1/28 - 1/30 Storm Thread II

[SnowGoose69]

They also didnt buy the nam or gfs on Boxing Day in NE for cpl cycles , when a trend began. I think they favor continuity more than most. If the graphic is indeed updated for 0z suite

Edit lol superjames beat me to it wrt boxing day

 

That was actually an odd scenario, there was a major initialization error at 12Z which they felt may have caused the sudden shift west by the GFS...when the 18Z NAM also went west it was again believed to be due to the error because there is 12Z data in those 18Z runs...hence they felt the 00Z runs would return to normal.....the 12Z Euro being way west though made many believe something was up.

[weatherfide]

So they're discounting an "A" class global model, well under 72 hours (and more like 50 hrs), two runs, two excellent ensemble agreements on those runs, and going for a second class regional model and a run on another global that is well over 12 hours old? All for the sake of continuity? Wonder what the verification score for the GFS is at 60 hours?

They also didnt buy the nam or gfs on Boxing Day in NE for cpl cycles , when a trend began. I think they favor continuity more than most. If the graphic is indeed updated for 0z suite

Edit lol superjames beat me to it wrt boxing day

[John1122]

Model discussion...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

Very odd that they could both look at the 12z suite of models and come up with almost the exact opposite conclusions from them.

[LovingGulfLows]

Wow, those latest GEFS runs put my area(24 miles east/southeast of Atlanta) between .50-.75. Very nice. Atlanta area looks to do well with southern areas obviously doing better.

[Wow]

The 0z GEFS total QPF amt is essentially an average between the 0z operational and the 18z GEFS.

[packbacker]

Yeah, but WRAL keeps saying east of Raleigh will have the biggest precip. OK, but if they get a foot of snow and Raleigh only gets 8 inches, that's still a big deal.

Here is where stand...

GFS/GEFS - 7-9"

Euro/Euro ENS - 1-3"

NAM - 2-4"

UK - 3-4"

CMC - 1-2"

AVG - 2.8-4.4"

[dsaur]

It looks to me like the gfs wants to keep running moisture underneath while highs come down, and do this all over again in a week.  Get a split flow and some classic blocking..could we beat this in Feb?  I like this winter!!  Tony

[negative-nao]

0z GEFS out to 72 hrs.. 24hr total QPF

 

 

 

taken verbatim that looks like 1.67 QPF over CHS or just a tad west in Berekley County 

[Stormsfury]

What year was the really crippling ice storm in coastal SC. 79-80ish? I remember my dad was in chs for work and trapped there a couple days

It was the President's Day Blizzard 1979.  Major Icestorm that shut everything down for days 

[GaWx]

Probably about time for a round of applause for Mr. FeelGood, Larry!!!!  Looks like he's roped a monster in the making.  Good on ya, Larry!  I think this one will top your Sav call, by a wide margin, though the Sav call may have been the tougher needle to thread

 

 Thanks, Tony! May the sleet be with you!! This may be the storm for which you've been patiently waiting. Much deserved sir!

 

 An honorable mention is definitely due for Shawn, who encouraged me to start the thread despite some opposition.

 

 Also, kudos to Goofy for those very early runs from ~9-11 days ago repeatedly suggesting wintry threats very late in their runs. Further, kudos to Doc for those two early runs starting with the 0Z of 1/21 showing 1"+ of coastal snow from CHS north to NC!! Yes, in case folks have forgotten, the King lead the way regarding the rare coastal threat an impressive one week in advance! From my post early on 1/22 for those who forgot:

 

  "Still another Euro run with a major winter storm for part of the SE during 1/28-30 (3rd in a row)! Per 0Z Euro and eerily similar to last night's 0Z Euro, there is 1"+ snow on the SC and NC coasts 1/28 from CHS northward with heaviest of 4-7" much of NC coast and including Outer Banks! 1"+ snow goes inland about 100 miles. Florence gets about 1". Savannah is close to getting a little bit of snow with temp.s' staying at or below 32 all day and with light qpf of~0.07")/850's near 0C and then falling)."

 

 Then, of course, great kudos to those Euro ensemble runs starting 12Z on 1/21 that got Shawn and myself, among others, very excited.

 

 One more mention is due the Crazy Uncle, which found its nut this time pretty early before later losing it.

[Wow]

The individual GEFS maps are coming out and it's an equal mixture of full phasing and partial phasing scenarios of varying degrees, and a lone member holding the baja low back entirely.

 

Just about every one sweet spots the general Fayetteville area, looking at the snow maps.  Ta

[dsaur]

Yeah, Shawn has been all over this.  And Goofy..  I never give up on Goofy.  I like the Gfs even when others don't.  Sometimes it just knows stuff, and sometimes the Doc is just a butthead   T

[Shawn]

 Thanks, Tony! May the sleet be with you!! This may be the storm for which you've been patiently waiting. Much deserved sir!

 

 An honorable mention is definitely due for Shawn, who encouraged me to start the thread despite some opposition.

 

 Also, kudos to Goofy for those very early runs from ~9-11 days ago repeatedly suggesting wintry threats very late in their runs. Further, kudos to Doc for those two early runs starting with the 0Z of 1/21 showing 1"+ of coastal snow from CHS north to NC!! Yes, in case folks have forgotten, the King lead the way regarding the rare coastal threat an impressive one week in advance! From my post early on 1/22 for those who forgot:

 

  "Still another Euro run with a major winter storm for part of the SE during 1/28-30 (3rd in a row)! Per 0Z Euro and eerily similar to last night's 0Z Euro, there is 1"+ snow on the SC and NC coasts 1/28 from CHS northward with heaviest of 4-7" much of NC coast and including Outer Banks! 1"+ snow goes inland about 100 miles. Florence gets about 1". Savannah is close to getting a little bit of snow with temp.s' staying at or below 32 all day and with light qpf of~0.07")/850's near 0C and then falling)."

 

 Then, of course, great kudos to those Euro ensemble runs starting 12Z on 1/21 that got Shawn and myself, among others, very excited.

 

 One more mention is due the Crazy Uncle, which found its nut this time pretty early before later losing it.

 

Thanks!

 

It looks like this event is definitely going to pan out for someone in a major way.  I don't exactly agree with the WPC's side of the 12z models from earlier; but they may just be waiting for the Euro to bring the heavier precipitation Westward like other guidance has.

 

I am liking the chances for SC/NC/GA to get something meaningful this time around.  The Euro ensembles were just fine earlier; so not sure why the OP is still being so hard-headed!

[yoda]

The individual GEFS maps are coming out and it's an equal mixture of full phasing and partial phasing scenarios of varying degrees, and a lone member holding the baja low back entirely.

 

Just about every one sweet spots the general Fayetteville area, looking at the snow maps.  Ta

 

Is this on E-Wall or on the AmWx site here?

[Wow]

Is this on E-Wall or on the AmWx site here?

 

here.. treat the snow maps with care.. keep in mind that a lot of that area closer to the coast will most likely be ice.

 

[deltadog03]

HR24 the euro is further E with the southern wave and a smidge west with northern.

[deltadog03]

HR 36, that southern piece is a nice distance E from the 12z run...northern piece a little W and a little slower.

[Wow]

It's way more in line with the GFS.. no doubt about it.

[deltadog03]

Its a little wetter inland, and its kicking out the SW energy, the northern branch is just a bit too fast.  However was a good little trend.

[GaWx]

Many inland folks will like this 0Z Euro since it is further NW with the precip. and features.

[Buckethead]

ok, For the new folks in the room remember this does not run for free!! Their is a lot of work to keep this up and running Please do the subscription Drive and DONATE....... This is what keep it up and running year after year!!!

 

 

 

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Do any of you guys have a link to check soil temps?  KCAE noted in their discussion that the soil temps are actually cooler than they were for the Feb 2010 storm, so no worries for most if not all of us I would think, but I'm still wanting to take a look...

[Wow]

Its a little wetter inland, and its kicking out the SW energy, the northern branch is just a bit too fast.  However was a good little trend.

 

Indeed.. much more in line with the new "consensus" on placement.  Euro was just a tad bit too fast moving the polar energy across to get a near complete phase.  The Baja s/w placement was great.

[seahawkbaseball#6]

Ok - correct me if I am wrong - but looking at the 850mb the euro has all of NC freezing by just 36hrs out...the would be a sign of an ALL snow for NC...right...no ice/sleet like the GFS is showing? (assuming surface is also freezing which it will be)

Yes, just have to watch the warm nose closer to the coast if we get a phaser....WAA is not your friend if you want all snow.

[packbacker]

Indeed.. much more in line with the new "consensus" on placement.  Euro was just a tad bit too fast moving the polar energy across to get a near complete phase.  The Baja s/w placement was great.

That was close, NS slows down a tad it could have been bigger. In fact there is a gulf low at 72 from the missed phase which will get shunted SE.

[mackerel_sky]

There are just too many pieces flying around for the models to get a lock on. The speed and interaction of said pieces will take until tomorrow to possibly get a better lock. A general western shift today was a positive for most on here. Tomorrow will get a few wrinkles ironed out .

[Shawn]

FWIW; Euro is much colder and there really aren't any temp issues in KCAE.  -2 as the precip arrives.

 

Southern GA and the coasts look to at least end as a good bit of snow.

 

Using the "accumulated snow" maps give way too much to many; but using the actual "snow depth" maps show a much calmer scenario for everyone.

 

The ensemble mean is going to make everyone happy (whos in the OP precip) I bet!  If anyone has it to show later tonight.

[mackerel_sky]

What do you think so far about possible amounts for the Greenville area?

Based on model avgs today, I'd say 1-3 would be doable, which is better than 0 when today started. Could be alot more, could be nothing. Tomorrow will be telling

[GaWx]

The SAV-CHS corridor, especially inland a bit, may be getting hit pretty hard with ~0.75" of qpf, which looks to me to be mainly ZR to start with 850's near +4 C, followed by a change to IP, and then snow toward the end. The two meter 32 line is actually modeled to be very nearby but the Euro sometimes has a warm bias in wintry precip. situations. We'll see. This is similar to the prior run. If any location were to receive over 1/2" of ZR, it could be pretty damaging being that the last one of that caliber or worse was quite a long time back, especially areas south of CHS. SAV hasn't had 0.50" of ZR in many decades.

[dsaur]

Larry, I was talking to my mother about past snows like this, and she mentioned in 38 or 39 when she was at Wesleyan, they had a big snow where they took trays out of the cafeteria and went sliding.  So that's a Macon snow she remembers, if you've heard of it.  T

[ILMRoss]

The SAV-CHS corridor, especially inland a bit, may be getting hit pretty hard with ~0.75" of qpf, which looks to me to be mainly ZR to start with 850's near +4 C, followed by a change to IP, and then snow toward the end. The two meter 32 line is actually modeled to be very nearby but the Euro sometimes has a warm bias in wintry precip. situations. We'll see. This is similar to the prior run. If any location were to receive over 1/2" of ZR, it could be pretty damaging being that the last one of that caliber or worse was quite a long time back, especially areas south of CHS. SAV hasn't had 0.50" of ZR in many decades.

It sounds like the Euro is drier overall.