WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM leaves ATL pretty dry. Looks like less than .1" so not what I really wanted to see. Yep, but it did take a jog closer vs 6z. Not that it means much. It is more amped which is good as well for us. Step toward what Robert had said I guess Maybe not as much as I thought, taking a closer look. Not much of a shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 sfc temps looks below freezing for the coast at 24hr, where is the rn/snow line this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 sfc temps looks below freezing for the coast at 24hr, where is the rn/snow line this run? Surface hits freezing at CHS at 7pm tomorrow per 12z NAM, on John's Island it's not til 1am after 0.8" QPF has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 If precip moves NW, won't be because of a phase -- that southern energy is even farther west. I'm not buying that energy juicing up and then just slowing down. Something tells me we still have a ways to go on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 sfc temps looks below freezing for the coast at 24hr, where is the rn/snow line this run? Macon, Columbia, Fay roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Bad trends all over if you want snow in AL, GA, or SC Last night yes. Today's 12z NAM run no. Although in reality it is just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm not buying that energy juicing up and then just slowing down. Something tells me we still have a ways to go on this. this thing is not in stone yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The northern branch digs a bit more on the 12z NAM than on the 6z, and thus the precip shield took a slight jog to the north. This had nothing to do with phasing with the southern piece through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow -- brutal run for Gulf Coast -- Biloxi/Mobile/Pensacola/Ft. Walton hammered with ugly ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think we are seeing the ridge out west get amped up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like the polar jet s/w digs a little more and check out the difference in the wind flow at least at 500mb more is more SSW over NC/SC at least then SW. this allow more of a moisture tap. Also 250mb jet streak is a bit stronger across OV/NE then it was so better upper diveregence. Taken literally a nice 4-5 incher across Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The northern branch digs a bit more on the 12z NAM than on the 6z, and thus the precip shield took a slight jog to the north. This had nothing to do with phasing with the southern piece through 48 hours. Yep more southern component aloft, better moisture tap. Also better upper divergence with the upper jet stream a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like the polar jet s/w digs a little more and check out the difference in the wind flow at least at 500mb more is more SSW over NC/SC at least then SW. this allow more of a moisture tap. Also 250mb jet streak is a bit stronger across OV/NE then it was so better upper diveregence. Taken literally a nice 4-5 incher across Raleigh. Is that just with 10:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Is that just with 10:1 ratios? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This system is going to be nerve racking. 12z comes in wetter than the 06z run but it's faster. However, it is more amplified than the 06z run with the trough so precip actually is pulled inland a little more the further east you go 12z run puts me very close to 0.50 liquid as it shifted those amounts northwest about 20 or 30 miles. But those 20 or 30 miles are going to be huge Because of how sharp the gradient will be. Go 30 more miles northwest and you only get a dusting. As gsp noted, you could see drastically different amounts just across one county along this line. It's way too close for my comfort, even though I'm in a much better position than areas northwest of 85. But if it ends up being further southeast by just a few miles, it's going to be maddening watching the radar as the precip shield scoots by barely to the south and east. It's already frustrating that people at the same latitude east of here will also have more precip. And unfortunately, that is going to be the case for quite a few people somewhere over north ga and the western carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Why do my posts keep getting deleted??? Probably bc you keep saying bad trends for GA,SC,NC with out giving any explanation. It might be bad trends for you but not every one else in those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Is that just with 10:1 ratios? yea but like someone stated yesterday, the highest ratios you will see will be 12-13:1, not likely to see 20:1 or anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Is that just with 10:1 ratios? yes but there was a good discussion on here yesterday regarding ratios: In short, higher ratios are not a given just because its super cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 09Z SREF plumes are out now. Here are the results for Hickory, NC, on the NW fringe. Last night's 21Z mean: 6 inches This morning's 03Z mean: 3 inches This morning's 09Z mean: 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The Vort in AZ. is moving now a good clip, lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This system is going to be nerve racking. 12z comes in wetter than the 06z run but it's faster. However, it is more amplified than the 06z run with the trough so precip actually is pulled inland a little more the further east you go 12z run puts me very close to 0.50 liquid as it shifted those amounts northwest about 20 or 30 miles. But those 20 or 30 miles are going to be huge Because of how sharp the gradient will be. Go 30 more miles northwest and you only get a dusting. As gsp noted, you could see drastically different amounts just across one county along this line. It's way too close for my comfort, even though I'm in a much better position than areas northwest of 85. But if it ends up being further southeast by just a few miles, it's going to be maddening watching the radar as the precip shield scoots by barely to the south and east. It's already frustrating that people at the same latitude east of here will also have more precip. And unfortunately, that is going to be the case for quite a few people somewhere over north ga and the western carolinas. Your SREF plumes look to have a majority of the members above 4". Still not a bad lick if it were to verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This system is going to be nerve racking. 12z comes in wetter than the 06z run but it's faster. However, it is more amplified than the 06z run with the trough so precip actually is pulled inland a little more the further east you go 12z run puts me very close to 0.50 liquid as it shifted those amounts northwest about 20 or 30 miles. But those 20 or 30 miles are going to be huge Because of how sharp the gradient will be. Go 30 more miles northwest and you only get a dusting. As gsp noted, you could see drastically different amounts just across one county along this line. It's way too close for my comfort, even though I'm in a much better position than areas northwest of 85. But if it ends up being further southeast by just a few miles, it's going to be maddening watching the radar as the precip shield scoots by barely to the south and east. It's already frustrating that people at the same latitude east of here will also have more precip. And unfortunately, that is going to be the case for quite a few people somewhere over north ga and the western carolinas. One would think the cut off could literally go right through atlanta....southeast burbs could get pummeled & northwest burbs only a dusting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yep more southern component aloft, better moisture tap. Also better upper divergence with the upper jet stream a little stronger. Good point about the upper jet as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Read more post less. Seriously. Read more post less. Seriously. His name sort of gives it away... Anyways burger have you noticed the 2nd wave the NAM has hinted at recently, around 72-84hr range? What does 12z run show for that? Could be a second thump for coastal areas if that we're to verify but didn't see any support from other models for it either. This storm is quite the enigma and I have a feeling it'll have a lot of surprises, good and bad, for many on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Never said a thing about NC....and the trends ARE bad. I didn't know I needed to write a synopsis on why. simply making comments like "trends are bad" is just a waste of people's time. It takes people longer to find meaninfull posts and information. Besides that fact, one can just read the posts of those who actually take the time to explain things to find out if the trend is good or bad. Making really obvious statements which adds nothing to the discussion simply aren't necessary and it annoys people. So the one liners need to be cut back folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hi-Res NAM has a nice band coming through CLT. Drops right around .25 of QPF. It's a good start. Gotta hope this keeps trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 09Z SREF plumes are out now. Here are the results for Hickory, NC, on the NW fringe. Last night's 21Z mean: 6 inches This morning's 03Z mean: 3 inches This morning's 09Z mean: 3 inches I'll give it to the SREF members. Really the first ensemble members to pick up more precip back NW and its been holding its ground good over the last 48 hours or so. Even though some of the extreme phase solutions have backed down to a more realistic mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow -- brutal run for Gulf Coast -- Biloxi/Mobile/Pensacola/Ft. Walton hammered with ugly ice storm. We do not have the infrastructure to deal with this kind of an ice event. Got to go back to Christmas Eve 1989 for an analog. I-10 was shut down from Mobile to Jacksonville due to ice in overpasses. Tallahassee had a nice dusting back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One would think the cut off could literally go right through atlanta....southeast burbs could get pummeled & northwest burbs only a dusting... At this point I might take the Dusting as I 'm fearing the I'll have a massive VIRGA storm overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 His name sort of gives it away... Anyways burger have you noticed the 2nd wave the NAM has hinted at recently, around 72-84hr range? What does 12z run show for that? Could be a second thump for coastal areas if that we're to verify but didn't see any support from other models for it either. This storm is quite the enigma and I have a feeling it'll have a lot of surprises, good and bad, for many on here. Def. looks good for Myrtle Beach with that second thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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