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February 2014 Pattern Discussion Thread


free_man

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I don't know if that Meteostar 16 day model is accurate or where they get their info but I really like the layout for a numbie like me that doesn't know anything.  I do know that the 850mb on the 2/4 range was maxing at 3+ on the chart yesterday, way below it now.  Of course, I have absolutely no idea how significant the 850mb temp is but anything above zero anywhere on the chart and I start huffing and hyperventilating and going oh no the sky is falling in ways I don't like.  All I know is too much ice for a fat bike and I would be dead if I tried to ride the road bike outside so forgive me if the fumes from the paint cans have eaten my brain with the 12 hours of riding to nowhere every week down cellar. 

At the top of the output it shows you what model and run.. Like:

post-1816-0-79074300-1390834026_thumb.jp

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The first week of February could be rather interesting though.  While we do lose the strong ridging poking well into Alaska, there may be enough ridging up there to prevent the developing SE ridge from pushing into our region...is that a given?  Certainly not but at this timeframe it's impossible to say which way this will go.  

 

Regardless, even if we go get into a period of ridging and mild weather, the Euro only keeps that in place extremely briefly as it redevelops the ridging well into Alaska.  What's also good is Canada never warms, so the source region remain cold.  

 

The STJ though looks like it could be quite active so we could have a solid storm threat the first week of February.  

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Geezus what the heck is going on in here. Take the GEFS/ECENS and run. A euro op run at 200 hours that cuts and all of a sudden all of Feb is rainers? Has anyone looked at any Ens runs? Wow, there are some here I thought had more knowledge who have made some really strange posts lately. As far as a neg PNA in Feb being a bad thing???? History, 1994 being just one, says different. I guess we toss all Ens, CFS, weeklies and think one op cutter determines a months fate. as long as that PV is over Hudson Bay region and rotating around  as shown on ENS its going to stay cold.

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There's about 4 shortwaves in the flow between D5-D9 that could impact our sensible wx in a fairly large way...so the early advice would be to sit back and watch it unfold for the next 2-3 days on model guidance before getting too married to any solution.

 

 

There's also a pretty strong confluence signal north of us, so even if the sfc low tries to track west, I wouldn't be shocked if we see stubborn cold which can produce ice in the interior and front end thumps for a larger area.

 

We might even still see a smaller event of either snow or liquid on SB weekend....that event is still pretty undecided and its 2-3 days sooner than the D8-9 stuff...so honestly, its foolish to make deterministic posts in a situation that requires probabilistic forecasting.

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Damn, that is impressive for my old stompng grounds on Camp Lejune.

Wow.

4-8", perhaps lollis to 1'.

Highs int he 20s and lows near 10....omfg.

serious bidness down there not like up here, you know even further south is worse, they are not equipped, and the ice storm followed with Arctic air, oh my

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