wx2fish Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GEFS also have a strong coastal signal the 9-10th. That date keeps popping up on both sets of ensembles. Could be a pretty active stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GEFS also have a strong coastal signal the 9-10th. That data keeps popping up on both sets of ensembles. Could be a pretty active week. Yeah, has the potential to be a fun stretch with the arctic dumping again into the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 violently agree N ever ceases to amaze me how some OCM will rip and read QPF, and go for 1-2' of snow...even at close ranges. Jesus, why do they make poeple get the met degree?? A lot of us would know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'll tell you one thing, 12-15" isn't happening in a swfe....period. Never go any heavier than 6-10" when the mid levels go west. Yeah you know your SWFE climo...it's like if that happens, don't even look at QPF, just go 6-10" followed by freezing drizzle as mid level Dryslot rips in. It's usually the same amounts up here too, just doesn't come in with the intensity of down your way. Without closed off mid level lows going S/E, there's no wrapping moisture back in...it's all WAA thump. Just another solution on the table. Still has time to trend back to Toronto, before then going back to a suppressed solution, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 N ever ceases to amaze me how some OCM will rip and read QPF, and go for 1-2' of snow...even at close ranges. Jesus, why do they make poeple get the met degree?? A lot of us would know better. I swear some still like to use 2m temps in determining ratios too. I remember that big event a couple Febs ago where we had elevated convection and OCMs were spitting out like 10-20" when upper levels were relatively cooked for good ratios. I think it ended up as a PF special and he had TSSN while I finished with TSPL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 N ever ceases to amaze me how some OCM will rip and read QPF, and go for 1-2' of snow...even at close ranges. Jesus, why do they make poeple get the met degree?? A lot of us would know better. Yeah, some of us know from past experiences, Most of these SWFE events are typically between 7-10:1 on ratios max with there origin when i do core samples so we are not seeing 12"+ from these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12/13/07? 3.0" ,7.5" on the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 That's a good run. Again, models trending higher with heights in AK towards the end of the runs. Lets hope it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I swear some still like to use 2m temps in determining ratios too. I remember that big event a couple Febs ago where we had elevated convection and OCMs were spitting out like 10-20" when upper levels were relatively cooked for good ratios. I think it ended up as a PF special and he had TSSN while I finished with TSPL. That FEB 2011 system probably....that was like 8-10" of heavy cake in like 6 hours with TSSN. Like 10 miles south of me had heavy TSPL like you. That was one of the more dynamic events we've had up here that I can remember for such a quick hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Man the GGEM next week would have SNE shoveling a foot of paste. What a weenie solution for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah, some of us know from past experiences, Most of these SWFE events are typically between 7-10:1 on ratios max with there origin when i do core samples so we are not seeing 12"+ from these Yeah in a solution like that you know it's pouring low ratio needles despite cold 850s and SFC because that snow is getting formed with like -3C at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 That FEB 2011 system probably....that was like 8-10" of heavy cake in like 6 hours with TSSN. Like 10 miles south of me had heavy TSPL like you. That was one of the more dynamic events we've had up here that I can remember for such a quick hitter. I remember that one well. I was out snowmobiling about 30 miles from home when the snow started. Made it home just before the lightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Haha nice try Steve. Keep it up buddy. Your other response was much better and what makes this fun, but lets stay on topic. Nice GFS run for CNE, BTV does not make warning criteria per GFS snow maps, hopefully by May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Dude oh how we pray, birthday wish for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Your other response was much better and what makes this fun, but lets stay on topic. Nice GFS run for CNE, BTV does not make warning criteria per GFS snow maps, hopefully by May Haha I deleted it because I know there are a lot on here who are tired of that stuff. You like to single me out for some reason, but you must've missed all the other posts. Anyway, yeah...hopefully we can get some warning snows, you're gonna need to get the poncho ready if that happens. In a GFS solution I think we could get there by the time all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro is pretty far north with Sat night. Congrats YUL-FVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro is pretty far north with Sat night. Congrats YUL-FVE Back to tracking it over Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 After this cold, SB afternoon could feel like 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Lock the Euro please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro/Gem combo for ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Lock the Euro please Big storm, very cold, nice to finally see these showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Pretty good thump on the front end for most followed by some zr for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Big storm, very cold, nice to finally see these showing up. Region wide thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Big storm, very cold, nice to finally see these showing up. How cold are we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 How cold are we talking? Ice storm on the back side after the front end dump , 32 line just east of Boston to under NYC, make sure I say this, verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I wish that euro run for the 5/6th event wasnt 150+ hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I wish that euro run for the 5/6th event wasnt 150+ hours away. I know, Sucks seeing probably one of the best solutions this far out, Its like watching paint dry waiting for it to get into range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just another solution...a good one granted...but one of many in the next 6 days. I will say that having multi-model agreement on a juicey system out of the southern states is a good thing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ice storm on the back side after the front end dump , 32 line just east of Boston to under NYC, make sure I say this, verbatim Well. I don't ever expect ice on the coastal plain. So for now my takeaway is front end thump to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just another solution...a good one granted...but one of many in the next 6 days. I will say that having multi-model agreement on a juicey system out of the southern states is a good thing right now. That's about all you can watch for now, What a weenie run as it try's to cook up another 2 days later at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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