buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 CAE going with 1-2" for the central midlands .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODELS ARE ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPINGTUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE...HAVE INCREASEDPOPS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS ISFORECAST TO AMPLIFY LATE TUESDAY. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVESROTATING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF AWEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN AREA OFBROAD UPPER LEVEL FORCING.HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COLD AIR TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION.MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ARRIVINGTUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SNOWOR SLEET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF SNOW ANDSLEET ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPER COLDAIR FARTHER WEST SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO ALL SNOWTUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INDICATED A WINTRY MIX IN THE EAST WITHSNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...AND 1 TO 2 INCHESACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE FARTHER WESTAS MOISTURE DECREASES TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 good heavens, nam gives a good but of frozen precip then switches to all snow, the event lasts well into weds. it would be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 WSW have been issued for most of the southeastern NC counties. Just got the alert on my phone. Also noticed that the projected totals for Tuesday night for here have changed from 3-5 to 6-9. Thats a pretty big jump in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Very surprised there wasn't more moisture associated with the NAM. For coastal areas of SC and GA it lasts a lonnnnng time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Some of the hours are missing per the NCEP site. Might be missing data due to the run issue. Very surprised there wasn't more moisture associated with the NAM. For coastal areas of SC and GA it lasts a lonnnnng time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm only out to 36 but doesn't the precip seem more south and west this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 good heavens, nam gives a good but of frozen precip then switches to all snow, the event lasts well into weds. it would be catastrophic. For CHS, looks like through hr 75, it's about half and half freezing rain and sleet. Then it's an epic snow/sleet battle after that, as round two moves in, which gives another push of warm air aloft and it's mainly sleet through the end of the model at hr 84 as it is still precipitating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like the NAM crushes coastal NC,SC, and possibly GA. Tons of ice in SC,GA. NC may be more snow especially just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 WSW have been issued for most of the southeastern NC counties. Just got the alert on my phone. Also noticed that the projected totals for Tuesday night for here have changed from 3-5 to 6-9. Thats a pretty big jump in my opinion. I've been following for the better part of the day as well and I've noticed the WSW creep north and a bit west as well. I'm a good bit south of Raleigh and east. I expect something in the next run to firm up the details. I appreciate all the details guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The polar energy needs to be further west to pull this inland. Coastal regions looking good right now for a significant snow/ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Very surprised there wasn't more moisture associated with the NAM. For coastal areas of SC and GA it lasts a lonnnnng time. Agree, this run seemed kinda off based on 250mb early on, and H5 & 250 as it stepped. Jet in the later panels looked favorable for more intrusion into interior sections but that did not materialize. Of note, it almost closes the southern stream shortwave off to two contours at 250mb. While I do believe the chances of a complete constructive interaction of energy contained in the northern and southern streams has decreased, I do think at-least some energy will eject out ahead of the southern vort, and interact with energy coming down on the north pike. This has support from 200 and 300mb setup, where the shortwave can clearly be seen ejecting into TX around day 2.5, with perturbations out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Not sure I like being under that probability of having more than 4" haha! PS: FFC will issue Winter Storm WATCHES soon... For who, I'm not sure yet. PSS: Tallahassee has already issued theirs for south GA/SE AL/Parts of FL panhandle for possibility of up to 0.2" of freezing rain followed by up to 0.5" of snow/sleet. Fun times. What kills me, is you only just moved up here, and already you've seen about you can see of our weather, but the mid Ga mangler. I told you one was coming...I told you...but I didn't think you'd be right in the cross hairs...after just getting here. I'm mean I've waited 40 years for this to come back, even moved closer to Macon...and here, you just get here, and you are in the cat bird seat, lol. How can that be fair? You better do your meteorological tricks and get Tony a real crushing snow this time I want to see a foot of snow, in Ga. before they put me under my sled, lol. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I've been following for the better part of the day as well and I've noticed the WSW creep north and a bit west as well. I'm a good bit south of Raleigh and east. I expect something in the next run to firm up the details. I appreciate all the details guys. Fury, Unless runs come in drier I expect you might see WSW go up for Scotland, Cumberland, Johnston, Wilson, Edgecombe, and points south and east of there by late tonight early tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Very surprised there wasn't more moisture associated with the NAM. For coastal areas of SC and GA it lasts a lonnnnng time. Yesterday we were clinging to the nam b/c it was the only model showing anything. Today we still need to remember it's the nam past 48 hours and is essentially worthless lol. At this point I would following the gfs/euro compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I like accuweather's prediction of 3"-6" for the Columbia area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Pretty significant changes with the southern energy on the 18z NAM -- not moving out as fast at 48 hours vs. 54 hours on 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 My first thoughts that will go on air with tonight. https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert/posts/643975315643880 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yesterday we were clinging to the nam b/c it was the only model showing anything. Today we still need to remember it's the nam past 48 hours and is essentially worthless lol. At this point I would following the gfs/euro compromise. The 18z RGEM at 54 hours actually has more precip and is further north a bit than the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 FYI the NAM is crawling in on NCEP go to psu l ewall it's in completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The door just closed a little more for the ATLANTA metro area. There is a justified hope for a better outcome but it sure doesn't look good for us IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 NWS RAH first call map via FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The door just closed a little more for the ATLANTA metro area. There is a justified hope for a better outcome but it sure doesn't look good for us IMO. tell that to FFC who issued a WSW for the southern metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 18z RGEM at 54 hours actually has more precip and is further north a bit than the 18z NAM. Where do you get the RGEM out to 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 My first thoughts that will go on air with tonight. https://www.facebook.com/41FirstAlert/posts/643975315643880 I'll just continue your 2-4" into mby Seriously.....that looks like a pretty good call right now for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Very surprised there wasn't more moisture associated with the NAM. For coastal areas of SC and GA it lasts a lonnnnng time. I agree, I thought there should be more as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 tell that to FFC who issued a WSW for the southern metro. It's a watch. That's what we are doing, watching. Totally appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'll just continue your 2-4" into mby Seriously.....that looks like a pretty good call right now for your area Thank You...I know its on the low side, but I think we could see some higher amounts to near 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The door just closed a little more for the ATLANTA metro area. There is a justified hope for a better outcome but it sure doesn't look good for us IMO. i would love to see this trend up that way for snow, so I can get in the sleet line. I'd love to have my snow undercut with sleet. Probably the only one but there you are. Things still in play, I'd say, could be a bust for us, could get better I'm waiting to see Goofy at midnight before I let the excitement creep in...I remember too vividly what happen in 73. Weather will put in the shrive, and give it a twist, and laugh at you Best to expect to get screwed, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z GFS is further east with the southern energy and further west with that Canadian energy. Out to 33 it's really trucking that southern energy along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS still digging that NS a tick more SW through 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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