msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Any additional info on the RPM? Sent from my HTC One Here you go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hey Guys, I know overnight trends were not THE best. Not exactly what I wanted to wake up to either. However, I will just say this. Christmas Day Storm 2010, everyone, and I mean everyone (Main Stream Meteorologists, News Stations, NWS, etc) jumped off the "snow wagon" Christmas eve eve night, bc a sudden shift in most the model guidance. The models were handling a piece of energy way out around Hawaii incorrectly and forced the phasing to miss. It was not until 12-24 hours until the major models started pulling the system back west. What is crucial today, is not just watching the major models, but also paying attention to our energies of interest in the west half of the country and looking at short range models. Am I saying this storm is going to shift back west and throw acc. snow back to the Nrn Foothills of NC? No, and I don't believe it will. I am just pointing out the fact that this Eastward shift with regards to phasing systems has occurred before and is not necessarily the end of the road for snowlovers west of I-95. I am going to dig deeper into the overnight runs and probably post a first call map relatively soon. It's easy to get frustrated, but don't throw in the towel just yet. **EDIT: I completely understand the circumstances with the Christmas storm and this one are not the exact same, but both of them were phasing systems. That was my main point, just to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You can see the southern energy this morning on the water vapor loop. Right now, it looks very progressive. This can change; however, it looks to be moving eastward very quickly. If we do not see a change very soon in the models in regards to the phasing and this is northern stream dominated. Not ready to give up quite yet, but I was expecting better runs last night and this morning... If you look there are 2 SW 1 off the baja region the other Cali. Nev. boarder. If the models are picking up on the one in the Baja region in the latest runs well that will lead to a more east solution. But game on if the models did not catch the 1 near the Nev. Cali. boarder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You can see the southern energy this morning on the water vapor loop. Right now, it looks very progressive. This can change; however, it looks to be moving eastward very quickly. If we do not see a change very soon in the models in regards to the phasing and this is northern stream dominated. Not ready to give up quite yet, but I was expecting better runs last night and this morning... Its one thing about. Yesterday some of the models indicated this thing closing over MX or waffling with the idea of. I don't see it strong enough to be able to close off. Which in turn will probably bode well down the road. If it doesn't close off then it should remain progressive instead of slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here you go: SNOW.jpg Thanks! I'll take my half an inch and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No problem...it does have the .50 line running along the Johnston/Wake line, if that's any help. That's close to where I live, but I've learned to expect half of what the models show, when it comes to snow...maybe less. Anyway, it's shaping up to be a long day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WSW Wednesday...The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a WinterStorm Warning for a wintry mix... which is in effectfrom noon Tuesday to 6 PM EST Wednesday. The Winter Storm Watchis no longer in effect.* Locations... southeast North Carolina and northeast SouthCarolina.* Hazard types... snow and sleet. Freezing rain... especially near thecoast.* Accumulations... accumulations of snow and sleet inland and sleetand snow heading into Wednesday closer to the coast. Snowamounts may exceed 3 inches... .but ice accumulations may besignificant closer to the coast.* Timing... the heaviest snow and sleet is expected Tuesday night.A wintry mix may begin as early as Tuesday afternoon. Snow...sleet and freezing rain may linger into Wednesday... especiallyalong the coast when greatest chance of accumulating snow willoccur.* Winds... north 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.* Temperatures... in the mid 20s.* Impacts... very dangerous travel is expected to develop asroads become snow or ice covered. Bridges will be icy andextremely hazardous. There may be lengthy power interruptionsas winds gust to 20 to 30 mph during the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 If you look there are 2 SW 1 off the baja region the other Cali. Nev. boarder. If the models are picking up on the one in the Baja region in the latest runs well that will lead to a more east solution. But game on if the models did not catch the 1 near the Nev. Cali. boarder. Just an FYI. The 6z was seeing that energy there just off of Cali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yikes, the RPM is brutal for Columbia. It still looks like I could get a dusting or a coating, but I'm losing hope for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Start go into a *Storm Mode Thread*? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yikes, the RPM is brutal for Columbia. It still looks like I could get a dusting or a coating, but I'm losing hope for that. by brutal do you mean lack of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Many are looking at this trend and taking the totals spit out of the Euro and what not, verbatim. Remember, this storm is more than likely to bring higher rates in the central areas of the states in question (at least the ones with no problems in their temperature profiles), such as up to 15:1 so just keep that in mind. I know this is not where we want to see the models heading, but the GFS & Euro are still disagreeing with the amount of precip brought NW. Even if we don't get a complete phase, we can still trend toward higher totals inland. I know it doesn't feel good but it's kind of like the movie Santa Claus, you gotta believe folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I've been in the "sweet spot" since the beginning and it has been nothing but an emotional rollercoaster. I've seen snow fall amounts range from 1-2 inches all the way up to 15 inches. It has trended north and west over and over and we still have another 24+ hours to go. It is going to be difficult to stay off of this website during work. Regardless of how much snow I get I do have to say it has been a fun trip for the last week, thanks for all the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just an FYI. The 6z was seeing that energy there just off of Cali. Just to me it looks like both of those short waves in the southwest are going to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just to me it looks like both of those short waves in the southwest are going to phase. It does phase on the 6z but because the southern vort is much stronger it simply absorbs it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I am suspect that the energy when off the Cali. coast last night may have split, leading to the latest runs not phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I sure hope the 6z RGEM is onto something, note the 250mb jet structure this run over the SE, specifically the jet streak that is generating over the northern Gulf Coast ahead of the southern stream short-wave. 0z run is the second graphics below, both valid +48 hrs so there is a 6 hour difference, but the 0z run did not show anything similar. 6z NAM is the last graphic for reference, does not have it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It does phase on the 6z but because the southern vort is much stronger it simply absorbs it south. Then we need to pull for the northern vort to be the main driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 so did the northern energy speed up or did the baja energy slow down more. It seems that the baja piece was always slow to eject but now snow totals have really been zapped. Makes me think something else happened with the northen piece. Not good that these unfavorable trends happen when both pieces have just become positioned where there is better sampling. Not feeling good about this,,,,,,,,but have not given up yet. Fingers Crossed. edit.....I see Burgers post above regarding the baja energy beign split and then reabsorbing the smaller piece to the south.....I guess that could be the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 from Brad Panovich via twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Robert has a new post on his site.....hot off the presses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here you go: SNOW.jpg I guess this doesn't include ice, looking at model data for ILM has a big ice storm with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I sure hope the 6z RGEM is onto something, note the 250mb jet structure this run over the SE, specifically the jet streak that is generating over the northern Gulf Coast ahead of the southern stream short-wave. 0z run is the second graphics below, both valid +48 hrs so there is a 6 hour difference, but the 0z run did not show anything similar. 6z NAM is the last graphic for reference, does not have it either. Thats a good sign. If it develops then precip over the gulf coast would be enhanced with higher precip amounts. I sure it would also help with keeping this moving. But a jet streak is a sure sign of intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 past few runs of the gfs and nam have cooled temps significantly for chs, hope the trend continues and it becomes more of a snow/sleet event than frz rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I guess this doesn't include ice, looking at model data for ILM has a big ice storm with the snow. No, does not include ice at all. That's a separate parameter, and it's very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/427793253971161089 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 new 9z sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This sounds hopeful from WxSouth on Facebook: The models are not forecasting this well, so far, and don't have a good handle on the details. The break away secondary upper low spinning now in the Southwest will continue to slide east, and break out precip over the Southeast, from eastern Texas through the Tenn. Valley by early Tuesday, as snow. Then that shield may consolidate and focus snow and sleet in the Carolinas, part of Virginia, much of Georgia and Alabama...with the ending of the storm hitting the eastern Carolinas down through GA the hardest I think. But the models are going to blow the western edge/excellent overrunning setup over the Arctic boundary that usually starts before they think it will. I don't like any particular model run on the QPF. More discussion at www.wxsouth.com and custom maps, graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 To counter: from news14. Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/427788192457035777 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 new 9z sref This would support the 6z GFS with near .5 liquid near the RDU airport. The .25 would be just west of Charlotte and Winston-Salem. If this verified I think most would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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