SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Kyle, I've gone from .07, to .71, to 2.7, and back to I don't know because Meteostar doesn't have it yet, and I haven't tried BuffKit, lol. I don't know what we are getting, but it's a lot, from all accounts. If I can't get in the sleet zone, then I want to break a foot of snow. I've never seen a foot outside of Europe. I want to break a foot, by a foot, lol. Good luck to us both!! T ATL is majorly overdue for a monster snow event from the stats I saw today....the last event more than 5 inches was in 1992 and the last more than 6 was in 82? Even for a place that only averages 1-2 inches a year at their latitude an event at or exceeding 6 inches should probably occur every 10-15 years...20 at worst...I'm not sure I buy the airport measurement from 3/13/93 however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 @WxSouth: Foot of snow possible between CLT, RDU, ORF. No model has enough interaction from Baja low yet, but they will soon. Regardless, snow in SE Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ATL is majorly overdue for a monster snow event from the stats I saw today....the last event more than 5 inches was in 1992 and the last more than 6 was in 82? Even for a place that only averages 1-2 inches a year at their latitude an event at or exceeding 6 inches should probably occur every 10-15 years...20 at worst...I'm not sure I buy the airport measurement from 3/13/93 however. The airport measurement was a bit odd in '93. I witnessed that storm first hand in McDonough, GA, 15 miles or so se, and we had 4" to 5". The wind created much deeper drifts, though.It scoured it out of some areas and moved it into very uneven deposits. Anyway, there does seem to be some not so insignificant chance for something greater than 6" in Atlanta this time, although I'm not making a call on it. There is a long fetch of moisture with this system. Minor fluctuations can have major changes through the duration of the event. Very fun to track! This makes winter of 2013/2014, one of my favorites, even if we don't get but an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 @WxSouth: Think #Atlanta gets 3" + snow Tue PM/Wed. Some sleet too. CAE, FAY, RDU probably top snow list amounts WXSOUTH @WxSouth 18m Foot of snow possible between CLT, RDU, ORF. No model has enough interaction from Baja low yet, but they will soon. Regardless, snow in SE WXSOUTH @WxSouth 18 mins Once more influence from Baja is seen by models, they will adjust QPF west and increase amounts in SE overall. Big Ticket item #snow #ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man, the Canadian is taking its sweet time tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Canadian at hr48 Image broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 @WxSouth: Foot of snow possible between CLT, RDU, ORF. No model has enough interaction from Baja low yet, but they will soon. Regardless, snow in SE Sent from my iPhone Sounds good! Haven't gotten a foot of snow since 1988. The curse must end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The RGEM took a dive south at 42-48 so my guess is the GGEM will do the same as it tends to follow how the RGEM ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ATL is majorly overdue for a monster snow event from the stats I saw today....the last event more than 5 inches was in 1992 and the last more than 6 was in 82? Even for a place that only averages 1-2 inches a year at their latitude an event at or exceeding 6 inches should probably occur every 10-15 years...20 at worst...I'm not sure I buy the airport measurement from 3/13/93 however. It's right. I'm 40 miles south of downtown, about 20 from the airport, and I had maybe 2 1/2. Hard to tell because the wind blew it all into the ditches and brushlines. It was whiteout conditions, and the most amazing storm I ever saw, but not much snow down here. The real snow came down around the top of 1 285. I'm 66 and the most I've ever seen in Ga, and that was down here, was 10 1/2 in 97, I think. A spring storm. A lot of my biggest snows have been spring storms. My favorite storms have been sleet storms. We can get 4 inches of sleet..and to me that is far superior to snow, any day...but I'm kind of out on a limb down here, on that account, lol. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh wow -- huge change in 0z Canadian -- at 48 hours southern energy over western Mexico vs. west of BAJA on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 @WxSouth: Think #Atlanta gets 3" + snow Tue PM/Wed. Some sleet too. CAE, FAY, RDU probably top snow list amounts I'll take that and raise you 2 more inches in Rocky Mount ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 31m 00z GFS not epic monster it was at 18z. Still a good 6-8 inches for RDU. See you in the am! http://models.americanwx.com pic.twitter.com/QyoAIZ7Uy2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 At 60 hours, not as much westerly impact on precip as you might think, although a clear trend in that direction -- also quite a bit more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh wow -- huge change in 0z Canadian -- at 48 hours southern energy over western Mexico vs. west of BAJA on the 12z run. Here is the 60 panel -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh wow -- huge change in 0z Canadian -- at 48 hours southern energy over western Mexico vs. west of BAJA on the 12z run. Yeah, nice jog WNW there. The trend is definitely real. Still misses the phase oppurtunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 0z CMC really nice run for extreme South Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Sounds good! Haven't gotten a foot of snow since 1988. The curse must end! Tell my man Robert i'll be glad to measure and verify it for him. Key word is "possible." Glad he's chimed in on the baja mystery. It's the key piece to the puzzle for someone getting lit-up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 00Z NavGEM (NOGAPS) is not all that far south of the NAM or GFS...red flag if you ask me and a strong possibility Wxsouth's idea is right...I always like seeing where that model is given it has a strong progressive and suppression bias...to see it so close to the NAM and GFS is suspicious...no guarantee we will see a north trend but an increased chance for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Did I miss the GFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 00Z NavGEM (NOGAPS) is not all that far south of the NAM or GFS...red flag if you ask me and a strong possibility Wxsouth's idea is right...I always like seeing where that model is given it has a strong progressive and suppression bias...to see it so close to the NAM and GFS is suspicious...no guarantee we will see a north trend but an increased chance for sure.We're pulling out the NOGAPS? It's been so long since I even thought of that model. Why is it relevant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We're pulling out the NOGAPS? It's been so long since I even thought of that model. Why is it relevant? I like using the NOGAPS as a tool to guage other models purely because it has such a strong progressive bias...it can give you an idea if the other models may be too amped/too flat....same reason I like seeing the NAM's placement at 72-84 hours...if all the global models show a storm hitting the coast but the 84 hour NAM is flatter than them, good chance they may be too far west since the 84 hour NAM is usually well west/north of all other models at that timeframe as its overamped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 00Z NavGEM (NOGAPS) is not all that far south of the NAM or GFS...red flag if you ask me and a strong possibility Wxsouth's idea is right...I always like seeing where that model is given it has a strong progressive and suppression bias...to see it so close to the NAM and GFS is suspicious...no guarantee we will see a north trend but an increased chance for sure. I agree w/ you and wxsouth. my main thought has been on the trajectory of the pj wave. i think it will continue to carve further southwest than model guidance suggests, allowing more time for the stj to get ahead of it. whether it's a complete phase or partial phase, i think we'll see more interaction than what's currently shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One thing is for sure right now a big snow for someone in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I agree w/ you and wxsouth. my main thought has been on the trajectory of the pj wave. i think it will continue to carve further southwest than model guidance suggests, allowing more time for the stj to get ahead of it. whether it's a complete phase or partial phase, i think we'll see more interaction than what's currently shown. I'm also very concerned about massive overrunning 6 hours or more ahead of when the models show precip right now, the 00Z GFS shows that idea from 42-48 as precipitation explodes...would not be surprised though if thats 6 hours too slow and also not wet enough...of course that would mean precip into cities at 10am vs maybe 4-5pm...a big difference if many decide they'll go to work til 1-2pm then go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Easier to see on color maps why southern stream progression didn't have dramatic impact on sensible weather -- it's because northern stream was also further east. Perhaps not as dramatically as southern stream, but still too far to "catch up." Still, better run overall than12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Update from Brad Panovich 11:35pm after 0z GFS: I'll be posting new updates in the morning on the midweek storm. So far not seeing anything to change my thinking tonight. Sticking with 1-2" Charlotte area, with much higher amounts east. I'll reassess after the overnight data tomorrow morning. Good Night & sleep well. ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Did I miss the GFS ensembles? Not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm also very concerned about massive overrunning 6 hours or more ahead of when the models show precip right now, the 00Z GFS shows that idea from 42-48 as precipitation explodes...would not be surprised though if thats 6 hours too slow and also not wet enough...of course that would mean precip into cities at 10am vs maybe 4-5pm...a big difference if many decide they'll go to work til 1-2pm then go home. Huge issue if school isn't closed and just on an early let-out for some locations. I'd think most close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Speaking of the CMC, must say it earns the mid-range coup on this one, unless the storm falls apart at the last minute. Easier to see on color maps why southern stream progression didn't have dramatic impact on sensible weather -- it's because northern stream was also further east. Perhaps not as dramatically as southern stream, but still too far to "catch up." Still, better run overall than12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ATL is majorly overdue for a monster snow event from the stats I saw today....the last event more than 5 inches was in 1992 and the last more than 6 was in 82? Even for a place that only averages 1-2 inches a year at their latitude an event at or exceeding 6 inches should probably occur every 10-15 years...20 at worst...I'm not sure I buy the airport measurement from 3/13/93 however. Dallas, Birmingham, Columbia and every big city along I-20 has had a snow of 6" or greater in the last 30 years except for Atlanta. Let's face it, Atlanta is just very unlucky. I'm talking the airport. I know Atlanta is far south, but they are also higher in elevation than most cities along I-20. You would figure they would get a 6" snow more often than once every 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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