Shawn Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Does anyone still have the image/frame of the GFS being the first to grab this southeast snow chance almost 300 hours out many many days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Speaking of the CMC, must say it earns the mid-range coup on this one, unless the storm falls apart at the last minute. It nailed the storm in the Northeast 4 days ago at about Day 5-7 as well and then lost it only to bring it back...it was the only model showing it at that range...the CMC has had a tendency to catch storms well out, the problem is it loses them frequently inside Day 6...it also nailed the 2/25/10 NYC snow/Boston mainly rain bomb at 200-240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Did I miss the GFS ensembles? nope, not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The NavGEM trend 18z: 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Dallas, Birmingham, Columbia and every big city along I-20 has had a snow of 6" or greater in the last 30 years except for Atlanta. Let's face it, Atlanta is just very unlucky. I'm talking the airport. DFW is much more favorable for snow than ATL overall, they are similar in that they will usually be too far south and warm for big/amped up systems and generally need weaker.overrunning type ones to get hit but they can get those weaker waves alot easier than ATL can...BHM has an advantage of the cold air tending to work in alot faster it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 0z GEFS out to 24... so far no change I can discern. Baja low a hair stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z GFS is around 6 inches for KCAE on COBB output with the whole event being snow as the ptype. Seems a bit right considering temps aren't that great; but a little bit low as on the surface maps precip tried to blossom back over us. Worthy exchange for no ptype issues vs 18z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 i agree that overrunning may be an issue, precip onset here in chs looks to be around 3-4pm but if it came earlier we could have serious issues in regards to rush hour and kids still in school seeing as pretty much everywhere is connected by a bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ensembles out to 72.. still precip all over the place. A bit east of 18z (like 20 or 30 miles on avg), but still just as prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The ens. mean matches up well with the 0z op. Precip a little further west. Around .75 to 1 inch of qpf for RDU...I'd say around .5 for CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I was looking at sounding at several locations earlier on the SREF and it seems to me that the moisture is wanting to move back west farther than any other model. The farther east toward the coast its profile was more of a sleet and FZ. The reason bring this up is that it was one of the first models to pick up this west movement. It will be interesting see what the 00z spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The ens. mean matches up well with the 0z op. Precip a little further west. Around .75 to 1 inch of qpf for RDU. How far west, and how much? can you post map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Dallas, Birmingham, Columbia and every big city along I-20 has had a snow of 6" or greater in the last 30 years except for Atlanta. Let's face it, Atlanta is just very unlucky. I'm talking the airport. I know Atlanta is far south, but they are also higher in elevation than most cities along I-20. You would figure they would get a 6" snow more often than once every 30 years. See, that's the deal. The cutoff's are so sharp around here. In 73 I was too far north for over a foot. In 93 I was too far south. You've got to luck out and be in the sweet spot. That's why I've been teasing Candyman, because he has no idea how hard it is to get in the sweet spot in Ga. Like now, no one knows where this is going. Who gets the brass ring in Ga. Delta? Candyman? Shack? Lookout, me you. It's a crap shoot down here because there is never a wide spread foot for more than, what a 6th of the state? It's a crap shoot on who get the cheese. Poor Greg got sunny, earlier in the decade while I got 8 inches from that first ULL a few years back. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ensembles out to 72.. still precip all over the place HPC not buying NAM or GFS, going with 12zUK and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This would put CHS in the bullseye for some good snow 3+ with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hello to all my friends! Hope you all are well! Have only had a chance to glance at the 00Z models, but it looks like there is a slight trend back west. Either way you dice it, we have something BONAFIDE to track FINALLY!! Good luck to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 0z GEFS out to 72 hrs.. 24hr total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 0z GEFS Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How far west, and how much? can you post map? I can't post a map due to paid site but I'd say you're area is around .1 qpf on the ens. mean. EDIT: I see wow just posted a map...Was I close for your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 HPC not buying NAM or GFS, going with 12zUK and Euro Heh, they may be right, but that reminds me of Christmas 2010....................... The GEFS Mean still looks good, though it is a little drier out this way. No reason to freak out, though. Verbatim, it's the biggest storm since 2010 and a lot colder than anything in years. We have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 HPC not buying NAM or GFS, going with 12zUK and EuroThey also didnt buy the nam or gfs on Boxing Day in NE for cpl cycles , when a trend began. I think they favor continuity more than most. If the graphic is indeed updated for 0z suiteEdit lol superjames beat me to it wrt boxing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I can't post a map due to paid site but I'd sat you're area is around .1 qpf on the ens. mean. Ok thanks, better than nothing! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The ens. mean matches up well with the 0z op. Precip a little further west. Around .75 to 1 inch of qpf for RDU...I'd say around .5 for CLT. The ensemble support is just crazy, almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The ensemble support is just crazy, almost identical. I know...I'm shocked at the changes today. I'm not going to make the euro due to an early morning but I hope it matches up w/ the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 HPC not buying NAM or GFS, going with 12zUK and Euro Really? This is their afternoon disco. THE WPCFORECAST DID NOT GIVE STRONG WEIGHTING TO THE NAM...WHICH WAS THE SLOWEST AND MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ALSO DISCOUNTED THE UKMET...WHICH WAS FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. IN THE END GAVE THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE GFS...WHICH FELL CLOSEST TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL SPREAD AND WAS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE UKMET/ECMWF TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Tomorrow is going to be a wild ride of emotions! That is when the Baja low gets over land and get sampled better Big Frosty right now it just doesn't look like our year buddy! Hopefully it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wouldn't hang my hat on euro tonite bc if i am not mistaken its bias of hangin energy back in the sw may keep this further se (by holding back more of baja energy) for another cycle or so. Thou im not sure if that bias is still present inside 72 hrs. In short i would follow the gfs/gefs closer for next 12-24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Really? This is their afternoon disco. Model discussion... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The ens. mean matches up well with the 0z op. Precip a little further west. Around .75 to 1 inch of qpf for RDU...I'd say around .5 for CLT. The ensemble support is just crazy, almost identical. Yeah, but WRAL keeps saying east of Raleigh will have the biggest precip. OK, but if they get a foot of snow and Raleigh only gets 8 inches, that's still a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good run for the ATL crowd! Heck, all of North Georgia tops .1"! I'm going to sleep now. Y'all reel in the Euro for me!! I hope to wake up to good news! Goodnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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