CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The delete button may become quite active if people cannot post good meteorology in the discussion threads. If people want to whine about it, then I would advise them to use the banter thread. People don't donate to this site to read grown men acting like little children in a met discussion thread because a 204 hour prog shifted 200 miles. We're supposed to be more sophisticated than accuwx boards. It's gonna change every run. Even though we've mentioned this until we are blue in the face...it's getting lost in the shuffle. If people just loop a North Anerica 500mb plot, you can see why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Basically this far out is just follow the trends, The Euro ensembles are not smoking what the op runs have been on these next 2 systems anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Basically this far out is just follow the trends, The Euro ensembles are not smoking what the op runs have been on these next 2 systems anywaysEns look really good for the main show, the meh Saturday system looks OK too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm still of the scientific belief Saturday is snow to ice . Weak system cutting out south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ens look really good for the main show, the meh Saturday system looks OK too. Yeah, I really like the way its hitting the 5-7 period, Quite bullish on the qpf to boot this far out for a smoothed mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm still of the scientific belief Saturday is snow to ice . Weak system cutting out south any cold air though? Seems that this fresh mass coming in now gets fairly stale by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh Kevin !!!! https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/427890966385537024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wonder if indeed the models are retrograding things too much. Just playing around with differences in the 12z vs 00z ensembles..it does push everything a little farther south next week. In fact, it almost has a stronger southwest US trough, but we now have a big ULL near the Canadian Maritimes that acts as our friend to keep the low south. This is what I mean by having so many players and how the models will change every run to some extent. If I can say something as well...please don't take model discussion as the actual final outcome of the pattern or solution. If you want our opinion, ask. I feel like some people are making assumptions based on how a met describes a model solution. It makes it extremely uncomfortable talking about a non-favorable solution since the weenie banter gets out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That is a good way to put it Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wonder if indeed the models are retrograding things too much. Just playing around with differences in the 12z vs 00z ensembles..it does push everything a little farther south next week. In fact, it almost has a stronger southwest US trough, but we now have a big ULL near the Canadian Maritimes that acts as our friend to keep the low south. This is what I mean by having so many players and how the models will change every run to some extent. If I can say something as well...please don't take model discussion as the actual final outcome of the pattern or solution. If you want our opinion, ask. I feel like some people are making assumptions based on how a met describes a model solution. It makes it extremely uncomfortable talking about a non-favorable solution since the weenie banter gets out of control. Yeah and it makes us as weenies uncomfortable as well, so can only imagine how you feel if we feel it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 most of you are going to have to wait til the 10th for things to get interesting if the euro ens mean is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh Kevin !!!! https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/427890966385537024 Hype sells. Pretty pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I thought the ensemble mean looked decent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I thought the ensemble mean looked decent here.That poster lives in central Hersey, so down there it is tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wonder if indeed the models are retrograding things too much. Just playing around with differences in the 12z vs 00z ensembles..it does push everything a little farther south next week. In fact, it almost has a stronger southwest US trough, but we now have a big ULL near the Canadian Maritimes that acts as our friend to keep the low south. This is what I mean by having so many players and how the models will change every run to some extent. If I can say something as well...please don't take model discussion as the actual final outcome of the pattern or solution. If you want our opinion, ask. I feel like some people are making assumptions based on how a met describes a model solution. It makes it extremely uncomfortable talking about a non-favorable solution since the weenie banter gets out of control. I noticed the 12z Euro has a weaker east Asian jet at day 10 than the 12z GFS. I wonder if this is because the GFS (and GEFS) is forecasting more intense MJO convection. I've only seen the filtered OLR forecasts for the GEFS (and not the Euro or eps) which indicate persistant convection east of the maritime continent. While the RMM phase space is not great in isolating the MJO from-equatorially trapped waves, the Euro forecast does show a weaker amplitude than the GFS over the next 2 weeks. The weaker east Asian jet in the Euro forecast allows for a more amplified pattern to develop downstream as the block in the Alaska region is more cut-off from the strong flow. The stronger (and more poleward) jet in the GFS keeps the blocking over the extreme North Pacific weaker and the downstream features less amplified. There's certainly a lot going on in this pattern and I'm not entirely certain this explains the model variability, but I guess it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That poster lives in central Hersey, so down there it is tricky I think you mean hearsay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Maybe some ZR threat in the 5th/6th timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Maybe some ZR threat in the 5th/6th timeframe?Possibly Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I thought the ensemble mean looked decent here. I did too. It still could trend north, but based on the ensemble mean, I would say we would have a pretty sig winter storm on 2/4. It's still way too early to figure out where that one will track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah, I really like the way its hitting the 5-7 period, Quite bullish on the qpf to boot this far out for a smoothed mean 18z GFS gets us in the game for over-running light snows...a tick north from 12z. Only 5 days to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I noticed the 12z Euro has a weaker east Asian jet at day 10 than the 12z GFS. I wonder if this is because the GFS (and GEFS) is forecasting more intense MJO convection. I've only seen the filtered OLR forecasts for the GEFS (and not the Euro or eps) which indicate persistant convection east of the maritime continent. While the RMM phase space is not great in isolating the MJO from-equatorially trapped waves, the Euro forecast does show a weaker amplitude than the GFS over the next 2 weeks. The weaker east Asian jet in the Euro forecast allows for a more amplified pattern to develop downstream as the block in the Alaska region is more cut-off from the strong flow. The stronger (and more poleward) jet in the GFS keeps the blocking over the extreme North Pacific weaker and the downstream features less amplified. There's certainly a lot going on in this pattern and I'm not entirely certain this explains the model variability, but I guess it's something to watch. That's a good observation. It certainly could be part of the issue. One thing I have noticed is the dynamical models are too weak with the MJO and are falsely forcing it into the COD. Some of the stat products from Mike Ventrice and Paul Roundy have worked fairly well and are showing continuing forcing near and east of 135E. These products break it down into the components of the MJO and the velocity potential at 200mb seems to be a better approx to the MJO since it's not prone to all the noise and what not that goes on in the lower levels. The EC and GEFS at day 10 have differences perhaps owing to what you alluded. The EC ensembles are not as widespread with ridging in the arctic and therefore don't have such a suppressed PV like the GEFS have. Canadian is sort of in the middle. I think models are a bit too happy with retrogression...although the idea may be valid for sure. I have noticed the euro op and even the ensembles have been PAC jet happy this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Possibly Saturday I could see that being on the table of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I could see that being on the table of possibilities.Think confluence and crushed and weaker wave and it's snow to ice which is nice and we'll roll the dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Weeklies looked good. Even weak ridging into Davis Straits from the north week 3. Week 4 has a weird pattern with all of Canada and nrn tier cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Kind of a weenie GFS op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Kind of a weenie GFS op run. Yeah 12z was a big weenie run, too. GFS has been throwing it out lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro seems dethroned w a -EPO , maybe its me but the model seems like its ....ridin the short bus on day 4-5 threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Think confluence and crushed and weaker wave and it's snow to ice which is nice and we'll roll the dice I pray you are right. We take the GFS and run. Every other model is much warmer. GGEM is very similar to the ECM for Saturday...no wonder Toronto Blizz loves his national model. Luckily the GGEM is such an awful model because it follows up with a very moist system next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 most of you are going to have to wait til the 10th for things to get interesting if the euro ens mean is correct First week of February may be tough we will see. When I made the joke about the Lego movie being the most exciting part..... At the very least the pattern is at least presenting more frequent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Even Saturday may be a net gainer for some. I don't see glaring issues for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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