HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Atlanta is having a 12/13/07 nightmare.Saw those pics. TWC showing it well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Definite snow looking sky here now, actually looking forward to being in SECT tomorrow for once, should be a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So odd to see blowing sugar in the deep deep south. I mean it snows there but blowing sugar? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 County authorities issued a Civil emergency in AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 How much have they gotten down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Alright guys, we don't need play by play in here of the southeast winter storm...even though it is impressive. Take it to banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thought i was in banter, my bad Will. Ummmm...long range gefs mean is wierd. It retros ak block but deepens and broadens trough in conus. Are my eyes in sync with my brain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well as usual dates can shift around and I was hoping the Saturday deal could have worked out. The models had an interesting configuration at 500mb about a week ago...but now the Saturday deal looks rather meager. That Thursday through Sunday timeframe was the time I was hoping for something interesting. The good news is that next week and beyond definitely hold some interest as we become active no doubt. The amount of storms and QPF seem the least of the questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well as usual dates can shift around and I was hoping the Saturday deal could have worked out. The models had an interesting configuration at 500mb about a week ago...but now the Saturday deal looks rather meager. That Thursday through Sunday timeframe was the time I was hoping for something interesting. The good news is that next week and beyond definitely hold some interest as we become active no doubt. The amount of storms and QPF seem the least of the questions. Good point Will's earlier set of dates/possibilities shows this idea well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS with a few inches for NNE on Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good point Will's earlier set of dates/possibilities shows this idea well This really could be a hell of a run for many of us. That's a tasty look for some good storms to ride up the coast. The bigger issue may be ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And then the GFS goes bonkers after truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS with a few inches for NNE on Sat night. Yeah that had a more robust SWFE appeal. Man it has a juicy monster for the 2/5 system, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This really could be a hell of a run for many of us. That's a tasty look for some good storms to ride up the coast. The bigger issue may be ptype.With any luck the rain line is just south of our SNE members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't mind gambling with p type as long as some storms roll through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't mind gambling with p type as long as some storms roll through Agreed. Bring on the juicers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z GEFS mean is beautiful, and colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't mind gambling with p type as long as some storms roll throughif you are gambling I am raining but at this time of year it's all about the skiing for me. Kevin Jackpots are good for me, Dendrite not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Will the low SSTs give coastal regions a bit more wiggle room when it comes to the theoretical R/S threats? Not that it would help in a big ole cutter, but just curious about the impact in marginal/on the line situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Will the low SSTs give coastal regions a bit more wiggle room when it comes to the theoretical R/S threats? Not that it would help in a big ole cutter, but just curious about the impact in marginal/on the line situations would be. Well 38-39F SSTs certainly are better than SSTs in the mid and even U 40s to start out December. They'll cool off if the pattern allows it to, right until mid March or so before levelling off and getting some small diurnal variations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Anyone can weenie me on this, but I'm bored, so was looking around the always accurate DGEX has back-to-back SWFE ala '07-'08 coming up... Extrapolating the NAM (always a good idea) comes out with a nice event this weekend from the Pike northward...40/70, Will, Hunchie, all in a good heavy burst of overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I will take my chances the next 10 days or so with this pattern, I will go with climo and say we will get the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Anyone can weenie me on this, but I'm bored, so was looking around the always accurate DGEX has back-to-back SWFE ala '07-'08 coming up... Extrapolating the NAM (always a good idea) comes out with a nice event this weekend from the Pike northward...40/70, Will, Hunchie, all in a good heavy burst of overrunning. f102.gif f108.gif Just get the qpf up here, We will make it work, That has been what we have lacked, I will roll the dice with marginal cold, If we have to get a couple mixed bag events so be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just get the qpf up here, We will make it work, That has been what we have lacked, I will roll the dice with marginal cold, If we have to get a couple mixed bag events so be it To further confuse people... here's a 180 hour prog of the DGEX for the next week event... you want SWFE QPF, here it is, haha. Another classic SWFE climo from Pike northward. The validity of this or any solution is right up there in accuracy along with a 5-year-old with crayons at this point... but I love the almost textbook SWFE solution. -10C H85 temps near Dendrite with 0C near ORH. Should just change the year of this to January 2008. All joking aside, you can see why ORH/Will has been hammering the better CAD with the second system. You can see that here with a pretty cold surface until the dryslot would race in. Pure boredrum on my part to be posting this, but sort of goes along with what some of the METs have been speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well 38-39F SSTs certainly are better than SSTs in the mid and even U 40s to start out December. They'll cool off if the pattern allows it to, right until mid March or so before levelling off and getting some small diurnal variations. I think that it should help in keeping any front-end snows from changing quickly with a ne wind After reviewing some earlier posts seems like people are throwing around 07-08 as the type of upcoming pattern. I don't remember that year as having any real extensive cold like this year. So while pattern may be similar, would there be more cold to work with, esp. with front-end snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I think that it should help in keeping any front-end snows from changing quickly with a ne wind After reviewing some earlier posts seems like people are throwing around 07-08 as the type of upcoming pattern. I don't remember that year as having any real extensive cold like this year. So while pattern may be similar, would there be more cold to work with, esp. with front-end snows? You would not like that analog being in Fall River. That year had an epic gradient from you to southern NH. I think you got maybe 35" or so while southern NH got 100". Anyways, I think that was a example as the types of storm track possible. Personally, I don't see a 2007-2008 pattern as the PV is in a more favorable location for us. Also, the systems may have some Gulf origins unlike that year when they were more Plains systems ejecting northeast and just tapping into some Gulf moisutre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GEFS are pretty nice looking for next week...but its pretty repetitive at the moment until we get closer. The spread is likely to remain large for at least the next 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 You would not like that analog being in Fall River. That year had an epic gradient from you to southern NH. I think you got maybe 35" or so while southern NH got 100". Anyways, I think that was a example as the types of storm track possible. Personally, I don't see a 2007-2008 pattern as the PV is in a more favorable location for us. Also, the systems may have some Gulf origins unlike that year when they were more Plains systems ejecting northeast and just tapping into some Gulf moisutre. Oh yeah that year was horrid. Storm after storm sailing to our north. What you have to expect a lot of years living in extreme sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Oh yeah that year was horrid. Storm after storm sailing to our north. What you have to expect a lot of years living in extreme sne. Fall River can be tough for snow lovers. At least last year worked out fairly well there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Don't have the time these days ... but just a cursory eval of the main players and teles ... seems evident that a period of more storminess overall is in store, as a "somewhat" less meridional flow allows for actual moisture transport into the mean, well-established polar/arctic air. Last few cycles of the GFS have several moderate winter storm threats as I'm sure has been heavily covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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