weathafella Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Classic swfe and I think the euro would ultimately force a triple point under us as the system is not that wound up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Classic swfe and I think the euro would ultimately force a triple point under us as the system is not that wound up It basically does that on this run. Regardless...a lot of jiuce will be coming out of the southern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm actually looiking forward to a classic swfe.....esp. if it's juicy. They have their limitations, but the QPF is more certain to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And then a potential doozy brewing in the Gulf at day 10. Let the parade begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It basically does that on this run. Regardless...a lot of jiuce will be coming out of the southern states. It seems as if the southern jet is finally becoming active. Is that because of the MJO leading to more forcing in the subtropical jet, or just because the ridge is moving westward in AK/Pacific Northwest to allow for more Pacific moisture across the CONUS? Or maybe these are one and the same phenomenon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And then a potential doozy brewing in the Gulf at day 10. Let the parade begin. Miller A, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Miller A, though... Not your classic one with troughing in the west and big ridging pushing up over the East coast. Anyways, way out there..just stating the parade is about to begin. Just not sure what kind of parade it will be...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sounds like an epic battle line being drawn between the STJ and the severe cold...reminds me of Feb '03 And the setup of the Presidents Day storm. should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This means very little, but the Canadian ensembles make sense to me regarding later next week. Primary running up the OV with secondary over SNE. I could buy that this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not your classic one with troughing in the west and big ridging pushing up over the East coast. Anyways, way out there..just stating the parade is about to begin. Just not sure what kind of parade it will be...lol. Yea. Hey, its better than the dry pattern that we've had. I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This means very little, but the Canadian ensembles make sense to me regarding later next week. Primary running up the OV with secondary over SNE. I could buy that this far out. I telling Jeff this morning...it strikes me as a classic '07-'08 type of event, so I would agree with that assessment. String some 2-5"ers together, and it adds up....especially if we maintain some semblance of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sounds like an epic battle line being drawn between the STJ and the severe cold...reminds me of Feb '03 And the setup of the Presidents Day storm. should be interesting. Yea, that season was all Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I telling Jeff this morning...it strikes me as a classic '07-'08 type of event, so I would agree with that assessment. String some 2-5"ers together, and it adds up....especially if we maintain some semblance of cold. As I have mentioned before, my memory of specific events is rather poor. Any specific ones I could look at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And then a potential doozy brewing in the Gulf at day 10. Let the parade begin. What are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 As I have mentioned before, my memory of specific events is rather poor. Any specific ones I could look at? I don't think this one will be as prolific as most from Dec 2007....there were several from Jan-Feb 2008 that would fit the bill. There was one robust one around Feb 20, but the rest were your standard 2-5''ers n of the pike... Will could prob provide specific dates. Basically and event from Jan-Feb 2008, aside from the one in latter Feb that was heavier...I got jp with like 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What are you looking at? The day 10 euro op. It has something brewing in the Gulf...and models are sort of keying in on the 8-10 or so as another possible date for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Should be a really nice hit for NNE with the D8 event. Hopefully that is bullet-proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't think this one will be as prolific as most from Dec 2007....there were several from Jan-Feb 2008 that would fit the bill. There was one robust one around Feb 20, but the rest were your standard 2-5''ers n of the pike... Will could prob provide specific dates. Basically and event from Jan-Feb 2008, aside from the one in latter Feb that was heavier...I got jp with like 10". The pattern gradually shifted northward as that season wore on....Dec nailed sne n of the pike, then it shifted n with one that was supposed to hit sne hard, but neded up being mainly rain....nne kept getting pounded, and the rest is history. We just had that one in latter Feb that came back s and nailed sne....other than that, the season tailed off for sne post Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The day 10 euro op. It has something brewing in the Gulf...and models are sort of keying in on the 8-10 or so as another possible date for something. It does? Is it that bagginess south of Texas? (sorta embarrassed to assume you mean the GOM, and not the GOA...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The pattern gradually shifted northward as that season wore on....Dec nailed sne n of the pike, then it shifted n with one that was supposed to hit sne hard, but neded up being mainly rain....nne kept getting pounded, and the rest is history. We just had that one in latter Feb that came back s and nailed sne....other than that, the season tailed off for sne post Dec. Thanks, Ray... looking at old data now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I telling Jeff this morning...it strikes me as a classic '07-'08 type of event, so I would agree with that assessment. String some 2-5"ers together, and it adds up....especially if we maintain some semblance of cold. Looking back, There was one 14" event on 1/8 that year up here, But quite a few modest ones in the 5-9" range that winter which seems to be more of the typical SWFE sized events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It does? Is it that bagginess south of Texas? (sorta embarrassed to assume you mean the GOM, and not the GOA...) Yeah....I'm not sure what link you are using, but there is a low well east of Brownsville TX with a ton of QPF well NE of it through the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 An ugly rainstorm that Feb 12-13... lots of 3"+ amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah....I'm not sure what link you are using, but there is a low well east of Brownsville TX with a ton of QPF well NE of it through the Carolinas. Just the PSU site... looks lame on that. (looking at the 240 hour one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 As for getting back to real metoeorlogy...here is how I envision the next 10 days or so going: Jan 28-Jan 31: Below avg temps...dry except the scraper potentially for the Cape and far SE zones. Feb 1: Sneaky torch with the weak low passing to our NW. I wouldn't be shocked if it started as some sleet or snow north of the pike or something before going to rain. Doesn't look all that juicey. Feb 2: Transition back to colder temps..but it could be an "in-between" day Feb 3-6: Multiple storm threats. Big CAD look. Could be all snow or it could be snow to a messy icy mixed bag of sleet/ZR and rain for SE coastal areas...since CAD looks strong, it would probably not be quick transitional ice, but rather prolonged if the storm tried to track further NW. It is unclear whether we get one major threat in this period or perhaps another smaller one preceding the larger one ala the Euro and ensmebles. as someone who logs on infrequently and tries to get a quick read, god bless you for this,i am done reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 An ugly rainstorm that Feb 12-13... lots of 3"+ amounts This post is confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This post is confusing He means 3"+ of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This post is confusing Sorry... just looking back at Feb 2008 (Ray was discussing that winter) There was a snow followed by awful rainstorm event. I think I recall coming home to a flooded basement for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Feb 2008 wasn't great for a lot of people...that was when the season became NNE dominant. I don't necessarily see that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Low on the 12z ECWMF ensemble mean is way south of the op. Tracks the low south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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