packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If it can push that vort 50 miles east a lot of folks will be in business. Still another step in the right direction. Thats the difference between it sharpening up the trough and really getting precip inland, but good news is it looks very promising for people east of 95 to see a really great winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Northern stream dominant. Euro much drier @ H7 than GFS across the SE. I'm not too worried about comparing it to the GFS right now. The fact is it trended towards what the NAM and the GFS show and it started at 00z. If it moves even further tonight than lookout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Over a foot of snow along the immediate SE North Carolina coastline. A dusting to Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Over a foot of snow along the immediate SE North Carolina coastline. A dusting to Raleigh. aka a kick in the balls to raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 temps look colder than the gfs/nam, hoping that means snow to the coast and minimal mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Is it the Euro model bias showing or the correct solution? If you watch it, it does exactly what you quoted. Perhaps it's right though. Really anything is on the table but given the trend I doubt it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraseltonGAWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 IIRC, didn't Atlanta have an overrunning event during Jan 2011 because Atlanta got hit with a very thin, very heavy band of snow that just randomly developed over it from West to East. I'd say rates were 2-3 inches maybe for a good hour or so. Jan 2011 was definitely an overrunning event, but it was hardly a thin band. It was a major, 12 hour snow that socked all of North Georgia with 6-8", especially north of the city. There were some heavy bands that dropped 2" per hour that moved over the north half of Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Quick question. What does the NWS use for WS watch and WS warning criteria? What are their timelines for placing those generally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think it varies by the local NWS sites in terms of lead time and criteria, but here is Birminghams for reference. · Winter Weather Watch (WSW) A "Winter Storm Watch" will be issued when conditions are favorable for hazardous winter weather conditions to develop. Unlike a Tornado Watch or a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Winter Storm Watches are issued by the local office. Generally, this type of watch is issued for weather conditions that could occur 12 to 48 hours in the future. Information in the watch will include the affected area, the weather threat involved, potential precipitation amounts, explanation of what a watch is, the uncertainty involved, precautions recommended, and the storm's potential impact. NWS Birmingham issues a Winter Storm Watch when one or more of the following is possible (50% or greater confidence) during the next 12 to 48 hours: Snowfall of greater than 2 inches in 12 hours Accumulation of freezing rain (ice) greater than 1/4". Accumulation of sleet (ice pellets) 1" or greater. · Winter Weather Warning (WSW) A "Winter Storm Warning" is issued when a combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring, is imminent, or is expected. Winter Storm Warnings are issued when one or more of the following is expected: Heavy snow and blowing snow (near blizzard conditions) Snow and Ice Heavy snow (snowfall amounts greater than 2 inches in a 12 hour period Sleet accumulations of 1 inch or greater Sleet and Ice Snow, Sleet and Ice Quick question. What does the NWS use for WS watch and WS warning criteria? What are their timelines for placing those generally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think this may end up a colder version of Dec 2000, I know different setup, but snow probabilities look the same...tough to watch for RDU folks that were here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This is a tough forecast for broadcasters and NWS to make, especially those between beaches and I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikepie Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Sorry posted wrong...usually WSW 36 hours out....down in middle Georgia I think about an inch of snow, tenth inch of ice would prompt one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 ILM per Euro is over 1" QPF, all snow, probably 12" of snow. MYR is 6-10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Big question on the SREF now. Does it stay bullish and lead the way or will fall back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hoping the Euro's tendency for the winter up north is now occurring for you guys, it's been consistently too far East and dry all winter with everything up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 looking the CMC ENS Mean it says that the CMC was on crack today. Looks much better for the SE. Actually looks similar to the 12z run of the Euro as far as on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hoping the Euro's tendency for the winter up north is now occurring for you guys, it's been consistently too far East and dry all winter with everything up this way Thanks. Also thanks for stopping in and giving your insight. It has been much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hoping the Euro's tendency for the winter up north is now occurring for you guys, it's been consistently too far East and dry all winter with everything up this way From your keyboard to the Almighty's snow-blower! Have the higher numbers than expected been as a result of under-estimating QPF, or that the storms were colder, so high totals per volume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 looking the CMC ENS Mean it says that the CMC was on crack today. Looks much better for the SE. Actually looks similar to the 12z run of the Euro as far as on the surface. The 12z CMC precip field matches up fairly well with 12z Euro, at least for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/coldthreats-for-snow-next-week/2430839568001 Good video from Bernie Rayno at accu weather, says snow fall maps will come later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm not a big fan of the nam-hires but just something else to look at and just for fun But notice how much does not reach the ground. It's an "epic" virga storm. nam has been hinting at this for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 KFLO looks to get 9" from what I can see back down to Augusta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Quick question. What does the NWS use for WS watch and WS warning criteria? What are their timelines for placing those generally? Here's Atlanta's: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spotter_criteria.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 From your keyboard to the Almighty's snow-blower! Have the higher numbers than expected been as a result of under-estimating QPF, or that the storms were colder, so high totals per volume? It's been underestimating QPF until about 24-36 hours out and it's been too south and east beyond that period overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm just now catching up on 8 pages worth of discussion since I left the house this morning around 9 AM. I have one simple request: Could those of you that post maps/images/etc. please provide discussion or an explanation with it? An image alone is not very helpful if you have to hunt through all the fine print to figure out what it is your looking at. Which model is it? Which model run is it? Which hour of the forecast is it? Are we looking at total precip or 12-hour precip? I know everyone is in a hurry to post the next greatest image before someone else can beat you to it, but the descriptions are what make the posts worthwhile. Please take the time to at least explain what it is we're looking at, even if you don't want to add your own analysis to it. Thank you. And, thanks to all those who have faithfully reported the ups and downs of this morning's model runs. It appears that KHKY will once again be on the outside looking in, but there are still roughly 60+ hours worth of changes that could occur. So, my interest remains piqued. On to the later runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Big question on the SREF now. Does it stay bullish and lead the way or will fall back? That is the million dollar question. Not only the SREF but will such trends continue with 18z and 0z runs too. It would really be dissapointing if the euro is right about hanging the low over the baja for nearly a week without much interaction in the NS to end up a widespread rain next weekend in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm not a big fan of the nam-hires but just something else to look at and just for fun But notice how much does not reach the ground. It's an "epic" virga storm. nam has been hinting at this for a while... The NAM does not do well with overrunning events. Look at the 700 RH over 90% to get a better idea where precip will be making it to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 9z sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The SREF is still hammering NW Carolinas and Upstate GA. What's up there? i have been trying to figure that out as well. at one point looked like a trough in the area. it looks odd to have it here and nothing around us. other thought is maybe a "reveverse upslople" (yeah i made that up lol) where the higher elevation here is able to wring out some moisture. sometimes a leeside trough develops but i dont think its usually in this set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 For KCHS, 12z GFS Meteostar is insanely warm at 850/925mb level, and would indicate pretty much all ZR with SFC temperatures below 0C pretty much throughout the event. I seriously think the warm nosing is highly overdone in this case, don't know why really, considering both the SLP and SHP are both in classical locations for snow vs ice in this scenario. You can see the southerly winds at 850mb here (coastal SC). Unfortunately, you don't have the closed 850mb low passing to your south like you did with the Feb 2010 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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