Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

1/28 - 1/30 Storm Thread II


burgertime

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Winter Storm Watch here in Conyers, Georgia, 25 miles east of Atlanta!

 

 

 

Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014


GAZ036>039-046>062-066>076-078>084-089>096-102>107-270415-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0002.140128T1500Z-140129T1800Z/
CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-
GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-
BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-
LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-
TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-MUSCOGEE-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-STEWART-
WEBSTER-SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...
PEACHTREE CITY...GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...COLUMBUS...
WARNER ROBINS...LUMPKIN...AMERICUS...CORDELE
312 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS....SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO OR MORE INCHES. SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF AN INCH OR MORE. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MORE LIKELY ALONG A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE...AND MAY UNDERCUT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS
MID MORNING TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 PM TUESDAY AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLEET COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL IN THE
TO LOWER 30S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH VALUES RISING ABOVE FREEZING
AFTER 2 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure I like being under that probability of having more than 4" haha!

 

PS: FFC will issue Winter Storm WATCHES soon... For who, I'm not sure yet.

PSS: Tallahassee has already issued theirs for south GA/SE AL/Parts of FL panhandle for possibility of up to 0.2" of freezing rain followed by up to 0.5" of snow/sleet.

 

Fun times.

 

well I don't envy you your job the next 48 hrs or so....good luck lol

 

post-141-0-12367600-1390767272_thumb.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Plumes are out, mean for RDU is just under 4" with 8 members over, FAY a little over 4" with all but 6 mems under, nothing mind shattering, consensus is for about 4" from Columbia to Raleigh, slight uptick as you head east but not as much one would expect.

Interesting as there could even be a difference of a coupe inches simply between the RDU airport and say; Knightdale or Garner just east and south of Raleigh. It's sounds that close

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MHX just updated the grids, now 70% here Tuesday night and Wednesday, eastern half of the CWA went to 90% same period.  Waiting on the disco, hope it is not a copy and paste from the overnight package, would not be the first time though.

 

yeah MHX likes to punt in these setups they should just go WSW for 6-10" and call it a day but they wont.....

 

Also snow starting Tues by 4pm ending Wed by noon that seems a bit quicker huh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting as there could even be a difference of a coupe inches simply between the RDU airport and say; Knightdale or Garner just east and south of Raleigh. It's sounds that close

Just depends on the setup in Dec 2000 we had 8-10" here and 45 miles west they has 1-2" and RDU had zip, during the Crusher they had 18-20" 60 miles west of here but we only got 6".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The biggest thing I notice so far on the 18z NAM is that the heights are a little higher out ahead of the system.  This is probably just as important as anything else in determining how far north the precip gets.  

 

Yep. It's running painfully slow though today. Hopefully there aren't ingest issues. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok new and excited folks. All of your one liners that are not discussing the details of this storm need to go in the banter thread (or your twitter page). We don't need to know what your local forecast calls for or whether you are happy or sad about it. Thanks for helping to keep this thread clean and clutter free!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This alert was generated by the National Weather Service
EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)
from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.
NOUS42 KWNO 262029
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
2027Z SUN JAN 26 2014


NCEP IS SEEING A RECURRENCE OF SYSTEM ISSUES SEEN IN THE 12Z
CYCLE...THE 19Z RAP WAS DELAYED 25 MINUTES AND THE 18Z NAM IS
CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 15 MINUTES BEHIND...ANALYSTS ARE WORKING
ON THE SYSTEM...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok new and excited folks. All of your one liners that are not discussing the details of this storm need to go in the banter thread (or your twitter page). We don't need to know what your local forecast calls for or whether you are happy or sad about it. Thanks for helping to keep this thread clean and clutter free!

This. Warnings with timeouts are now being issued. You will be suspended. Period. 

 

Now....back to your regular programming  ;)  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This alert was generated by the National Weather Service

EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)

from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.

NOUS42 KWNO 262029

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

2027Z SUN JAN 26 2014

NCEP IS SEEING A RECURRENCE OF SYSTEM ISSUES SEEN IN THE 12Z

CYCLE...THE 19Z RAP WAS DELAYED 25 MINUTES AND THE 18Z NAM IS

CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 15 MINUTES BEHIND...ANALYSTS ARE WORKING

ON THE SYSTEM...

 

I really wonder if it's like a network issue or a data issue. If it's a data issue then 00z will probably look a lot different for better or worse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The biggest thing I notice so far on the 18z NAM is that the heights are a little higher out ahead of the system.  This is probably just as important as anything else in determining how far north the precip gets.  

Agree.  It looks like the models are coming more into agreement that the northern stream wave isn't going to dig well to the southwest, but if the flow along the east coast can back to the SW a little more, that would aid in getting the precip shield a bit farther to the northwest.  I suppose the faster the arctic shortwaves tracking through the Great Lakes clear to the northeast, the more the east coast winds will try to back to the SW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SREF has really been holding with the bullishness on points west.  Wonder if it's seeing the cold as slightly less intense and thus, less suppressing...

I agree, Atlanta was forecasting 12 or so Monday night and now its 22. My gut tells me this is not in stone even now and some people will have egg on their face.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SREF has really been holding with the bullishness on points west. Wonder if it's seeing the cold as slightly less intense and thus, less suppressing...

The 15z has significantly backed off precip in the far west. I believe that a few of the members were phasing the energy allowing for massive amounts of precip. These outliers really skewed the mean too high. If you look at the SREF plume charts you can really see the spread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SREF has really been holding with the bullishness on points west.  Wonder if it's seeing the cold as slightly less intense and thus, less suppressing...

 

The SREF shifted further east on the most recent run, this looks like primarily an I-95 to coastal storm for the Carolinas. I think west of Raleigh will see a sharp cutoff judging by current models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
232 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...

.ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA ON
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTING WITH THE ADVANCING
FRONT WILL HELP SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO COMPUTER MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE STILL IS A LARGE DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH SNOW AND SLEET WILL
ACCUMULATE...AND WHERE THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE. PLEASE
STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND
MORE SPECIFICS CAN BE ADDRESSED.

ALZ028-029-033-035>050-270445-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.140128T1500Z-140129T1200Z/
CLAY-RANDOLPH-PERRY-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-
DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-
RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...MARION...CLANTON...
ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...VALLEY...LANETT...DEMOPOLIS...
LINDEN...SELMA...PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...
WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...
AUBURN...OPELIKA...TROY...EUFAULA
232 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...THE GREATEST SNOW AND SLEET POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
NOON TUESDAY AND 3 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* LOCATION...AT THIS TIME...THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS FROM ROUGHLY US-80 AND
INTERSTATE 85 SOUTHWARD.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF A
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great discussion by the CHS guys.  Here's a snipet for the main crux of the event.

 

TUESDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS

THE PEAK OF THE WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE

FOUND OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS IN A USUALLY

CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATION FOR WINTER STORMS. THE CYCLONIC

NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW ITSELF WILL PROVIDE A NEARLY

CONTINUOUSLY FEED OF COLD/DRY AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH

IS NEEDED FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

ALOFT...A POWERFUL UPPER JET APPROACHING 150 KT WILL STRETCH FROM

THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH THE AREA POSITIONED IN

THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE RESULTING JET FORCING WITH

IMPRESSIVE 700MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL

BLOSSOM AND BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT. VARYING THERMAL

PROFILES RESULTING FROM A NUMBER OF DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES

POINT TO A HIGHLY COMPLICATED P-TYPE FORECAST...WHICH WILL HAVE SOME

INFLUENCE ON SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IT APPEARS ATTM THERE WILL BE

ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING AND HEAVY ENOUGH PRECIPITATION RATES TO

SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE

INTERIOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE TRANSITION LINE TO ALL SNOW

SLOWLY WORKING EAST TO THE COAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AS LOW

PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM

FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AT THE COAST SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE INCREASED

RISK FOR DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 1/4 INCH WITH ABOUT

1-2 INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE FARTHER INLAND...A QUICKER TRANSITION TO

SNOW AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES COULD SUPPORT 3-4 INCHES ON TOP

OF DANGEROUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. SOME MESOSCALE

ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN THE GFS COULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH

SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA WITH ICE AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO

1 INCH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...SOME

POTENTIALLY LASTING FOR DAYS...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED

FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE INCREASED

TO 80 PERCENT AREA WIDE WITH LOWS IN THE THE MID-UPPER 20S...EXCEPT

LOWER 20S WELL INLAND. NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS

WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILLS OF 10-15 DEGREES...BUT WILL ALSO INCREASE

THE RISK FOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWERLINES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN

THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

WINTER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA MONDAY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree -- somewhat of a gutsy call to go with WSW a full 48 hours from impact but, as they rightly argue, potential impact is dramatic enough to warrant the decision.

 

Great discussion by the CHS guys.  Here's a snipet for the main crux of the event.
 
TUESDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE PEAK OF THE WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
FOUND OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS IN A USUALLY
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATION FOR WINTER STORMS. THE CYCLONIC
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW ITSELF WILL PROVIDE A NEARLY
CONTINUOUSLY FEED OF COLD/DRY AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
IS NEEDED FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
ALOFT...A POWERFUL UPPER JET APPROACHING 150 KT WILL STRETCH FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH THE AREA POSITIONED IN
THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE RESULTING JET FORCING WITH
IMPRESSIVE 700MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BLOSSOM AND BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT. VARYING THERMAL
PROFILES RESULTING FROM A NUMBER OF DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES
POINT TO A HIGHLY COMPLICATED P-TYPE FORECAST...WHICH WILL HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IT APPEARS ATTM THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING AND HEAVY ENOUGH PRECIPITATION RATES TO
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE TRANSITION LINE TO ALL SNOW
SLOWLY WORKING EAST TO THE COAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AT THE COAST SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE INCREASED
RISK FOR DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 1/4 INCH WITH ABOUT
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE FARTHER INLAND...A QUICKER TRANSITION TO
SNOW AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES COULD SUPPORT 3-4 INCHES ON TOP
OF DANGEROUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH. SOME MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN THE GFS COULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA WITH ICE AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO
1 INCH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...SOME
POTENTIALLY LASTING FOR DAYS...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE INCREASED
TO 80 PERCENT AREA WIDE WITH LOWS IN THE THE MID-UPPER 20S...EXCEPT
LOWER 20S WELL INLAND. NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILLS OF 10-15 DEGREES...BUT WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE RISK FOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWERLINES. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN
THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.
WINTER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA MONDAY.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WHILE FARTHER INLAND...A QUICKER TRANSITION TO

SNOW AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES COULD SUPPORT 3-4 INCHES ON TOP

OF DANGEROUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH.

 

To say this would be very bad for the low country is a massive understatement.  1/2 to 1" of ice raises hell in the mountains where wind and frequent snow and ice events cause an ongoing pruning effect.  If this comes to pass the power trucks will be rolling in from all over the east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...