TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Or it could be something like north of the pike deal...we have no idea yet.I think setup favors north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 After punting January here is to hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm sure things will begin to get dicey in southeast ma and the cape eventually. I still think we are okay for the most part, still a pretty good look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 12z Euro definitely shifted to a bigger hit for NNE with a low track through SNE. It also has shifted the timing later to the 4th. The timing is in better agreement with what the GFS had in earlier runs. However the 18z GFS keeps everything too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 OT but after some awful seasons, Chicago is cashing in. Nearing 50 inches for the season. Also have been far subnormal temperature wise. Just a classic winter. My relatives on my wife's side are happy to be having an old school winter. As a kid, this seemed to be the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 OT but after some awful seasons, Chicago is cashing in. Nearing 50 inches for the season. Also have been far subnormal temperature wise. Just a classic winter. My relatives on my wife's side are happy to be having an old school winter. As a kid, this seemed to be the norm. Is a "new school" winter one filled with warmth in the means mixed in with KU events? While "old school" is sustained cold and nickel and dime events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Is a "new school" winter one filled with warmth in the means mixed in with KU events? While "old school" is sustained cold and nickel and dime events? I dunno, but if the alternative is the winters of the 1950s or 1980s...then I want no part of "old school winters"....but if they are the 1960s/1970s, then sign me up. I know I've told you before when looking back at older winters, but most people do not realize how utterly putrid the late 1940s through mid 1950s were...it was basically a 7-8 year stretch of hell for cold/snow lovers in New England. At least they got paid back in the 20 years following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I dunno, but if the alternative is the winters of the 1950s or 1980s...then I want no part of "old school winters"....but if they are the 1960s/1970s, then sign me up. I know I've told you before when looking back at older winters, but most people do not realize how utterly putrid the late 1940s through mid 1950s were...it was basically a 7-8 year stretch of hell for cold/snow lovers in New England. At least they got paid back in the 20 years following. Yeah, I know BTV had some awful winters in there...I think the 1930s too had a bunch of true skunkers. It must be a demographics thing though, as a lot of the baby boomers (folks born between the years 1946 and 1964, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, per a quick google search) would have hit their more formidable years during the snowy 60s and 70s...and were either not born yet or too young to remember the 1940s and 50s. And when the crappy 80s hit, they were stuck remembering the winters of old before climate change happened in 1982 (totally joking). Maybe if you ask someone's 80 year old grandparents about an "old school" winter they may remember a bunch of crappy winters from when they were in high school or something haha. To be honest, I'd take the 2000s again in a heartbeat...like a 10-20% snowfall surplus, tons of big storms (8 of BTV's top 16 snowfalls occurred in 2000 or later, with records back to 1883), and generally exciting winters aside from a couple clunkers like 01-02, and 11-12. It was the snowiest decade in almost 130 years of snowfall records at BTV, which I think also has made us b*tch more this winter....we have gotten spoiled with 90-130" winters at BTV and 350+ at the summits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Funny Will brought up '87 because I remember a few good storms, and I also remember ORH getting smoked. Yes even in 2nd grade I remember that lol. I think one of the storms had TSSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Talking about past winters....and how it compares to February, its funny. The analog dates have some conflicting snow years: They are riddled with Feb 1989 dates. That was a horrific snow year for all of New England outside of Cape Cod unless Northern Maine did better than I thought...but I'm too lazy to look it up. However, also in the analogs are epic patterns from February 1975 and February 1972. It just goes to show you that there's some luck involved. February 1989 was probably really unlucky...as it wasn't really fundamentally different from the 1975 and 1972 patterns. Yet the two latter patterns produced a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 100 miles shifts are probably all you need. I remember the Feb '89 storm. Was so close to being so much more where I was, but the bust was really bad out by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 100 miles shifts are probably all you need. I remember the Feb '89 storm. Was so close to being so much more where I was, but the bust was really bad out by you. We had about 5 inches from that one I remember, but we were "lucky"..about 10-15 miles NW had a dusting I think. Still, that one stung really bad. Mets were honking 1-2 feet for Boston back to Worcester and Hartford and even down to NYC. Even when it looked like NYC might be in trouble, we were still supposed to get at least 10". I remember seeing pics of Chatham during that storm buried in like 15" and it still snowing heavily. Feb '89 also had another close miss but it was never hyped like that 2/24 storm. Prob a lot of people don;t realize that was a top 10 coldest February on record for the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Funny Scott appears we are backing up the bus. A week or more ago the gfs highlighted this mid to late week period then lost it. It's not going to take much now for a hit in s&e areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I just remember every winter having fairly consistent ORD snow cover and frequent subzero episodes. That has been absent since 2002 or so. This winter brought it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 OT but after some awful seasons, Chicago is cashing in. Nearing 50 inches for the season. Also have been far subnormal temperature wise. Just a classic winter. My relatives on my wife's side are happy to be having an old school winter. As a kid, this seemed to be the norm. Don't feel too bad for Chicago. 2007-08 to 2010-11 featured four consecutive 50"+ seasons. The only time that's happened in Chicago's recorded history. Plus, 2010-11 also had the 3rd biggest snowstorm on record with GHD. Granted, 2011-12 and 2012-13 were relative clunkers, but they've been on quite a run. This season has a chance to turn into something special...if it keeps snowing. Through 7:00 pm tonight, 47.8" of snow for the season. And it should be higher, if not for some questionable measuring in a few events. As for the big dog seasons to chase...here's the top 10 for Chicago. The top 3 are probably unreachable, but who knows... 89.7" in 1978-79 82.3" in 1977-78 77.0" in 1969-70 68.4" in 1966-67 66.4" in 1951-52 64.1" in 1917-18 60.3" in 2007-08 59.5" in 1903-04 and 1964-65 59.3" in 1981-82 58.9" in 1961-62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Chi town gets less snow and their biggest storms are relatively small compared to NE but they hold snowpack better. Interesting back to back run late 70s there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Don't feel too bad for Chicago. 2007-08 to 2010-11 featured four consecutive 50"+ seasons. The only time that's happened in Chicago's recorded history. Plus, 2010-11 also had the 3rd biggest snowstorm on record with GHD. Granted, 2011-12 and 2012-13 were relative clunkers, but they've been on quite a run. This season has a chance to turn into something special...if it keeps snowing. Through 7:00 pm tonight, 47.8" of snow for the season. And it should be higher, if not for some questionable measuring in a few events. As for the big dog seasons to chase...here's the top 10 for Chicago. The top 3 are probably unreachable, but who knows... 89.7" in 1978-79 82.3" in 1977-78 77.0" in 1969-70 68.4" in 1966-67 66.4" in 1951-52 64.1" in 1917-18 60.3" in 2007-08 59.5" in 1903-04 and 1964-65 59.3" in 1981-82 58.9" in 1961-62 I also believe that was the first time Chicago had 4 consecutive winters below the longterm 20th century mean temperature since 1966-1967-1970-1971 did 5 in a row. This year is threatening to be the coldest winter in Chicago since 1978-1979. Beating '81-'82 would be a feat even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I also believe that was the first time Chicago had 4 consecutive winters below the longterm 20th century mean temperature since 1966-1967-1970-1971 did 5 in a row. This year is threatening to be the coldest winter in Chicago since 1978-1979. Beating '81-'82 would be a feat even. Yep. Certainly looks like a cold DJF reminiscent of the late 1970's/early 1980's. A lot of Midwest locales might be able to say that, when all is said and done. Been pretty fun here so far, with the cold and snow. January has been ridiculous. Hope February continues it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We had about 5 inches from that one I remember, but we were "lucky"..about 10-15 miles NW had a dusting I think. Still, that one stung really bad. Mets were honking 1-2 feet for Boston back to Worcester and Hartford and even down to NYC. Even when it looked like NYC might be in trouble, we were still supposed to get at least 10". I remember seeing pics of Chatham during that storm buried in like 15" and it still snowing heavily. Feb '89 also had another close miss but it was never hyped like that 2/24 storm. Prob a lot of people don;t realize that was a top 10 coldest February on record for the CONUS. I will NEVER forget the hype of the 2/24/89 storm. 8-16 inches being thrown everywhere 3 days before and Friday was sunny and pleasant with about 3 inches of snow late Fri/Sat morning in Ashland MA. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looking at 4th through 6th....hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro op with a 50+ Rainer for all of New England 2/4...lol. Ensembles not as bad but one can rightfully presume there are several stinkers among the members as the mean brings the low right overhead in sne though it might be ok for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro op with a 50+ Rainer for all of New England 2/4...lol. Ensembles not as bad but one can rightfully presume there are several stinkers among the members as the mean brings the low right overhead in sne though it might be ok for NNE. Yeah those were ugly runs last night. Man I know the -PNA argues playing with fire and all, but does anybody else have trouble believeing these warm rainy euro ideas into NNE with the huge -EPO/AO in place?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro op with a 50+ Rainer for all of New England 2/4...lol. Ensembles not as bad but one can rightfully presume there are several stinkers among the members as the mean brings the low right overhead in sne though it might be ok for NNE. Snow to ice to rain up here, but yeah that's ugly. 2/1 goes well north of us too. Like you said, the ens mslp definitely looks better for up here, but there's many warm members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The euro OP is a joke . It's keeps the MJO in 6 and its wrong. ( its been wrong all winter) Check out its MJO forecasts this year vs its verification . The GFS heads it into 7 so the end result is the euro Overflexes the SE ridge and its a likely error . Take a look at euro day 6 , the cold press is so deep it runs a center through northern FLA And ejects it due E And by day 7 the SE ridge is so strong it send a slp from Amarillo to ORD ? The model has done a poor job in a NEG EPO dominated winter. The GFS has 2 weekend systems both cold enough for you guys But Marginal for us in NYC the GFS ensembles have been cold all the way thru. Euro ensembles catch up on day 13 Neg PNA. Neg EPO , think you guys are in for a great FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like it will be a frustrating start to February, clock ticking now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like it will be a frustrating start to February, clock ticking now Boy, aren't you a kill-joy. I don't think the start of February is frustrating. We've got something to watch for the first week. At this time-frame, many different outcomes are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 EURO all alone with this..other models keep things week and have waves scooting out south of LI..That's the idea to go with it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 6z gfs/Gefs have a light snow event Saturday and another stronger one late Sunday into Sun nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 EURO all alone with this..other models keep things week and have waves scooting out south of LI..That's the idea to go with it appearsNo it isn't actually. Look at the GGEM and some GEFS ENS members and EC ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 No it isn't actually. Look at the GGEM and some GEFS ENS members and EC ENS. Discount the GGEM,,,,you're Canadian but your model makes ours look Iike platinum. Ens means don't support the op even though some members do, Heck some gfs members nailed by this week on the coastal and that's a nonstarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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