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February 2014 Pattern Discussion Thread


free_man

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Well it's mostly boring for the rest of Jan and the next threat for something substantial is early Feb so I guess we can promote this thread now.

 

 

January discussion thread is pretty much wrapped up...I guess we can talk about any small events in there, but any large ticket threats are going to be in February

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GEFS looked very cold today all the way out.

 

 

Euro ensembles are a bit colder again for 2/4.

 

Signal is pretty strong for a system aroudn then in any case. Pretty darn cold look overall after that too...not as brutal as the GEFs, but pretty widespread CONUS cold.

 

 

That's good to hear despite the heating bills (and/or shrinking wood pile).  I have faith that if we keep the cold the atmosphere will eventually give us a few of the juiced up systems we are all craving.

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Euro ensembles are a bit colder again for 2/4.

 

Signal is pretty strong for a system aroudn then in any case. Pretty darn cold look overall after that too...not as brutal as the GEFs, but pretty widespread CONUS cold.

I guess all we can ask for is chances as we head into Feb....climatologically the best month for a reason.

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I hope so lol...but it looks transient without ridging north of it. gotta time it...but its so far away I just like the activity, not suppressed cold with just northern stream rushing through. but "I am NOT a genius", in Rich Kotite's words.

You don't mean the former Eagle coach?!?  Truer words have never been said...

 

Maybe we really do go the whole season with no NAO blocking at all but I would think at some point...

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You don't mean the former Eagle coach?!?  Truer words have never been said...

 

Maybe we really do go the whole season with no NAO blocking at all but I would think at some point...

 

 

It wouldn't be too unusual to go wire to wire with very little NAO blocking. Both good years and bad years have done it. 2007-2008 did it. 2011-2012 did it too for the most part. One year was great (esp north of pike) and the other year was awful.

 

 

I think the best time for an NAO block would be late Feb into March if one were to pop up this season...I hope that is when it occurs too because that is when it tends to really help us. We can get some epic patterns when that occurs. Mar 2001, Mar 2005, and last March are examples.

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