burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Where does it go from here? Trends from overnight say this will be a big dog for the coast but can the precip make it more W and NW of there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Probabilities up to 50% here in Charleston SC! Things could get pretty nasty here along the coastal plain if there's significant ice. I can deal with the snow but not liking the idea of ice too. Looks like I may get a work "snow day" Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 To continue my thoughts from the other thread: The trends look good for the south and east areas of the metro area. We need a 30 mile shift to get into quarter inch territory and an 80 mile shift for half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 As tarheelwx just stated the 6z GFS did trend way west. I'm very interested to see if 12z keeps this trend. If the 6z GFS is correct we would not need much of a west trend to get many people in significant accumulations (> 2"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 To continue my thoughts from the other thread: The trends look good for the south and east areas of the metro area. We need a 30 mile shift to get into quarter inch territory and an 80 mile shift for half an inch. My guess is there is a very good chance that happens given the GFS last few runs. Euro should really come on board today as well. NAM will be rolling shortly so I'm excited to see if it keeps up with the northern energy digging more and that southern vort staying in tact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The trends does look good will be visiting family in Florence from Monday to Wednesday, was already planned and that area looks like it may be a good spot. Now I have to worry about if Im gonna get stuck and if im able to get back to Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 My guess is there is a very good chance that happens given the GFS last few runs. Euro should really come on board today as well. NAM will be rolling shortly so I'm excited to see if it keeps up with the northern energy digging more and that southern vort staying in tact. I think climatology alone would suggest that shift but of course, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z models will all have that new info in them correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Is it me but the SREF is holding its ground with a slight uptick in moisture? Plumes been showing an average of 1" here with some members showing 5-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It damn well better shift for us! If my brothers in south Georgia get hammered, I'm just going to have to get hammered myself! Holding on to westward trends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 My guess is there is a very good chance that happens given the GFS last few runs. Euro should really come on board today as well. NAM will be rolling shortly so I'm excited to see if it keeps up with the northern energy digging more and that southern vort staying in tact. On the ind members I am amazed at how many beasts there are, it's either feast or famine. Let's hope the Euro and the rest follow the GFS today :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z models will all have that new info in them correct? Unsure if the 12Z suite will have sampled the areas in question. Regardless, that does not always mean a big shift in the model output---or a favorable one for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Really good westward shift with the precip shield from 0 to 6z with the GFS and NAM, as was mentioned. I'm kinda surprised to see that big of a jump. One more jump like that would be a major hit for a whole lot of the area. We're go for Storm Mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Is it me but the SREF is holding its ground with a slight uptick in moisture? Plumes been showing an average of 1" here with some members showing 5-10" Latest 9z run def. is wetter for interior sections. It brings the .25 line just west of CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think climatology alone would suggest that shift but of course, time will tell. I am right at the sharpest part of the gradient. gfs gives me between 0.10 to 0.25. N. 30 miles northwest is almost nothing, while 30 miles southeast there could be 0.50 to 0.75. Nam is even sharper (and i'm right on the edge of accumulation. And that's the case all along the back edge. Literally the smallest of shifts either way will make or break it. . And that really goes for all of us right on the line from ga to nc. There will be some very heart broken folks no matter where it sets up while others are going to be jumping for joy just a few miles away. For those on the back edge, the good news is if we see a shift northwest comparable to what the 0z and 06z did, we/us will be in business. edit to say 09z sref looks like between 0.25 to 0.50 here. Ugh I am so nervous. I haven't been this nervous in a long time. I feel like I'm 8 years old lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Really good westward shift with the precip shield from 0 to 6z with the GFS and NAM, as was mentioned. I'm kinda surprised to see that big of a jump. One more jump like that would be a major hit for a whole lot of the area. We're go for Storm Mode. It's closing in, I'm down to just needing 150 mile shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Man, the 24 hour precip on the 9z sref looks really juicy and well inland. Massive strip of .5" qpf centered around I-95 maybe. Can't post from my phone, but I'm sure someone else will post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I am right at the sharpest part of the gradient. gfs gives me between 0.10 to 0.25. N. 30 miles northwest is almost nothing, while 30 miles southeast there could be 0.50 to 0.75. Nam is even sharper (and i'm right on the edge of accumulation. And that's the case all along the back edge. Literally the smallest of shifts either way will make or break it. . And that really goes for all of us right on the line from ga to nc. There will be some very heart broken folks no matter where it sets up while others are going to be jumping for joy just a few miles away. For those on the back edge, the good news is if we see a shift northwest comparable to what the 0z and 06z did, we/us will be in business. Ugh I am so nervous. I haven't been this nervous in a long time. I feel like I'm 8 years old lol You will love the SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The great play by play continues! Thanks to the mets and non-mets who give the rest of us insight as to what all the squiggly lines really mean. Your analysis is invaluable! It's rare for me to be sitting in a potentially good spot to see some accumulating snow. All of the models currently give me 1-3", with the higher totals to my south and east. We'll see if a slight westward trend might yield some higher amounts for central Ga. Looking forward to Allen's discussion after lunch. He referenced a mix of Dec. '89 and Feb '73. I'm not sure what this area received in '89, but '73 dropped 15". I would be happy with just half of that! I'm also looking forward to Delta's thoughts since I'm in his forecast area. Let''s hope the trends continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 You will love the SREF mean. Sure do..quite a bit wetter than earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Did I just see half an inch for CLT on the SREF mean?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 BOOM! Big time changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ugh I am so nervous. I haven't been this nervous in a long time. I feel like I'm 8 years old lolHaha. I'm right there with you. I'm concerned about the temperature here. I don't want 33 and rain. I'll take what the Euro, CMC and NAM have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Did I just see half an inch for CLT on the SREF mean?! Looks like a .25 from the map above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z models will all have that new info in them correct? This alert was generated by the National Weather Service EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server. NOUS42 KWNO 261323 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1321Z SUN JAN 26 2014 THE 12Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH 13 ALASKAN...30 CANADIAN...71 CONUS...9 MEXICAN AND 8 CARIBBEAN RAOB REPORTS AVBL FOR INGEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This alert was generated by the National Weather Service EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server. NOUS42 KWNO 261323 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1321Z SUN JAN 26 2014 THE 12Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH 13 ALASKAN...30 CANADIAN...71 CONUS...9 MEXICAN AND 8 CARIBBEAN RAOB REPORTS AVBL FOR INGEST. Thanks Dacula as usual!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 compare the 09z with the 03z. That's a huge shift and a lot wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It's not just a few skewing it either. quite a few of the members shifted west and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Out to 12 not sure I like the NAM. Looks further east with that trough and there is no "tail" in Canada which creates our energy. Hopefully it will show up in the next couple of frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Sure do..quite a bit wetter than earlier runs. I'm always a little confused about the black outlined areas .1, .25, .5 etc.. On the SREF compared with the colored areas for the same values. For example, RDU is in the .25 lined region but in the .5 colored region. I think it has something to do with the spread of the ensembles, but I'm not sure. Can someone clarify for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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