packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Interesting by HPC... SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED LOW REACHING BAJA/MEXICO TUE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS / 00Z CMC BLENDCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHE CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO REACH BAJA/MEXICO ON TUE IS EXPECTED TOTRACK EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE LARGEDIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THIS BETWEEN THE LATEST MODELS AND INTHE ENSEMBLES. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUCHAS IN THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN BUT THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAST. OBSERVEDMODEL TRENDS TO BE FASTER ARE LEANING THE PREFERENCE AWAY FROM THESLOWER IDEA...BUT AGAIN..FEEL THE NAM AND EVEN 12Z GFS ARE TOOPROGRESSIVE HERE. BLENDING THE 12Z GFS WITH THE SLOWER 00Z CMCAPPEARS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS MEXICO.BROAD SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEYPOTENTIAL ICE STORM FOR THE GULF COAST REGION~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS / 00Z CMC BLENDCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING A BROADSHORTWAVE...EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THECENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUE INTOWED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR ICE STORM ALONG THE GULFCOAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z NAM IS ONE EXTREME OF THESPREAD...AS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST TO DIG THE TROUGH SOUTHRESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SN/PL/FZRA FROM THE GULF COAST TO THESOUTHEASTERN U.S. COASTLINE. THE 00Z UKMET IS THE OTHER EXTREMEWITH A FLATTER/QUICKER UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSION WHICH VERY LITTLEWINTER PRECIP FOR THE SOUTH.TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI HEIGHT PLOTS SUPPORT A SOLUTIONIN THE MIDDLE WITH THE GFS TRENDING TOWARD THIS MIDDLECONSENSUS...ALONG WITH VERY SLOW SHIFTS TOWARD THIS IDEA FROM THEECMWF/UKMET AS WELL. THE 00Z CMC HAS A SIMILAR IDEA OF THE 12ZGFS...BUT A BIT LESS SHARP WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVESACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED. FOR NOW...A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS /00Z CMC IS PREFERRED WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGERTHAN AVERAGE SPREAD FOR A DAY 2/3 SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 IIRC, didn't Atlanta have an overrunning event during Jan 2011 because Atlanta got hit with a very thin, very heavy band of snow that just randomly developed over it from West to East. I'd say rates were 2-3 inches maybe for a good hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Interesting by HPC... SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED LOW REACHING BAJA/MEXICO TUE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS / 00Z CMC BLEND CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE THE CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO REACH BAJA/MEXICO ON TUE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THIS BETWEEN THE LATEST MODELS AND IN THE ENSEMBLES. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...SUCH AS IN THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN BUT THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAST. OBSERVED MODEL TRENDS TO BE FASTER ARE LEANING THE PREFERENCE AWAY FROM THE SLOWER IDEA...BUT AGAIN..FEEL THE NAM AND EVEN 12Z GFS ARE TOO PROGRESSIVE HERE. BLENDING THE 12Z GFS WITH THE SLOWER 00Z CMC APPEARS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS MEXICO. That southern energy didn't look too bad last night. The problem is if it's slower and that northern energy is more progressive I think it hurts a lot of us north of say Augustus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well, I do not look at the weather for 24 hours and what happens. Pigs fly and the NAM at 84 from yesterday may beat all the other models. Still not convinced that ATL sees much if any snow, but it does now look like a potentially historic event for some pretty far south areas. If the NAM snow accumulation charts verify then this could set or come close to the all time snow for FL (3.5" in 1899) and rival the Feb 9-10 1973 storm for places like Macon and Charleston. If we do barely miss it here and they get pummeled south, good for folks in the path but it would sting to see areas from LA to coastal SC get snow while we go hungry. Oh well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Euro is rolling but only out to hour 6. Might be a tad sharper with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 here comes Dr. No.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Already looks different with that low off the Cali coast. Further east. Energy in the north maybe a hair west of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well, I do not look at the weather for 24 hours and what happens. Pigs fly and the NAM at 84 from yesterday may beat all the other models. Still not convinced that ATL sees much if any snow, but it does now look like a potentially historic event for some pretty far south areas. If the NAM snow accumulation charts verify then this could set or come close to the all time snow for FL (3.5" in 1899) and rival the Feb 9-10 1973 storm for places like Macon and Charleston. If we do barely miss it here and they get pummeled south, good for folks in the path but it would sting to see areas from LA to coastal SC get snow while we go hungry. Oh well.... so a historic storm potentially for Macon and maybe not a flurry 80 miles north in Atlanta ? That could be the most incredible cutoff in snow since that snowstorm in the early 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z individual mems starting to roll in on the model center, 10/11 put down a major snow, rough mean eyeballing it would be along 95 from 26 to 40 for Jackpot, 3 or 4 are a little closer to the coast, east of 95, but still, 10/11 say the game is on for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 12z GEFS members are just sick, only 1 complete whiff, the other 10 have significant snow accumulation from 95 and east, 6 crush RDU and the other 4 are 2-4" for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 @24. Northern energy a tick west. Southern energy a little east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 HR24 the southern energy is out a little SE (quicker) and the northern energy is a hair SW than the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Someone with better eyeballs will have to tell me what's going on @30 with 5h. Looks like more interaction and further east but on the SFC map it looks like there a cutoff west of the Baja. I really dislike the SV 5h maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 HR 36 southern energy a hair SE and northern piece a hair W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 @42 southern energy further SE. Northern energy might be a hair slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 HR48 a little further SE, but a little stronger as well with southern energy...Northern piece is about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 @54 southern energy stronger and more SE of 00z. More moisture in TX breaking out as a result vs. 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 QPF is further inland over TX so far this run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 QPF is further inland over TX so far this run as well I think this is going to be good for you GA folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Euro should be a little better, but that southern energy is stubborn, better than 0z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It cuts off in Baja again, ugghhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 @60 southern energy very strong and further SE. Moisture overal made about a 50 - 100 mile shift north vs. 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 HR 60, euro def. has more qpf inland vs 0z run. The southern vort is a bit further SE, northern piece about the same. Euro def trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 @66 it weakens and shunts just a step SE. Still not quite where we want it but more precip for MBY and coastal areas. NW shield out in GA @66 isn't as good vs the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 If it can push that vort 50 miles east a lot of folks will be in business. Still another step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Overall more precip for everyone who was in the game at 00z. In fact there is up to .10 across much of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Northern stream dominant. Euro much drier @ H7 than GFS across the SE. If it can push that vort 50 miles east a lot of folks will be in business. Still another step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Definitely ticked NW of 0z with precip, has precip into RDU now, 1"+ on the coast, probably 0.5" for PGV. It was close to ejecting the Baja low, but that darn thing is so stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 EURO does have more qpf inland this run, but I think its still struggling with the baja low. IMO thats prolly its bias showing. Now, it did trend better, but not like the gfs and certainly not like the NAM. Also, remember, the euro is the best mid range model, but not usually inside D1-3. Not saying its wrong by being the driest model, but with the GFS being wetter and the nam not budging to much, I would say the euro is the outlier, but did improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 EURO does have more qpf inland this run, but I think its still struggling with the baja low. IMO thats prolly its bias showing. Now, it did trend better, but not like the gfs and certainly not like the NAM. Also, remember, the euro is the best mid range model, but not usually inside D1-3. Not saying its wrong by being the driest model, but with the GFS being wetter and the nam not budging to much, I would say the euro is the outlier, but did improve. Yep I agree. That low should move at least a little more east. It kind of just gets stuck. Devil will be in the details tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.