1/28 - 1/30 Storm Thread II

[Pilotwx]

RGEM has a similar look but it's after hour 18, you can probably shift that southeast too as the rap has a very bad NW bias past hour 12 or so

Look back in Texas the fetch of moisture is long.

Which leads me to believe as has been all year it's going to be a lot wetter .

[SN_Lover]

Ah ok. Just wanted to be sure. 

I hope we can catch some snow outta this. sick of looking at frozen ground. lol  

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Short-term discussion NWS ILM; about 2 hours old:
 

AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A MAJOR WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL
EXPECTED. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS ON SUN AND
THOSE OF TODAY IS THAT THE DEEP AND PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE THAT WAS
VERY EVIDENT EARLIER IS NOW THAT MUCH MORE EXAGGERATED...UP TO 5 TO
7 DEG C ALONG THE COAST. INLAND...ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...THE WARM NOSE IS NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT...BUT STILL UP
TO 1 TO 3 DEG C AROUND 5 KFT. THUS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ABOVE
FREEZING IN A 2 TO 4 KFT LAYER AND THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER HAS
LOWERED CLOSER TO THE GROUND. WHILE IT IS TRUE THAT DYNAMIC COOLING
COULD COOL THE COLUMN...IT IS UNLIKELY IT WILL BE ABLE TO BRING THE
COLUMN BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AT AND
NEARER TO THE COAST. THE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS IS THAT WE ARE NOW
EXPECTING MORE FREEZING RAIN. ALONG AND EAST OF A FLO TO CPC TO
BURGAW LINE...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OR MORE ALONG THE COAST. THE
WORST OF THE ICE IS EXPECTED IN A CORRIDOR FROM SURF CITY AND ILM TO
THE GRAND STRAND AND DOWN THROUGH GEORGETOWN AND BACK ACROSS ANDREWS
AND CONWAY AND MOST OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY. WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS MAINLY SNOW...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY REACH 4 TO 6 INCHES AND
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AT THIS TIME IS
EXPECTED FROM WATHA AND EYF TO DILLON AND DARLINGTON AND POINTS NW.
EVEN WHERE MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
PERIOD OF TIME WHERE SLEET IS ABLE TO MIX IN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY TUE. ALSO...EVEN WHERE FREEZING RAIN DOMINATES EARLY IN THE
EVENT...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW AND SO COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT
ENDS...WITH POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES FOR SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS.

THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE EXPECTED LATER TUE
AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS
EARLY AS EARLY TUE MORNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS...EXPANDING N AND W TO INCLUDE MORE INLAND AREAS
THROUGH MIDDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST LATER TUE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN FROM INLAND
TO THE COAST WED MORNING. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS TUE EVE...THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...LASTLY AT THE COAST
LATE IN THE EVE. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

 

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY TUE MORNING WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS THE ARCTIC
AIR MOVES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS...IT WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
BAROCLINICITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT...HELPING TO FUEL DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ADEQUATE PRE-CONDITIONING OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND
SO THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE THEY ARE DOWN AROUND OUR LATITUDE. THE ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE SHALLOW AND SLOW TO DEEPEN...WITH WINDS FROM THE
NORTH FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3 KFT. ABOVE THAT LEVEL...STRONG
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WSW OR SW. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG
OVERRUNNING SITUATION. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SHARPLY TUE AFTERNOON AND TO MAXIMIZE TUE EVE AND NIGHT.

AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...
NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WHERE SNOW REMAINS THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THESE WINDS WILL SERVE TO BLOW AND DRIFT THE
SNOW WHILE BRINGING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES. TEMPS TUE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...AND WILL ACTUALLY
HAVE A TENDENCY TO DROP SLOWLY THROUGH THE 20S AS THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES HEAVIER AS LOW WET BULB TEMPS ATTEMPT TO RECOVER. TEMPS WILL
BE WELL DOWN IN THE 20S TUE NIGHT AND GIVEN THE SNOW AND ICE ON THE
GROUND ON WED...WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON
WED AS WELL. TEMPS MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL THU
AFTERNOON...SO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR PERHAPS SEVERAL DAYS.

[GaWx]

we all are.  I would take a significant sleet storm over ZR anyday, and I'm just hopeful that warm nose cools more significantly than that's being shown, NAM/GFS taking steps in that direction, but would it be enough to save many from a severe ice storm beforehand.   precip rates could be quite sufficient to do so.

 

From my study of  numerous old wx maps, 850's usually have to drop to ~+2.5 to start having the best shot at IP fwiw.

[BIG FROSTY]

Look back in Texas the fetch of moisture is long.

Which leads me to believe as has been all year it's going to be a lot wetter .

I've seen 3 or 4 snow maps so far, and everyone has us in a dusting-inch. just seen Robert's dusting-inch lol

[HKY_WX]

Man pgv get's hit good this run.

[packbacker]

18z NAVGEM looks good, ticked NW from 12z run, precip all the way back to foothills.

[Pilotwx]

I've seen 3 or 4 snow maps so far, and everyone has us in a dusting-inch. just seen Robert's dusting-inch lol

If that don't forget virga !!

Still have some time .

[superjames1992]

18z NAVGEM looks good, ticked NW from 12z run, precip all the way back to foothills.

 

I'll don't have the precip maps, but the maps on Tropical Tidbits look pretty expansive.  Interesting as it should theoretically be the most suppressed of all the models, yes?

[Wow]

Wow, the Baja low is really trending east quickly on the RAP. Moving more than 200 miles in 5 cycles.  More in line with the rest of the models now.

[SN_Lover]

The ULL aint sitting there like models projected. its moving due east now! 

[HKY_WX]

man the ruc is so close to a phase at hour 18. there will def' be some interaction based on this run. this is going to be fun to watch tonight/morning.

[burgertime]

Wow, the Baja low is really trending east quickly on the RAP. Moving more than 200 miles in 5 cycles.  More in line with the rest of the models now.

 

Was just about to post about that. It's really starting to move now. Almost looks like it's getting sucked east. 

[deltadog03]

Was just about to post about that. It's really starting to move now. Almost looks like it's getting sucked east. 

It really should, there really isn't anything to make it stronger and sit there.

[BullCityWx]

MAV MOS now gives Gastonia/Charlotte/Rock Hill a 4 on the snow guidance. That basically means that MOS is predicting 4-6 inches of snow at those points.

[burgertime]

This is looking better and better. Look out on the RAP that vort in the south is moving big time. 

[beanskip]

Yeah, that was the headline of the 18z GFS run -- moved the southern stream energy 100-200 miles east.

man the ruc is so close to a phase at hour 18. there will def' be some interaction based on this run. this is going to be fun to watch tonight/morning.

[Wow]

MAV MOS now gives Gastonia/Charlotte/Rock Hill a 4 on the snow guidance. That basically means that MOS is predicting 4-6 inches of snow at those points.

 

 

Keep the trend up for just a little bit longer and that may be the start of it!

[rduwx]

finally off work. the gfs looks nice for rdu.

 

Finally home myself, even though I didn't get much work done today...LOL!

 

Most of the models have been showing close to .5 qpf for our area.  I'm hoping that holds in the future or even better.  Maybe that luck of yours is rubbing off on RDU!

[Wow]

Yeah, that was the headline of the 18z GFS run -- moved the southern stream energy 100-200 miles east.

 

Yeah.. very similar to the 0z run.  Fingers crossed.

[HKY_WX]

Finally home myself, even though I didn't get much work done today...LOL!

 

Most of the models have been showing close to .5 qpf for our area.  I'm hoping that holds in the future or even better.  Maybe that luck of yours is rubbing off on RDU!

i was talking to allan last night and we were talking how due raleigh is for a significant snowfall. been a long time.

[superjames1992]

MAV MOS now gives Gastonia/Charlotte/Rock Hill a 4 on the snow guidance. That basically means that MOS is predicting 4-6 inches of snow at those points.

 

Hmm.

 

 

I've never used MAV MOS snowfall amounts before.  Is this an actual forecast generated using statistical techniques or is this some best-case scenario?  4-6" is bullish as hell.  I've used MAV MOS for temperatures and rainfall, but I guess I'm just finding 4-6" hard to believe, haha.

[DaculaWeather]

Robert just posted this on FB

 

Thanks for all the new likes on this page. I'm so overwhelmed I can't answer all the PM's and emails though, but it's very much appreciated. This system is difficult, but it's never easy in the Southeast. I used a heavy dose of pattern recognition a few days ago when I saw the chance coming and the models are still playing catch-up. I have all my specific maps at the premium side, but I do put out custom maps here as well, and am working on one as we speak. The models aren't catching on to two things:
1) the amount of isentropic lifting from Texas, Red River and Tennessee Valley tonight and early Tuesday. 
2) Not pulling enough energy off the top of the Baja/Mexico upper low, hence every run of RAP each hour increases the moisture output in that initial band, much as I ancticipated.
3) The models don't know what to do on Wednesday when the remnants of the Gulf upper low try to get handed off to a "shear axis" near the Tennessee Valley. Instead they sweep everything out to sea quickly, but that might be a big error in eastern Georgia, eastern Carolinas and eastern Virginia.
4) Overall moisture could still fill in much more than shown, but that's almost unknowable now, until the RAP model or the radar literally tells something different. Be on guard in the morning about anywhere from eastern TN, Alabama and all points east through Carolinas, Virginia, Georgia and eventually northern Florida. Yes, Florida Ice and Snow. Imagine!
A dangerous ice storm for the SC low country and middle to south Georgia looks likely. Snow amounts are the trickiest to forecast. But much of NC, and VA, especially the further you go, are in fore sizeable snow. Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond and Norfolk should measure decent snow with this event...Possibly over 6" in Raleigh and Norfolk.

[BullCityWx]

Keep the trend up for just a little bit longer and that may be the start of it!

Fingers crossed

[burgertime]

Yeah.. very similar to the 0z run.  Fingers crossed.

 

The jump NORTH EAST with that vort on the RAP on 21z compared to 20z almost gave me goosebumps. 

[jtomlinwx]

Best guess as of now.

[SnowNiner]

MAV MOS now gives Gastonia/Charlotte/Rock Hill a 4 on the snow guidance. That basically means that MOS is predicting 4-6 inches of snow at those points.

 

I'd take that and run with it. Hard. 

 

GSP actually is uping the amounts along the 85 corridor to 2-4; but suggest the greater amounts are south and east of 85....which we already know. 

[dsaur]

Robert just posted this on FB

 

Thanks for all the new likes on this page. I'm so overwhelmed I can't answer all the PM's and emails though, but it's very much appreciated. This system is difficult, but it's never easy in the Southeast. I used a heavy dose of pattern recognition a few days ago when I saw the chance coming and the models are still playing catch-up. I have all my specific maps at the premium side, but I do put out custom maps here as well, and am working on one as we speak. The models aren't catching on to two things:

1) the amount of isentropic lifting from Texas, Red River and Tennessee Valley tonight and early Tuesday. 

2) Not pulling enough energy off the top of the Baja/Mexico upper low, hence every run of RAP each hour increases the moisture output in that initial band, much as I ancticipated.

3) The models don't know what to do on Wednesday when the remnants of the Gulf upper low try to get handed off to a "shear axis" near the Tennessee Valley. Instead they sweep everything out to sea quickly, but that might be a big error in eastern Georgia, eastern Carolinas and eastern Virginia.

4) Overall moisture could still fill in much more than shown, but that's almost unknowable now, until the RAP model or the radar literally tells something different. Be on guard in the morning about anywhere from eastern TN, Alabama and all points east through Carolinas, Virginia, Georgia and eventually northern Florida. Yes, Florida Ice and Snow. Imagine!

A dangerous ice storm for the SC low country and middle to south Georgia looks likely. Snow amounts are the trickiest to forecast. But much of NC, and VA, especially the further you go, are in fore sizeable snow. Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond and Norfolk should measure decent snow with this event...Possibly over 6" in Raleigh and Norfolk.

I absolutely love reading him in the heart of the storm.  Exhausts himself giving us his all.  That is one cool dude, Robert is.  Miss him being here throughout.  T

[downeastnc]

Man pgv get's hit good this run.

Looking good for us then maybe subzero RDU into eastern NC

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Robert(WxSouth) about Atlanta

 

 

ATL hard to say. That initial band will be north of them, then it fills in midday or evening. Roughly 1" to 3", maybe a lot more if there's more moisutre than any model shows. I'd think eastern sections stand the best shot at more though. Really hard to say on snow amounts unless you're under definite source of lift that can be identified easily. Right now, only eastern VA and NC are easy to see that, big snow there.