dg12x Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:33 PM, Southern Snow said: looking great for the coastal areas at 60...great run considering the new data ingested, lets see how accums are. It's plain rain in CHS through hr 60 with just less than 0.5 qpf. Verbatim, the sfc hits 0C at hr 60 so frz precip from then on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 @63 the NAM goes BOOM for almost everyone in GA. Anyone south of ATL though may be on that ice line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:34 PM, Wow said: Good but the polar vort is trending NW. That needs to fall into the southern wave to pull the prcip shield north. ironically the flow is back to the south a bit more over the southeast through hours 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:34 PM, Wow said: Good but the polar vort is trending NW. That needs to fall into the southern wave to pull the prcip shield north. Still not quite where we want it but it's getting very close @63-66 .10 gets right at CLT's backdoor. last few runs had it nowhere close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This run is a lot wetter than the 06z for the se so far through 60 12z run 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks better to me, was closer to something big, need more stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 66 precip shield is ATL,GSP,RDU south and east. Def north with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 66hrs is close to a go for auto sequence start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 NOTE: This run coming in much warmer in the Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:36 PM, burgertime said: @63 the NAM goes BOOM for almost everyone in GA. Anyone south of ATL though may be on that ice line. I'm about 100 miles S of ATL. I hope ice means sleet instead of ZR. Would love to keep the power on. Yesterday, we appeared to be solidly in the snow zone. I'll wait until someone has soundings that can clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 nam accums look outrageous for the coastal plain. 5-10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:41 PM, beanskip said: NOTE: This run coming in much warmer in the Gulf Coast. Yep anyone south of ATL is gonna sweat on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well... The NAM sure gives Columbus a ton of snow! Starts late Tuesday and lasts through at least 2 AM Wednesday, probably longer. The Florida panhandle is also getting in on nice snow action after they see ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like the NAM lays the hammer down my way. Might be some sleet/freezing rain/snow at beginning, but should be mostly snow from CSG to MCN to AGS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:42 PM, Southern Snow said: nam accums look outrageous for the coastal plain. 5-10"+ Sadly CHS is all rain on this run. That snow line is about 50 miles west of the coast. This run came in very warm for you guys. I know NAM Surface maps are showing a ton of frozen precip but the regular SFC map looks too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:41 PM, beanskip said: NOTE: This run coming in much warmer in the Gulf Coast. Yup... and the more this comes north the more WAA aloft will take place too. That is if it keeps trending north over the next few model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:42 PM, burgertime said: Yep anyone south of ATL is gonna sweat on this run. 0c 850mb is from columbus to augusta at it's most northern. 850s are -6c in atlanta at that time so atlanta is pretty safe so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:42 PM, burgertime said: Yep anyone south of ATL is gonna sweat on this run. And anyone north of 285 is bone dry . Really sharp gradient across the city itself - .01" QPF on the north side of 285, 0.1"+ on the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:41 PM, beanskip said: NOTE: This run coming in much warmer in the Gulf Coast. um..its not really that much warmer at all...by Tues aft/eve the 2m 0c temp is from TLH to MCN and then its almost to I-10 after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm hoping that most everyone gets in on the snow... with the euro being so consistent the last couple days its hard to think such a west trend will occure with out any phasing.. but you never know its mother nature after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:43 PM, burgertime said: Sadly CHS is all rain on this run. That snow line is about 50 miles west of the coast. This run came in very warm for you guys. I know NAM Surface maps are showing a ton of frozen precip but the regular SFC map looks too warm. We must be looking at different maps because cod shows it subfreezing in charleston. In fact i don't see much warming anywhere, at least on land vs the 06z run on cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:42 PM, Southern Snow said: nam accums look outrageous for the coastal plain. 5-10"+ My guess based on the H5 look at 84hrs is it would develop a slp off GA/SC similar to what the GFS is hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The coasts look fine to me as far as frozen goes. Yes the 850's were a bit over 0c, but they are def. cold enough at the SFC. Might be a sleet/freezing rain fest over southern bama/southern ga and into I-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:47 PM, Lookout said: We must be looking at different maps because cod shows it subfreezing in charleston. In fact i don't see much warming anywhere, at least on land vs the 06z run on cod. You are correct. After about a half inch of rain thru hr 60, CHS goes below frz at 2 meters/sfc for the duration of the event when nearly 2" more QPF falls. Away from the immediate coastline, this could be a major ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The trends are better but no blockbuster bomb. Hour 78 moisture is in retreat and moving off the coast for ATL,GSP,RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 2.5 inch liquid in southeast ga..****** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What NAM are yall looking at? Looks about the same as the other runs temperature wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I don't buy such a sharp cutoff. If we are dealing with a storm strong enough to drop that kind of liquii don't see how more doesn't get thrown north. Maybe I'm clouded by the fact I'm so close to something good yet so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 On 1/26/2014 at 2:46 PM, deltadog03 said: um..its not really that much warmer at all...by Tues aft/eve the 2m 0c temp is from TLH to MCN and then its almost to I-10 after that... On 1/26/2014 at 2:47 PM, Lookout said: We must be looking at different maps because cod shows it subfreezing in charleston. In fact i don't see much warming anywhere, at least on land vs the 06z run on cod. Very strange. SV maps are showing that 850 line well west of CHS. Looking at the region map 2m line does appear to be good but thickness and 850's are not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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