donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Thanks Don...Appreciate you stopping by w/ your thoughts! Good luck on the storm. I hope all of you do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxcwman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 So I assume from reading that it's still an iffy situation, but in general the areas near lake Lanier should just see a couple snow showers from overrunning? I understand a lot can change but I don't understand why this ssystem is so surpressed? I've seen numerous gulf lows give a phlethra of precip inland. What's different this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It does not get any sharper than this. Hell this reminds me of lake effect snow bands where there could be 2 feet in one spot and 5 miles down the road there is hardly anything at all. I'm not sure if I have ever seen such a sharp cutoff down here where precip is not associated with a frontal passage. This is why I said earlier it's going to be nerve racking to see where this actually ends up being. It's far too close for comfort so hopefully it trends northwest by 25 miles. I mean 25 miles isn't too much to ask for is it?: After you had your own personal snow band over you a few years ago that just snowed and snowed on you while the rest of us watched, I don't worry about you any more, lol. It's me you need to be worrying about. I live through 73, and saw how sharp the fall off was, and felt the crushing disappointment, lol. I think we might ought to offer counselling to those getting too worked up, because this can turn some minds to mush before it's over Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It does not get any sharper than this. Hell this reminds me of lake effect snow bands where there could be 2 feet in one spot and 5 miles down the road there is hardly anything at all. I'm not sure if I have ever seen such a sharp cutoff down here where precip is not associated with a frontal passage. This is why I said earlier it's going to be nerve racking to see where this actually ends up being. It's far too close for comfort so hopefully it trends northwest by 25 miles. I mean 25 miles isn't too much to ask for is it?: This is the times that I really hate, lol! I would love to post an accumulation map, but I just can't at the moment. There is just so much uncertainty with this system. I am watching the shortwave over New Mexico, the baja low, the diving northern stream, and just wondering how all these will interact. Models seem to have converged on the idea that the baja low will not a factor, so even without this, what happens east of the mountains? I really don't know. I just told dad that I would not be shocked if we get nothing or four inches in the foothills of NC. Neither would shock me at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You have two regions of "A" on there. Can you be more specific on that western "A" over the mountains? Sorry that should be a separate region. 1-2 for there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vorticity Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 FWIW, here's my post in the general forum concerning the storm: Based on the latest ensemble and operational model guidance (prior to the 1/27 12z run of the ECMWF), one could probably make a case that the February 6-7, 1980 and March 1-2, 1980 snowstorms had reasonably similar 500 mb patterns. Below are charts showing the composite 500 mb anomalies for those two storms and qpf/snowfall for select cities: Taking into consideration those 500 mb cases and the latest guidance, snowfall risks can probably be listed as follows: Trace or Less: Boston New York City Philadelphia Washington, DC 1" or Less: Atlantic City Birmingham Savannah 1"-3": Atlanta Charleston 2"-4" Charlotte Columbia Richmond Wilmington, NC 3"-6": Raleigh 6" or More: Norfolk Actual useful info, thanks so much for sharing. Nice insight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 So I assume from reading that it's still an iffy situation, but in general the areas near lake Lanier should just see a couple snow showers from overrunning? I understand a lot can change but I don't understand why this ssystem is so surpressed? I've seen numerous gulf lows give a phlethra of precip inland. What's different this time? Not to be a jerk, but there are countless posts in this thread. If you go back and read you will have your answer ten fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro out to hr 36 and qpf appears to be further west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z euro has finally joined the nam/gfs with heavier totals much further inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro definitely further west with the 0.1" of precip, past CLT and GSO, not sure if any heavy stuff is coming west of 95 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Got this from the other board. It's from Birmingham NWS, but I thought it applied to the situation as a whole, too. AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT TUESDAY MORNING...WE`LL HAVE TO CLOSELYWATCH THE RADAR RETURNS THAT WILL BE SETTING UP TO OUR WEST ANDSOUTHWEST AS THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP BEGINS TO DEVELOP. MODELGUIDANCE USUALLY HAS A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING OVERRUNNING PRECIPSITUATIONS...AND WE`VE ALREADY WITNESSED THAT QUITE A FEW TIMES OVERTHE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. WITH THIS IN MIND AND A WETTER LOOK TO THESUITE OF GUIDANCE...I`VE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTHWARDTO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-59 CORRIDOR TUESDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A GOOD BUFFER ZONEBETWEEN THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND THE POSSIBILITY OFPRECIP MOVING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WOW, Euro FTW, get's heavy heavy precip almost to RDU, but looks to get a lot more of NC involved too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 HR36 euro much better/further inland and heavier with qpf vs 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro looks wetter overall to my eyes but on my phone Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 More Euro PBP please! Southern vort responsible for added QPF or just stronger northern dive? How does QPF look across Gulf coast.?Temp trends? More more more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Big jump on Euro! Looks like 0.5" RDU, 0.25"+ to GSO/CLT, need better maps to her sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro has close to .5 for the RDU. That appears to be the number for this area. Hopefully it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 More Euro PBP please! Southern vort responsible for added QPF or just stronger northern dive? How does QPF look across Gulf coast.?Temp trends? More more more! Not nearly as positively tilted and digs a good bit further SW through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z euro now has 0.10 over much of northern ga, with half inch amounts from macon to columbia to eastern nc. 0.75 to 1 inch just south of there and 1 inch plus on the coast of upper sc and nc. In some cases it's 30 or 40 miles or so further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 EURO DEF wetter for more, including inland. There is a bit of a tilt from NE to SW (better this run, so qpf stays around a bit longer) LOVE this trend..keep it up! 12z GFS *IMO* was a bogus run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 More Euro PBP please! Southern vort responsible for added QPF or just stronger northern dive? How does QPF look across Gulf coast.?Temp trends? More more more! My 5h maps for the euro are terrible so I can't say if the southern vort was responsible. I can say the trough appeared to be a little sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That describes ALMOST all of the region. 12z euro now has 0.10 over much of northern ga, with half inch amounts from macon to columbia to eastern nc. 0.75 to 1 inch just south of there and 1 inch plus on the coast of upper sc and nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That's the wettest run of the Euro for MBY since last week. When the king speaks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It gets 0.5" to RDU, on the east side of Wake County almost 0.7" and RDU is only about miles from 0.8" of precip, huge jump. But it's also only 20 miles from 0.3" of precip, this is going to be nerve racking tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 between 36 and 42 hours it puts the hammer down from FAY to PGV, likely a foot. Edit: 10.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z euro now has 0.10 over much of northern ga, with half inch amounts from macon to columbia to eastern nc. 0.75 to 1 inch just south of there and 1 inch plus on the coast of upper sc and nc. In some cases it's 30 or 40 miles or so further north. That's it. Looks like I'm in the game for 1-2" . I'll be happy with that considering at 12z yesterday I was praying for just a few flurries. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That's the wettest run of the Euro for MBY since last week. When the king speaks.. My confidence of seeing 2 to 4 inches has increased dramatically with this run. It is a big relief to FINALLY see this shift. Hopefully it makes one more like that because if it does me and you would probably end up with 0.50 or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It gets 0.5" to RDU, on the east side of Wake County almost 0.7" and RDU is only about miles from 0.8" of precip, huge jump. But it's also only 20 miles from 0.3" of precip, this is going to be nerve racking tomorrow. How is it looking for KRWI and KPGV. I do not have acess to Euro maps at work. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Seriously, I go back to the Wright Weather days on these boards -- I remember the RaleighWx Gempack PBPs. I moved to a place with no winter weather to speak of, but have a shot. Can somebody give me a Gulf Coast QPF report from the Euro. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 My 5h maps for the euro are terrible so I can't say if the southern vort was responsible. I can say the trough appeared to be a little sharper. That second piece of the southern vort does interact with it, can't tell if it dies out or completely phases in but at hour 42 the main 5h vort looks really good but than kind of dies out at 48 as the system scoots east. If that trended just a hair better, more neutral it would be all the difference in the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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