dryslot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 D8-9 looks great for CNE/NNE. I hate to even be watching it at this point though. That one reminds me of a lot of the 07/08 storms, That would be a decent SWFE snow maker up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The EURO just shifted from toronto to cape cod in one run.. It always does that far out. It will go back to SLK tonight probably..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That weenie ridging is probably why it's not congrats Ottawa on day 8-9 as it tries to keep the confluence to our north. It's at least part of the reason anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 With that high up there just doesn't seem like you're gonna be able to crank up a cutter like that. Everything should weaken coming east . Crushed by the confluence . Could be a snow to ice deal. 00z prob shifts 200 mikes south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That weenie ridging is probably why it's not congrats Ottawa on day 8-9 as it tries to keep the confluence to our north. It's at least part of the reason anyways. This is going to change as we go forward which is why ensembles are going to be the way to go. Even ensembles may change though...it's a volatile pattern with moving parts everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 And I got ripped for mentioning the dicey NAO and possible cutters weeks ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 With that high up there just doesn't seem like you're gonna be able to crank up a cutter like that. Everything should weaken coming east . Crushed by the confluence . Could be a snow to ice deal. 00z prob shifts 200 mikes south We've been through that myth before. If the trough out west is strong enough with a +NAO...torch-tastic it will be. But if the troughing is weaker or somehow we can keep confluence at 500mb to our north, then it is a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 And I got ripped for mentioning the NAO and possible cutters a month ago.. Because there is more to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That one reminds me of a lot of the 07/08 storms, That would be a decent SWFE snow maker up here Exactly what I had in mind this morning. I predicted Dendrite jackpot, and 2-5" of snow n of the pike before rain, with a transitional period of ice and pl outside of rt 495. Tough times s of pike...couple of inches, then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We've been through that myth before. If the trough out west is strong enough with a +NAO...torch-tastic it will be. But if the troughing is weaker or somehow we can keep confluence at 500mb to our north, then it is a colder solution.Thats precisely why I mentioned confluence and that high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Exactly what I had in mind this morning. I predicted Dendrite jackpot, and 2-5" of snow n of the pike before rain, with a transitional period of ice and pl outside of rt 495. Tough times s of pike...couple of inches, then rain. The way people just randomly throw years around on here and then convince themselves of the final outcomes by posting confidently on it is funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 And I got ripped for mentioning the dicey NAO and possible cutters weeks ago.. It verified already? Dam your good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No thanks to the ridging over Greenland. That does absolutely nothing here to get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 seems to me the cutter esque trends on the models is becoming more and more likely, where theres smoke theres usually fire. this sb threat hasnt looked good for days and whos to say after the first couple messy events we dont just go cold and dry before the next round of rainers or slushers......and this praying for a mid week miracle, esp in the nyc forum.....good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No thanks to the ridging over Greenland. That does absolutely nothing here to get a storm. But it helps the high sit over your head, it makes US happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No thanks to the ridging over Greenland. That does absolutely nothing here to get a storm. exactly! your pain is our gain. and of course this is the NE board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No thanks to the ridging over Greenland. That does absolutely nothing here to get a storm. We don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 But it helps the high sit over your head, it makes US happier.Ok but me nasomuch. That already happened on 1/2-3rd storm. Little stupid block over Baffin island and I get fringed while buffalo got 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ok but me nasomuch. That already happened on 1/2-3rd storm. Little stupid block over Baffin island and I get fringed while buffalo got 10".That's what you get for living in a weather hole like Toronto.Edit: move to a LES belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Exactly what I had in mind this morning. I predicted Dendrite jackpot, and 2-5" of snow n of the pike before rain, with a transitional period of ice and pl outside of rt 495. Tough times s of pike...couple of inches, then rain. I read where you mentioned that this am, Just worth watching the trends for now until we start to close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ok but me nasomuch. That already happened on 1/2-3rd storm. Little stupid block over Baffin island and I get fringed while buffalo got 10". Your're on the wrong side of the lake. Do you ever stare out onto it late at night while the other side of the pond is under 6" hr rates and wonder what could have been....?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No thanks to the ridging over Greenland. That does absolutely nothing here to get a storm. I really can't say i feel bad for you, Seeing your posting this out of your region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 lol, I hate these things showing up so far out in time. Everyone will put energy into it for days and it just raises the tension level. Then we'll get into the time frame when some start pleading, "let us have this one and you can have the next one" like it makes any difference at all. We'll hear the same posters talk over and over about the reasons why "storm x" will track in a certain manner, others will repeat the exact opposite, then someone will say "this looks ugly for location z" followed by 3 pages of sh*t-slinging depending on what weenie got offended or his snow taken away...Leon will be mentioned, deep winter and epicosity, I'll freak out if it VT looks good at 72 hours only to see it head south at the end, If it heads north Blizz will go down swinging snow and ice then dryslot with no rain, etc. I think we've seen this show before. Welcome to AMWX. Probably best if these storms just show up at 48 hours out, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I will say I miss the good vibes and feelings for all of Feb that we were all discussing last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I will say I miss the good vibes and feelings for all of Feb that we were all discussing last week. Deep, deep winter. No mild-ups or cutters in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No thanks to the ridging over Greenland. That does absolutely nothing here to get a storm. If i were u id grab the toaster You just missed out in this last pattern (i would assume) and Detroit just SW of you had a record month along with flint,mi . Now perhaps that area stays under gun and you cash in, what was Toronto jan total. Detroit and flint have like 30-35" i thought . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man this site is unreadable. Will as I recall suggested things would change every run. Now euro buries is 2/5 but rains us 2/1. Things will shift around again next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well next week could be pretty interesting. Saturday is a small event, even if it tracks more favorable...so the upside on that thing really isn't worth losing much sleep over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Mas Tequila!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Man this site is unreadable. Will as I recall suggested things would change every run. Now euro buries is 2/5 but rains us 2/1. Things will shift around again next run. The delete button may become quite active if people cannot post good meteorology in the discussion threads. If people want to whine about it, then I would advise them to use the banter thread. People don't donate to this site to read grown men acting like little children in a met discussion thread because a 204 hour prog shifted 200 miles. We're supposed to be more sophisticated than accuwx boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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