earnest on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 From Mike Dross at Wright Weather Look carefully. Historic ! Won't see a map like this more than a few times in your life. Winter Storm Warnings in white. #Snow #Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well it was created before the GFS I think. I wasn't being sarcastic. I really do think it is a good call for right now. they might as well take Cobb, Fulton, Douglas, Carroll, Paulding, etc out of the watch area and put up an advisory. I'm probably one of the very few locations south of I-20 that won't get warning level snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 FFC map looks too light for ATL.I would say 1-2" up to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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