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February 2014 Pattern Discussion Thread


free_man

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Fall River can be tough for snow lovers. At least last year worked out fairly well there.

Yep. Def. can be.  Seems like areas just a few miles up Rte 24 can do a whole better.  Has happened with every storm this year. But I take what I can get.  Always hope for those good years like 10-11 and I'm old enough to remember those great late 70s winters.  That is what I like about this year.  Like snow here.  But good to see a winter that rivals those years just in the cold and snow in a lot places around the country.

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Id assume most in SNE would like the PV a little more E for next week...correct?

Probably, but it's a tightrope I would think. Too much east and it might crush everything south, and the flow would stay more zonal with the trough digging over the mountains out west (it may actually snow in the Sierra, where Mammoth is at 48" on the season). As Tip was saying, the storminess comes from the higher amplitude in the flow, vs the strong progressive flow we've seen recently.

Without a block up northeast of us, we just need to thread the needle. As the ensembles have shown, it could be Toronto or NYC or anywhere inbetween. Should be interesting. At least there's stuff to track on the horizon.

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interesting wave on Monday that popped up. don't know if it was there before, if it was...it wasn't much. still isn't much but if its spaced out a bit from the SB system, it could amplify a bit.

 

so many waves, the pros and certain amateurs were spot on with regards to guidance having a tough time figuring out which or what wave and do what with it.

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The GFS has been putting out a lot of weenie runs lately. It shows how the pattern could go if things break right.

 

 

There's obviously no guarantees. Feb 1972 and Feb 1975 continue to move up the list of analog patterns on the various guidance. Those were quite snowy in New England. There's still some generally less snowy patterns in the mix too like Feb 1982, but those seems to be slowly disappearing, so we'll just have to see.

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Despite a meh look on the op, the euro ensembles really like next week targeting Wednesday for widespread snow.

Yes they are much more bullish. They also got colder buy quite a bit in the long range. We'll have to see if this is another trend to reverse the model

bias of breaking down the EPO too quickly.

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La, la land comment on the Op Euro supression but you can see what it's doing, it's burying the s/w over the Baja and that in tune allows the confluence to build in across the northeast,  Pure classic Euro bias right there.  This weekend looks like a sheared out mess right now which is not a bad thing.  Nice lights snows across NNE.  Than the boundary sags S and we'll need to watch for a leading wave around Mon/Tues.  This wave may miss us to the S as that is when the confluence looks to be the strongest over us.  After this is what may be the strogest of the waves and looks to be a more widespread event. 

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