burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 AN ADVISORY...MUCH LESS A WATCH AT THIS POINT. MEANWHILE...THE 03Z SREF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS ATTAINABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE UNCERTAINTY PROBLEM HAS For Christs sake, THEY SAY IT IN THE DISCUSSION. Anything to fit his narrative. I think GSP is not making the right call. While I agree with them this is an all or nothing storm isn't it better to err on the side of caution and at least issue a watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Burger Honestly thought I would wake up to at least a Winter Weather Advisory in Union County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looking forward to some analysis of the overnight/early morning runs. Hopefully some mets and a few of our great non-mets can clarify where things stand as of this a.m. Looks like the most recent trends haven't been favorable, but there are more model runs to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Burger Honestly thought I would wake up to at least a Winter Weather Advisory in Union County. Yea I mean I sort of get it. Overnight runs were not favorable for us but still I like how they said practically every model except the NAM was giving us watch criteria but they were going with their gut. Latest RAP is interesting it's faster with that southern energy. If that thing gets moving it will be all it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The trend overnight has been toward the two pieces of energy missing the phase, and I have a hunch that will continue. Looks like the southern branch energy will be just a little too slow. Unless significant changes take place, this will be northern branch driven system, which in this case, is not good news for snow fans along and NW of I-85. The models are seeing that now, and that is why you have seen the eastward adjustment of the precip shield in the SREF modeling. The 6z GFS cut the precip totals in half from the 0z run for places like CLT, RDU, and GSO. In fact, I wouldn't be totally shocked if the eastward trend continued. If so, this will be painful for places like ATL, CLT, and GSO to watch. But if things stabilize as they are now, I would expect some along I-85 to see at least some snow. Having said all of that, this is a major winter storm for the eastern Carolinas. Hopefully areas closer to the coast will receive more sleet and freezing rain, because of ZR is the main ptype, it's big trouble for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well damn I really didn't see the baja low to suddenly trend back west like that. Going to be tough to take with all the progress made yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One caveat... if the southern branch energy speeds up, then it's a whole new ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well damn I really didn't see the baja low to suddenly trend back west like that. Going to be tough to take with all the progress made yesterday. Yep the roller coaster ride continues. It's a shame the ride is almost over. Hoping we can still pull one out of the hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 OBS thread opened for business to keep the disco thread lees cluttered. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42597-128-130-se-winter-storm-obs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The individual ensemble snow depth plots are further east less for every one. If the 12z keeps with the 6z, then I think it may really be time to throw it in. Almost did just prior to the 18z gfs yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 FWIW, the latest RPM model, which has been very suppressed, is much further NW with the snow shield. Run is just coming in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 One caveat... if the southern branch energy speeds up, then it's a whole new ballgame. I'll be interested to see the trends in the RAP. It's not too far off from the 18z GFS at 5h. However it's bad when even progressive models are slowing it down and nothing is really showing good interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You can see the southern energy this morning on the water vapor loop. Right now, it looks very progressive. This can change; however, it looks to be moving eastward very quickly. If we do not see a change very soon in the models in regards to the phasing and this is northern stream dominated. Not ready to give up quite yet, but I was expecting better runs last night and this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Something we need to watch for on the 12z is if that northern energy can slow down more or dig. That's going to be key. 6z NAM actually does interact with the southern branch but it's just way too late. If that energy up north can dig and slow down a little more it's business time. It's a lot to ask for though and at this point it doesn't look much like it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 You can see the southern energy this morning on the water vapor loop. Right now, it looks very progressive. This can change; however, it looks to be moving eastward very quickly. If we do not see a change very soon in the models in regards to the phasing and this is northern stream dominated. Not ready to give up quite yet, but I was expecting better runs last night and this morning... It'll also be neat too see how far south it gets into the Baja. If by 6pm today or so it's further east and north that's a really good sign depending on where that northern energy sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You have to give a hand to RAH for not wavering yesterday and this morning. Basically they have been stating(the whole time) that the significant snow totals will be south and east of Raleigh. Their Winter Storm Watches this morning shows that thinking. **I should feel good because I'm in Wake County, but I'm right on the boarder with Granville. You never want to be the last county in a watch and then be right on the boarder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It'll also be neat too see how far south it gets into the Baja. If by 6pm today or so it's further east and north that's a really good sign depending on where that northern energy sets up. I agree 100%. Models do not handle phasing very well because everything has to come together just perfectly; however, we need to see some sort of trend over the next few hours. It was the 12z runs on December 23 that really brought the change towards a snowier pattern for the Christmas 2010 storm. That was only 24-30 hours out, so there is still a chance. A 100 mile move is possible either way, but it all depends on the phasing. The southern stream must be quicker or the northern stream must dig farther. In my opinion, it needs to be the southern stream quicker, eastward, and north of where the models have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You have to give a hand to RAH for not wavering yesterday and this morning. Basically they have been stating(the whole time) that the significant snow totals will be south and east of Raleigh. Their Winter Storm Watches this morning shows that thinking. **I should feel good because I'm in Wake County, but I'm right on the boarder with Granville. You never want to be the last county in a watch and then be right on the boarder. Yes. In fact they may have pulled the WSW trigger too quickly for Wake county based on the 6z's which weren't out yet as it was closing in on decision time for the nws and they had to go with something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You can see the southern energy this morning on the water vapor loop. Right now, it looks very progressive. This can change; however, it looks to be moving eastward very quickly. If we do not see a change very soon in the models in regards to the phasing and this is northern stream dominated. Not ready to give up quite yet, but I was expecting better runs last night and this morning... Is the Northern wave visible on this loop yet, I don't see it, but whatever system is trying to push into Washington and Oregon may keep the S stream moving east at a steady pace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Is the Northern wave visible on this loop yet, I don't see it, but whatever system is trying to push into Washington and Oregon may keep the S stream moving east at a steady pace? It's diving through MT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Is the Northern wave visible on this loop yet, I don't see it, but whatever system is trying to push into Washington and Oregon may keep the S stream moving east at a steady pace? It is hard to see the northern stream on this loop; however, it is just now starting to enter the northern United States. That system over Washington and Oregon may help; however, I do not want it to push the northern stream east either. We need the northern stream as far west as possible and the southern stream as quick as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looking forward to some analysis of the overnight/early morning runs. Hopefully some mets and a few of our great non-mets can clarify where things stand as of this a.m. Looks like the most recent trends haven't been favorable, but there are more model runs to come. Bong, I think the 6z suite lowered the precip totals slightly for the Macon area but seems to put us more into a ip/snow scenario rather than the dreaded zr. So, I'll give up just a little snow depth for a few days of not having to go to a hotel to take a bath ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 From looking at the WV imagery this morning, I just don't get the feel that we will see a phase in time. Looks like the southern branch energy will be a little too slow. This is not based on modeling, just the old eyeball test. Hopefully it will speed up. Would like to have to adjust those thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 From looking at the WV imagery this morning, I just don't get the feel that we will see a phase in time. Looks like the southern branch energy will be a little too slow. This is not based on modeling, just the old eyeball test. Hopefully it will speed up. Would like to have to adjust those thoughts. Any additional info on the RPM? Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just looking at the actual circulation of the S wave, it looks to be scooting along the AZ / Mexico border. If it doesn't get down into Mexico and continues E, that should help if it was suppose to go down to the Baha? Maybe just grasping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Did the 6z GEFS trend drier too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Did the 6z GEFS trend drier too? Yes... less than .50 in RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yes... less than .50 in RDU Awesome. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Awesome. Thanks. No problem...it does have the .50 line running along the Johnston/Wake line, if that's any help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just looking at the actual circulation of the S wave, it looks to be scooting along the AZ / Mexico border. If it doesn't get down into Mexico and continues E, that should help if it was suppose to go down to the Baha? Maybe just grasping You're looking at the wrong thing. You need to be looking at the area that is swirling off the baja. That is our energy in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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