BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GSP increasing totals S&E of 85:AS OF 1125 AM EST MONDAY...BASED ON TIGHTER CLUSTERING OF SNOWAMOUNTS OF THE 0900 UTC SREF AND INCREASING GEFS MEAN SNOWFALLAMOUNTS...SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONGAND SOUTH OF I-85. THE FATHER SOUTH ONE GOES...THE HIGHER THETOTALS. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE OF AN INCREASE FOR PARTS OF THE SRNNC PIEDMONT AND THE SRN UPSTATE TO REACH WINTER STORM WARNINGCRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE A LITTLE SHORT. I/DLIKE TO SEE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEFORE I PUSH UP TOTALSANY MORE...AS IT/S RATHER WEAK OVER OUR AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOONAND EVENING. ALSO...THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE EXTREMELYDRY IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND IT MAKE TAKE A WHILE FOR SNOW TO STARTREACHING THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I will put my map out shortly. Have it ready, just wanted to see GFS BUFKIT and look at GGEM a little closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Raleigh NWS saying the snow should start around 1:00 tomorrow in the Triangle. Heaviest snow between 5 and 11 and ending Wed morning at 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have been worried about the bold statement below. We have been very dry around here. GSP increasing totals S&E of 85:AS OF 1125 AM EST MONDAY...BASED ON TIGHTER CLUSTERING OF SNOWAMOUNTS OF THE 0900 UTC SREF AND INCREASING GEFS MEAN SNOWFALLAMOUNTS...SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONGAND SOUTH OF I-85. THE FATHER SOUTH ONE GOES...THE HIGHER THETOTALS. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE OF AN INCREASE FOR PARTS OF THE SRNNC PIEDMONT AND THE SRN UPSTATE TO REACH WINTER STORM WARNINGCRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE A LITTLE SHORT. I/DLIKE TO SEE STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BEFORE I PUSH UP TOTALSANY MORE...AS IT/S RATHER WEAK OVER OUR AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOONAND EVENING. ALSO...THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE EXTREMELYDRY IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND IT MAKE TAKE A WHILE FOR SNOW TO STARTREACHING THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I will put my map out shortly. Have it ready, just wanted to see GFS BUFKIT and look at GGEM a little closer. GGem might be an outlier but could this be the first step we are seeing the storm going negative tilt, along with the jet increasing from the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I was thinking that every model has come at least a little west or northwest on their most recent run except for the gfs which lined up with the 6z run. Did any other model not tick nw? Pretty much so...I was fully planning on riding the GFS/RGEM as they had been the best models all winter but the GFS starting 18Z yesterday has been very inconsistent and the RGEM of course took a swing at 12Z north of where it had been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 New map from GSP. Baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have been worried about the bold statement below. We have been very dry around here. Hah no kidding! The Rel humidity even INSIDE my house was 20% the past couple of days even with a humidifier. That'll be interesting to see because I agree that's a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Which goes in line with the latest models this morning. As the players enter the arena today, we will understand the end game will be. Well, at least hope we will. New map from GSP. Baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here is the GFS Ensemble 24 Hour QPF... Nothing really great to talk about with it, but it will be interesting to see if some of the individual members have isolated higher areas of snow west from Charlotte to GSP to Hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Map below is the Canadian RGEM at 2PM tomorrow. For the I-85 crowd, I think this band developing tomorrow morning to early aftn from Birmingham to Charlotte is foreal and something to watch for (I believe lookout and others have mentioned it). A lot of times these bands associated with overrunning and frontogenesis can overperform. Also, as a general rule, I think models have a tendency to underdo a bit the NW extent of the precip shield...just a few things to watch for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One trend I'm noticing is to cut back on the QPF on the Gulf Coast -- assume this is the lessening influence of the southern stream, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12Z SPC WRF at 18Z tomorrow and 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 An excellent point eater. Alway nice for it to be displayed on the RGEM model today. Hopefully a push in the right direction. Would this lends towards any lee side development ? Map below is the Canadian RGEM at 2PM tomorrow. For the I-85 crowd, I think this band developing tomorrow morning to early aftn from Birmingham to Charlotte is foreal and something to watch for (I believe lookout and others have mentioned it). A lot of times these bands associated with overrunning and frontogenesis can overperform. Also, as a general rule, I think models have a tendency to underdo a bit the NW extent of the precip shield...just a few things to watch for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One trend I'm noticing is to cut back on the QPF on the Gulf Coast -- assume this is the lessening influence of the southern stream, Explain? Which model/models? Thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Latest Briefing from NWS CHS: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/chs/Presentations/weekly/Briefings/LatestBriefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Finally got my maps to for the 12z cmc and not as good as I originally thought but not complaining. It looks to put between .25 and .5 qpf for RDU. It's hard to tell on my maps but might be closer to .5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Finally got my maps to for the 12z cmc and not as good as I originally thought but not complaining. It looks to put between .25 and .5 qpf for RDU. It's hard to tell on my maps but might be closer to .5. Between 0.4-0.5", the gradient is going to be very nerve racking tomorrow a 20-30 mile shift either way will be the difference between 1-2" and 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It is going to be such a sharp cut off in regards to precipitation. Some areas will get surprised with more snow, while others are disappointed with a major bust. The trend today has been to increase totals for some areas west; however, the foothills and piedmont of NC and western SC needs just a little more of a shift or more energy to help develop precipitation over the area. The moisture profile looks great over many of these locations; however, there is just not enough to get a good snow band to develop on the models. Can this change, absolutely. I still do not know how good the models are handling the southwest pieces of energy, which can help to increase totals in certain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Alright time to bite the bullet. My forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Between 0.4-0.5", the gradient is going to be very nerve racking tomorrow a 20-30 mile shift either way will be the difference between 1-2" and 5-6" Yes it is and I know our luck. Hopefully we'll be on the good side this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Alright time to bite the bullet. My forecast. You have two regions of "A" on there. Can you be more specific on that western "A" over the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Alright time to bite the bullet. My forecast. I think 3-6 here is a great call for RDU. I was thinking 2-4 but that falls in close to your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Alright time to bite the bullet. My forecast. A lot of ATL in the 3-6, I'll take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 A pretty amazing rollercoaster ride the past 24 hours, which is to be expected when it comes to winter weather in the Southeast. Had the 18z GFS solution held, I don't know if the AMWX server would have survived! It looks like a conservative, middle-of-the road solution appears to be where most of us west of the Carolinas are headed. The extreme totals that the NAM and GFS were hinting at appear to be off the table, nevertheless it should still be at least a moderate impact event in parts of central and south Georgia. Still hard to tell just how far north the precip will extend, but as Robert said, there are likely to be some surprises. IP accumulations will cut down on our overall totals, but if that helps us avoid the dreaded ZR, I'm all for it! A blend of the models should give us 1-2" of sleet topped off with 2" of snow if we can get the transition to take place early enough...otherwise, it might be a central Georgia sleetfest. Tony, wax up your sled and head down this way! Looking forward to updated thoughts from Delta and Candyman. Hey, El K, I think I'm getting my sleet up here too. I've not seen a snow over an inch, that wasn't a spring snow, since I've been here, that didn't have a sleet component. BuffKit still says all snow, but I'm not buying it. I need just enough to make the snow sledable, after the 4 wheelers, showing off to their girls friends, have mucked the roads all up Looks like you and Shack are still in the sweet spot, where I like to be. Close enough to the heater to get the sleet, but close enough to the cold to not get the zmonster. We'll see as it unfolds! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 FWIW, here's my post in the general forum concerning the storm: Based on the latest ensemble and operational model guidance (prior to the 1/27 12z run of the ECMWF), one could probably make a case that the February 6-7, 1980 and March 1-2, 1980 snowstorms had reasonably similar 500 mb patterns. Below are charts showing the composite 500 mb anomalies for those two storms and qpf/snowfall for select cities: Taking into consideration those 500 mb cases and the latest guidance, snowfall risks can probably be listed as follows: Trace or Less: Boston New York City Philadelphia Washington, DC 1" or Less: Atlantic City Birmingham Savannah 1"-3": Atlanta Charleston 2"-4" Charlotte Columbia Richmond Wilmington, NC 3"-6": Raleigh 6" or More: Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Alright time to bite the bullet. My forecast. You have two regions of "A" on there. Can you be more specific on that western "A" over the mountains? My guess is 1-2 for that second area under A. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It is going to be such a sharp cut off in regards to precipitation. Some areas will get surprised with more snow, while others are disappointed with a major bust. The trend today has been to increase totals for some areas west; however, the foothills and piedmont of NC and western SC needs just a little more of a shift or more energy to help develop precipitation over the area. The moisture profile looks great over many of these locations; however, there is just not enough to get a good snow band to develop on the models. Can this change, absolutely. I still do not know how good the models are handling the southwest pieces of energy, which can help to increase totals in certain areas. It does not get any sharper than this. Hell this reminds me of lake effect snow bands where there could be 2 feet in one spot and 5 miles down the road there is hardly anything at all. I'm not sure if I have ever seen such a sharp cutoff down here where precip is not associated with a frontal passage. This is why I said earlier it's going to be nerve racking to see where this actually ends up being. It's far too close for comfort so hopefully it trends northwest by 25 miles. I mean 25 miles isn't too much to ask for is it?: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 FWIW, here's my post in the general forum concerning the storm: Based on the latest ensemble and operational model guidance (prior to the 1/27 12z run of the ECMWF), one could probably make a case that the February 6-7, 1980 and March 1-2, 1980 snowstorms had reasonably similar 500 mb patterns. Below are charts showing the composite 500 mb anomalies for those two storms and qpf/snowfall for select cities: Taking into consideration those 500 mb cases and the latest guidance, snowfall risks can probably be listed as follows: Trace or Less: Boston New York City Philadelphia Washington, DC 1" or Less: Atlantic City Birmingham Savannah 1"-3": Atlanta Charleston 2"-4" Charlotte Columbia Richmond Wilmington, NC 3"-6": Raleigh 6" or More: Norfolk Thanks Don...Appreciate you stopping by w/ your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 An excellent point eater. Alway nice for it to be displayed on the RGEM model today. Hopefully a push in the right direction. Would this lends towards any lee side development ? It looks like there is a weak inverted trough running up through the Savannah River Valley. I have noticed in the past with arctic air spilling over the mtns that the frontogenesis gets enhanced in NW SC into the foothills and southern piedmont of NC - i.e. tighter packing of the isotherms in the low levels aiding precip development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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