Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 For the 6th?, not buying amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 For the 6th?, not buying amped upBased on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Probably more likely you mix.probably but should have said NNNE, I think the northernmost parts are suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Based on?GEFS, op runs, persistence, cold in Eastern Canada, higher pressure than normal, confluence. And you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 All the talk of GFS caving to the Euros warm cutter have ceased but nary a mention of the fact Euro has been colder each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GEFS, op runs, persistence, cold in Eastern Canada, higher pressure than normal, confluence. And you? There a quite a few amped up 06z GFS members for around the 6th. I would not bet my money on a colder/suppressed scenario right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 There a quite a few amped up 06z GFS members for around the 6th. I would not bet my money on a colder/suppressed scenario right now.I clarified but we shall see, long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Methinks a snowy February for many new englanders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I clarified but we shall see, long way to go Yup. Just comment on what the models show right now. Methinks a snowy February for many new englanders. Could be Jerry. May be a "sneaky" event Mon/Tues to deal with so no reason to get ahead of ourselves though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Afraid some serious suppression depression might be in store for our NNE peeps. And when the suppression ends, we'll probably return to cutters. At least my area in the CAD capital holds on to snowpack, which at 15-16" is about average for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 All the talk of GFS caving to the Euros warm cutter have ceased but nary a mention of the fact Euro has been colder each run. GFS trended a lot more toward the Euro than vice-versa...Euro trended less amped for Saturday, but lets nt forget that the GFS was tracking that thing over LI a couple days ago. It might not track over toronto like the Euro said, but it should still be NW over centra/upstate NY. That's pretty much where the GFS tracks it now. 70/30 compromise in favor of the EC Unless you are talking about 2/5....but that is out in clown range...that means nothing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Afraid some serious suppression depression might be in store for our NNE peeps. Ensembles say no, Euro looked real good and the 06z GEFS as well, Did not match support the suppressed op runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Afraid some serious suppression depression might be in store for our NNE peeps. And when the suppression ends, we'll probably return to cutters. At least my area in the CAD capital holds on to snowpack, which at 15-16" is about average for the date. wouldn't be surprised to see the cutters return. I keep saying that we've probably had the best part of winter already. Just hope I'm wrong.Best place be this year is the upper mid west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ginx starting regional wars. A week+ out is a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ginx starting regional wars. A week+ out is a long time. He is fine, I am not concerned about suppression this time around unless it ends up a sheared out POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 He is fine, I am not concerned about suppression this time around unless it ends up a sheared out POSAnd we know how these southern systems love to juice up as we approach T-0 if we get a lot of convection firing in the SE/GOM. We'll see. It's in lalaland so everything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 And we know how these southern systems love to juice up as we approach T-0 if we get a lot of convection firing in the SE/GOM. We'll see. It's in lalaland so everything is on the table. Good chance i won't have to walk around in a shawl holding a fresh pot of coffee with qpf concerns with this systems origin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I feel good about this month. Plenty of threats, so i think most should slip, fall, land in a snowstorm, at some time or another.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well if anything at least the first portion of February looks to be quite active with several storm threats. Basically exactly what you want to see at this stage. As for the pattern and how that sets up...it certainly is more favorable than unfavorable but any more details will just have to be ironed out as you close in on any threats. At least it's looking like we'll see continued ridging into Alaska which is always a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Although the GFS/euro develop some pretty strong ridging across the East by about Day 10...but perhaps it's only brief and then looks like another PV plunge...this time in to northern New England and that pattern post D10 would favor strongest cold anomalies here in New England...maybe we haven't seen our coldest wx yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ginx starting regional wars. A week+ out is a long time. Yea so expressing my opinion is bad. I want snow for everybody, good try though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The bigger question is how much will the ridge retro towards NE Siberia? Ironically if that does happen it shifts the troughing towards the East Coast as the PV tries to move towards eastern Canada. I feel like models are killing the MJO too quickly as it appears to want to stay near the maritime continent as converging 850mb winds and a developing warm water pool (which may be our Nino) try to develop. I have noticed a tendency for this retrogression to be too quick, but it appears it will happen in some shape or form. As that happens and the WP flips..you almost might see a tendency for weak ridging over the west coast which may be part of the reason for a PV shift. Also, some signs ridging may build back again in the same area if it does retro. You can see subtle signs of this at the ends of the EC run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Whats the take on the Mon Euro system which prints out 3-5 inches for a lot of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We talked about cleaning up the disussion threads last night in banter and then the met weenie tries to stir ish up today. I also think it could be supressed, IF....and thats a big, IF the pv slides to our NE instead of over the GL. I pray to the gods I dont believe in that my opinion will not be viewed as a weenie wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Whats the take on the Mon Euro system which prints out 3-5 inches for a lot of SNE? Im curious how much of an affect the SB system has on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Also the Fri-Sun timeframe especially in SNE should be on the mild side. Monday is up in the air and dependent on what if any low tracks off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Whats the take on the Mon Euro system which prints out 3-5 inches for a lot of SNE? That's the 2nd run in the last coupel days that the Euro showed it, but it doesn't seem to have much ensemble support. Its been on and off on the OP runs though. At the moment it is just another possible outcome, but I'd put it on the more unlikely side right now. We'll see how 12z goes. The multiple shortwaves in the flow with a gradient developing in the east makes for a highly uncertain forecast....but one that favors storminess next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ginx starting regional wars. A week+ out is a long time. Haha. That was more for his northern VT friends Things have just been moving around all over the place...could very well amp back up and then even suppress again. We have enough time for it to go back to Toronto and then back south again. Not overly concerned at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 That's the 2nd run in the last coupel days that the Euro showed it, but it doesn't seem to have much ensemble support. Its been on and off on the OP runs though. At the moment it is just another possible outcome, but I'd put it on the more unlikely side right now. We'll see how 12z goes. The multiple shortwaves in the flow with a gradient developing in the east makes for a highly uncertain forecast....but one that favors storminess next week. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Haha. That was more for his northern VT friends Things have just been moving around all over the place...could very well amp back up and then even suppress again. We have enough time for it to go back to Toronto and then back south again. Not overly concerned at this point. I have friends in NNNE who would be more depressed as they don"t have a magic mountain in their back yard Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan1h Vermont having a bottom 10 snowy month of Jan. That turns arounds Saturday with 5"-10", widespread all in one day. FEBRUARY starts off sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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