TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I agree with your thinking down the road, but you also need constant input from them and baby wipes to just swipe your fanny clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Melting down? People are talking about weather. That's what the board is here for. Again it's borderline impossible to even think about discussing a cutter or non-deep winter solution without starting a sh*tshow. It seems like most accept that it could go either way...can't we just discuss the possibilities? Huh? Of course it's ok to talk about cutters to Montreal. We never said it wasn't. It's ok to talk about anything on a forum. Snow , cold, two faced folks , rain, snow etc etc. but there's been several meltdowns already this morning. But to base those on a bogus euro run is premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Geographically wise it has been nothing to write home about. Population wise ( some eastern sections) has been a different story. That's all I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Anyone discounting a certain track at 200+ hours out should be weenie-tagged. They are all on the table. Some are a little more likely than others, but nothing is discounted. I think the further north you are in the 2/4 system, probably the better...is my prelim feeling on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 -PNA in February sucks. Just hope ridging over the arctic is strong enough. NNE will rock in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Anyone discounting a certain track at 200+ hours out should be weenie-tagged. They are all on the table. Some are a little more likely than others, but nothing is discounted. I think the further north you are in the 2/4 system, probably the better...is my prelim feeling on it. Just looking at the Euro now, and you can see why it cuts. Pray those 2 pieces of energy don't phase so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Rev Kev is on it. We toss All kidding aside I wouldn't be stressed about the possibility of a non-winter weather event of some sort for at least the interior for sure and I wouldn't rule out another coastal special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This place is psychotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 06z GFS looked great. Since when do we stress about R/S lines 200 hours out? (And yes, I know we can discuss it, but there have been some doom and gloom posts too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Classic -PNA folks. Monster AK ridge retros and -PNA signal grows. Of course nuances in the flow will determine if we are green or white and these features cannot be determined this far out. Remember when we said be careful what you wish for regarding troughing out west and more storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This place is psychotic.LolOn a serious note, what makes the -PNA so awful for February, do wave length changes put us generally in a worse spot w trough axis to our west? Or are we generally to far south in a gradient patter with -pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 The good news for those keeping score (snowfall tallies, etc.), even if the Euro op is correct and we see more cutters than the U.S. Coast Guard, we'll still likely have front-end overrunning snows accumulate before being quickly washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Classic -PNA folks. Monster AK ridge retros and -PNA signal grows. Of course nuances in the flow will determine if we are green or white and these features cannot be determined this far out. Remember when we said be careful what you wish for regarding troughing out west and more storms? I do, and I'll take it. Sign me up. Its either going to snow, or warm up. Anything is better than another cold, dry oes cj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Huge -pna without confluence to our north is mariano rivera un-retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think dendrite jackpot possible this go round I'd bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 the people claiming meltdowns and panic seem to be those w the biggest emotional responses to those posts themselves Another set of runs tonite will prob bring another set of posts If it rains at least Bob will post more during the run up to storms With that said if models hone in on huge -PNA and +NAO AND a relaxed polar vortex ...bring out the rain gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Huh? Of course it's ok to talk about cutters to Montreal. We never said it wasn't. It's ok to talk about anything on a forum. Snow , cold, two faced folks , rain, snow etc etc. but there's been several meltdowns already this morning. But to base those on a bogus euro run is premature. I see what you did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Agree! Your location will help you, I'm sure another decent storm will effect you If I had to guess, I'd say 2-5", then rain n of the pike, with some transitional ice/pl w of rt 495. Dendrite 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This place is psychotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lol On a serious note, what makes the -PNA so awful for February, do wave length changes put us generally in a worse spot w trough axis to our west? Or are we generally to far south in a gradient patter with -pna It doesn't have to be bad if the ridge is aligned in a certain way and ridging continues near the arctic. Also, how in the world are we able to tell were the rain/snow line is? We can't, which is why the panic posts are silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It doesn't have to be bad if the ridge is aligned in a certain way and ridging continues near the arctic. Also, how in the world are we able to tell were the rain/snow line is? We can't, which is why the panic posts are silly.Ok i just saw ur post that said -PNA in feb sucks and wondered why or if there was something u were seeing w this one or feb in general having oneBesides arctic ridging could the polar vortex position help us or hurt is regardless of arctic ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 the people claiming meltdowns and panic seem to be those w the biggest emotional responses to those posts themselves Another set of runs tonite will prob bring another set of posts If it rains at least Bob will post more during the run up to storms It's the folks who have bought too many shares of stock in winter. Their yearly income and sanity tied directly to winters performance. It spikes, they run streets naked....it dives, they put their clothes back on and tear their eyeballs out in the basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wasn't a slight relaxation in the cold expected in early February (followed by a return to below normal)? At least that's what I've been gathering from reading thoughts in the main forum over the past week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom12309 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't know if that Meteostar 16 day model is accurate or where they get their info but I really like the layout for a numbie like me that doesn't know anything. I do know that the 850mb on the 2/4 range was maxing at 3+ on the chart yesterday, way below it now. Of course, I have absolutely no idea how significant the 850mb temp is but anything above zero anywhere on the chart and I start huffing and hyperventilating and going oh no the sky is falling in ways I don't like. All I know is too much ice for a fat bike and I would be dead if I tried to ride the road bike outside so forgive me if the fumes from the paint cans have eaten my brain with the 12 hours of riding to nowhere every week down cellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Drugs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just b/c it appears the potential pattern configuration for the first part of February isn't similar to what we've experienced thus far doesn't mean the pattern won't deliver at all. If anything the pattern at least looks to remain rather active which is always a positive. Also, just b/c a model is suggesting a cutter now for such a far timeframe doesn't mean anything really. A slight shift in the height field and a complete different scenario could unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ok i just saw ur post that said -PNA in feb sucks and wondered why or if there was something u were seeing w this one or feb in general having one Besides arctic ridging could the polar vortex position help us or hurt is regardless of arctic ridge In general is tries to warm the east coast in Feb so it isn't the best here....probably a wavelength thing. Obviously if the PV retros to western Canada then it would be bad for us, but a highly caution the bridge jumpers to hold tight for a few days. We simply cannot determine 100 mile differences in storm track beyond 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 the people claiming meltdowns and panic seem to be those w the biggest emotional responses to those posts themselves Then if it ends up being ugly, the storm arrives to a bunch of "well you folks got what you wanted...a cutter in early February like you've been talking about for a week"...as if there's no differences between desires and meteorological discussion. Hopefully that's not the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just b/c it appears the potential pattern configuration for the first part of February isn't similar to what we've experienced thus far doesn't mean the pattern won't deliver at all. If anything the pattern at least looks to remain rather active which is always a positive. Also, just b/c a model is suggesting a cutter now for such a far timeframe doesn't mean anything really. A slight shift in the height field and a complete different scenario could unfold. That is why I like it. I'm going to have gone over a month without a snignificant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That is why I like it. I'm going to have gone over a month without a snignificant snowfall. My exact thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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