Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 LOl don't look at the Wxbell weenie snow maps just don't, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hits keep coming too. Weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 LOl don't look at the Wxbell weenie snow maps just don't, lol Yeah, Lot of happy folks on that run verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hits keep coming too. Weenie run. and more in the pike it appears, would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The wound up coastal for the Feb 9-12 period is growing legs it appears, something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I knew undressing myself on the way home friday was not a mistake. I dont care if i get slop, good times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Classic you interpret it as 8-10 and Ginxy 12-15. And me as sloppy slush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I swear some still like to use 2m temps in determining ratios too. I remember that big event a couple Febs ago where we had elevated convection and OCMs were spitting out like 10-20" when upper levels were relatively cooked for good ratios. I think it ended up as a PF special and he had TSSN while I finished with TSPL. Even the ones who know better use it as sort of a "cop out", or means over (over)simplification for the general public....even Harvey Leonard does it. I just shake my head because I know damn well that he knows better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Here is what I mean by model bias. Notice the first image in the second column. That's telling you the GEFS have been to low with heights in AK. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fcst_eval/html/zwk2_bias.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Big storm, very cold, nice to finally see these showing up. We had these showing up at the beginning of this pattern, the problem was they weren't real storms and as they got closer in they kept vanishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Nice run. Most get a significant net snow gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The 2/5 threat involves energy ejecting out of the deep SW...an area where most models consistently have a miserable time. Will be a moving target but luckily there are so many s/w's firing along from the north one will eventually hook up with it...but details are obviously subject to pretty large change despite ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The southern snow party is definitely over heading into Feb. Storm on the 5th looks sloppy, good snow for NNE, Dendrite jackpot still maybe. I think the 10th is a very good threat for an interior SNE burial, with NNE benefiting also. Ray gets his R/S line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I actually think some of these storms may be cold too. It's a little too early to start throwing out jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I actually think some of these storms may be cold too. It's a little too early to start throwing out jackpots. Was just referring to the general location for one in an SWFE. Wow, GFS ENS are so much colder though for both 5th and 10th Feb. (Just signed back up for my amwx model subscription) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Was just referring to the general location for one in an SWFE. Wow, GFS ENS are so much colder though for both 5th and 10th Feb. (Just signed back up for my amwx model subscription) Well that is if it becomes more of a SWFE. Next week may have that look....but the one behind it may not be...who knows this far out. I would favor something similar to a SWFE..but if phasing or blocking shifts then it could be a cstl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Tweet from Ryan Maue says Euro ensembles less bullish on the cold longer turn-keeps it mainly in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Tweet from Ryan Maue says Euro ensembles less bullish on the cold longer turn-keeps it mainly in Canada. It's been doing that since November...hence my earlier posts about the BS retrogression some models have been showing. Blocking sometimes retros to a point so that is no surprise...but the bias ALL season has been to retrograde it. They'll probably be some, but the amount of it is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It's been doing that since November...hence my earlier posts about the BS retrogression some models have been showing. Blocking sometimes retros to a point so that is no surprise...but the bias ALL season has been to retrograde it. They'll probably be some, but the amount of it is questionable. Agree- the Euro has struggled with the pattern longer term all winter, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Tweet from Ryan Maue says Euro ensembles less bullish on the cold longer turn-keeps it mainly in Canada. That should still be fine. Keep the storm chances and track nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 That should still be fine. Keep the storm chances and track nearby. Yeah it's still a cool look here....I mean patterns do have a little wax and wane too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I actually think some of these storms may be cold too. It's a little too early to start throwing out jackpots. Was just referring to the general location for one in an SWFE. Wow, GFS ENS are so much colder though for both 5th and 10th Feb. (Just signed back up for my amwx model subscription) I want the pattern advertised. Welcoming it actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I miss those big thumps...always fun even with taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z GFS continues with juicy southern stream system with SWFE appeal...not much else to say. We'll beat this storm like a dead horse by the time it comes. Ever accurate 18z DGEX NAM extension takes the system up over Watertown in a classic over-amped bomb scenario. Not long until we see one of those solutions out of the GGEM I'm sure. Wish this was closer in so the model runs would mean something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I want the pattern advertised. Welcoming it actually. I'm with you. Good SWFE spot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I miss those big thumps...always fun even with taint. 18z GFS continues that big thump (especially I-90 area and north into SNH) idea. You would get a pretty exciting 6 hours or so before any risk of change. I love those two...just like 0.5-0.75" QPF in 4-6 hours with 0.2"/hr bucket rates at times. Those are always exciting and have some good staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GEFS look snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Over the next day someone should start a thread for the 2/4 to 2/6 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Over the next day someone should start a thread for the 2/4 to 2/6 period. Me. But I'd like to wait till Friday or maybe tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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