packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 UK a BIG shift west images coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 UK images One on the right is precip 36-48 hours and one on left is precip from 48-60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 0z GFS is better than I expected given its outcome with the baja low. Curious how the ensembles take it. I was not looking forward to it after 18-24 hours. It did well though, I view it as a compromise between the sref and euro. If the other global models tick west I am all in on this. I really want a big shift west with the euro but I'm guessing we'll see a solution a bit worse than the gfs for inland folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 0Z RGEM is encouraging -- much more precip at 48 hours than the 12z GGEM had at 60 hours. Can't see into Mexico to see what happens to southern energy, but wouldn't be surprised to see the Big Brother Canadian make a comeback on 0z run. It looked great through 45 then at 48 suddenly seemed south of the GFS/NAM with its precip but it was promising I thought through 39-42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm still around 3 to 4 inches for my area , best I can tell on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Now, we're finally getting everyone in line. The Euro has to cave tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's probably 4-5" with 10:1, so probably 5-6" with ratios, verbatim for you? Nice, I would take that right now and call it a day. I would take that but 2-4 is fine with me.Hopefully it trends more our way but if not it will be a good storm for others. Hope ZR is not as bad as models show for coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just my two cents worth but I think in respect to the Western half of the Carolinas and for the Atlanta Metro area, the 18z GFS operational was a depiction of the best case scenario. The 0z may be a more realistic solution with the totals sharply dropping off west of I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z GFS northern stream trough not as sharp as 18z...good trends today though for inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Now, we're finally getting everyone in line. The Euro has to cave tonight. If its history up north this winter is any truth it will take its sweet time caving, alittle bit at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I was not looking forward to it after 18-24 hours. It did well though, I view it as a compromise between the sref and euro. If the other global models tick west I am all in on this. I really want a big shift west with the euro but I'm guessing we'll see a solution a bit worse than the gfs for inland folks. reread that and I'm thinking the euro will be a compromise but the final solution will be .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 UK images One on the right is precip 36-48 hours and one on left is precip from 48-60 hours What's the scale on that, Pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Seriously, you may have to wait another 40 years to see this again, if it happens. The nam gave me 2.7 in snow. Don't know what the ratio's would be, but it's a lot. I don't believe that, because I've waited all my life for it to happen, so why would I believe it now, lol. It's fun though. Might be time to tell your viewers how to sled properly and not bust their butts, lol. I sure hope they don't lock you in the studios for a week with this one. Tony Tony, I've been prepping a monster hill out here by the lake for 10 years just waiting for a system like this event ! About a 35degree slope for about 200 feet and then a gradual runout for about another 200. I've got the camera ready ! This run of the GFS has me at an inch of precip. Haven't looked at profiles yet, but looks like sleet/frz mix to start and snow to finish. NAM gave over an inch too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For SC. For NC it looks more like somewhere between I-77 and I-85. It actually reminds me of January 2000's cutoff a little, though probably further west than that. Actually, the whole state gets snow, but if you're talking about significant snowfall... You are correct. Waiting on ensembles sure they will be good like wow said. As of right now the trend of 18z & 0z GFS op + 18z GFS ens and highly likely 0z GFs ens + 3 big Sref rums in a row have had a nice ring to them for the county I live in. 0zNam was worst for MBY but still gives a couple of inches. Love the trends and throughout tomorrow the American guidance will be critical in telling the tale now that we will be getting under the 48 hr range. The euro is nice to look at and It's ensembles are important, but it's strength is day 4-7. So hope the red white and blue has the right clue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Now, we're finally getting everyone in line. The Euro has to cave tonight. Yes, finally have another model besides NAM agreeing, I am guessing UK is probably 8-10mm for central NC, more to the coast. So 0.3-0.4" of precip, I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What's the scale on that, Pack? Check my math site URL below, but it looks like the 36-48 is 2-5mm and 48-60 is 5-10mm, so 7-15 mm total, guessing 8-10mm. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1594 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 0Z NAM shows 1.4 of snow, 1.43 of freezing rain, and close to .4 in sleet for CHS. It ends as snow. Also shows 3.9 in snow for Orangeburg, about 1/4" in ice, and close to 2" in sleet. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Through 51 hours, 20 miles south of Atlanta, looks like a total of about .45 inches liquid. Not sure what the ratios would be. Looks to give Tony's place better than mine. Kyle, I've gone from .07, to .71, to 2.7, and back to I don't know because Meteostar doesn't have it yet, and I haven't tried BuffKit, lol. I don't know what we are getting, but it's a lot, from all accounts. If I can't get in the sleet zone, then I want to break a foot of snow. I've never seen a foot outside of Europe. I want to break a foot, by a foot, lol. Good luck to us both!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Check my math site URL below, but it looks like the 36-48 is 2-5mm and 48-60 is 5-10mm, so 7-15 mm total, guessing 8-10mm. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1594 Good deal, thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Healthy eastward jog of our southern stream energy at 36 hours of the new 0z Canadian. Could be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Kyle, I've gone from .07, to .71, to 2.7, and back to I don't know because Meteostar doesn't have it yet, and I haven't tried BuffKit, lol. I don't know what we are getting, but it's a lot, from all accounts. If I can't get in the sleet zone, then I want to break a foot of snow. I've never seen a foot outside of Europe. I want to break a foot, by a foot, lol. Good luck to us both!! T I don't know if you are going to get a foot, lol, but you are going to get a good snow. I don't think you will get any sleet however, the warm nose at 750 to 825mb seems to stay south of you but not by much. You could get a little bit but it would only hurt your snow totals and won't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like us N GA folks need to have a snow party at Tony's! What ya say, T? 0z dropped the QPF numbers here when compared to the 18z. Time to see what the GEFS says! Come on down! I've got a county road that goes straight down, then straight back up...for a long way. We've been clocked at near 30 on my flexie flyer type sled. Only worry is the bridge abutment at the bottom, and the time we went in daylight and my buddy was half way down when a car came over the other hill. Fortunately Sam and the driver stayed in their lanes...but after that we don't go until after midnight..so we are the only fools out there. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If its history up north this winter is any truth it will take its sweet time caving, alittle bit at a time Hopefully, it will at least take a medium step....we're running short on time for baby steps. Thanks for providing some insight in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Uk has a terrible dry bias from my experience so that is a good output from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 @WxSouth: Think #Atlanta gets 3" + snow Tue PM/Wed. Some sleet too. CAE, FAY, RDU probably top snow list amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Canadian at hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Healthy eastward jog of our southern stream energy at 36 hours of the new 0z Canadian. Could be a good run. Yep big jump east on CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't know if you are going to get a foot, lol, but you are going to get a good snow. I don't think you will get any sleet however, the warm nose at 750 to 825mb seems to stay south of you but not by much. You could get a little bit but it would only hurt your snow totals and won't amount to much. Yeah, Chris, I'm guessing if I half the Gfs at 18, I'd be near the qpf that might come. Just never now how the line will waffle, and no sleet according to buffkit, but it's always a close call down here, and I would give up 3 inches of snow for 2 inches of sleet, if there are any takers T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Canadian at hr48 Definitely west of 12z run, but looks east of UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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