Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 -PNA = GFS sucking again. Bowing to the euro. Is the Euro generally better in a -PNA pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 does a cut sunday actually help us next week? at least to get a bigger event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It was an on island for the past 36 hours regarding the 2/1 system...that's usually not a good place for the GFS to be and have success. Despite it scoring a coop earlier this month. But nothing surprising here. That system is a waste...and low upside anyway. Oh for sure...but you can see the classic bias at play from years ago. Hopefully an inch or two before hand..but I agree...not really an upside to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'll send you the weeklies, Will. It will take until June for them to thaw out..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 how much qpf with it anyway? .25? Yeah maybe a bit more in spots...at least this run. Euro was more paltry because most of the forcing stayed NW of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 does a cut sunday actually help us next week? at least to get a bigger event I don't think it does. Seems like other upstream stuff is much more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snow data is very unreliable and missing a lot There are gaps for sure, but I don't think it's so bad as to be completely unrepresentative especially when you look at spatial consistency and clustering. For example, around here NYC/LGA/JFK/BDR/Stamford co-op are all within 8 inches of each other with a south to north gradient as you'd expect. Sure there are missing and bad data points, but it doesn't completely destroy the usefulness of the average. From a straight averaging standpoint you really need lots of missing data that coincides with big events or large chunks of the season just outright missing to move the needle significantly over 30 years. It's tough to argue over a few inches of normal snowfall since spatial variability in snowfall is pretty high, and that variability may be within the error of snow climatology at many stations. Also of note is this last round of normals had the most aggressive methods for accounting for bad or missing data or short histories (<30 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Only 7 more days to go before the good stuff arrives, hang in there gents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Steve all respect due... but are we reading the same stuff? The good is harder to find than the bad a lot of the time. Always a cloud of confusion above the discussion. I know other posters have mentioned it today. When I first joined I don't think it was like that. I'll be clear you are a fine poster, no probs at all or anything.rather than post unreadable la di da, why not add to the discussion and ignore the rest? When Jerry posted that I was baffled really. Was some good discussion. I am not discounting the GFS entirely, maybe some net gains for interior folks. Steve, My life is too demanding for me to wade through so much banter in a non banter thread. I'm on the verge of packing it in.... More trouble than it's worth. Why does it bother you that many have this opinion ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Steve, My life is too demanding for me to wade through so much banter in a non banter thread. I'm on the verge of packing it in.... More trouble than it's worth. Why does it bother you that many have this opinion ? maybe we need 2 things here. Start a "I got screwed/complaint thread" Post all whining, bitching/moaning/backyard stuff there to your hearts content....mods need to move or delete any such stuff out of this thread. Agree 100% with Jerry-don't want to have to come to this thread and hunt for what I'm looking for which lately is 1 good post out of 10 posts in the discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol the GFS Heh, let's hope the GFS isn't still too far south on this run particularly around 2/5. Toronto Blizzard will be happy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Another s/w targeted, another of 25 different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Heh, let's hope the GFS isn't still too far south on this run particularly around 2/5. Toronto Blizzard will be happy though. It truncates just at the right time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It truncates just at the right time Even before that it's setting up a screaming southeaster. This is the danger in a pattern with no blocking. I'll enjoy my snow tonight into Wednesday whatever it may be and not worry too much about next week. Post Lego Movie I think is the prime time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The mini-torch at least looks short lived, not too wet, and not hugely warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Even before that it's setting up a screaming southeaster. This is the danger in a pattern with no blocking. I'll enjoy my snow tonight into Wednesday whatever it may be and not worry too much about next week. Post Lego Movie I think is the prime time. The more amped, The worse it could be, Its a fine line that will be walked with this one, Just want to be on the NW side of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z GEFS certainly did not follow the op run for the 5th, At any rate like some mentioned, This will change several more times before the eventual area this will track over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z GEFS certainly did not follow the op run for the 5th, At any rate like some mentioned, This will change several more times before the eventual area this will track over Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z GEFS certainly did not follow the op run for the 5th, At any rate like some mentioned, This will change several more times before the eventual area this will track over Still some pretty amped members however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The spread on the GEFS is like 700 miles. Its easy to forget that this system is about 180 hours out. We are not anywhere near a range where modeling becomes reliable. All we can say is that the pattern is very favorable for a large storm system to move out of the southern states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Still some pretty amped members however. Quite sure there is, But by the looks of the track there are several that probably are way SE as well, I have not looked at the individuals yet, I like to wait until the run is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The spread on the GEFS is like 700 miles. Its easy to forget that this system is about 180 hours out. We are not anywhere near a range where modeling becomes reliable. All we can say is that the pattern is very favorable for a large storm system to move out of the southern states. And that is pretty much certain at this point, Details to be determined later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Only 7 more days to go before the good stuff arrives, hang in there gents.Ha ha I wouldn't be sure of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't think it does. Seems like other upstream stuff is much more important. I was hoping it perhaps gives us some sort of transient block that helps push things south a bit. Wishful thinking and I do understand the large scale synoptics will drive things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snow data is very unreliable and missing a lot You can usually fill in the gaps and I mean you gotta work with what you have. In a perfect world every town would have 150 years of data but unfortunately, we gotta use what we have. You can speculate pretty well based on a variety of factors at any one location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Only 1 member is a whiff...the rest show a fairly big system. The folks who worry about contours not reaching their mailboxes can cease...might not be frozen but thats the way it rolls. Take some pills and strap into your baby seats, gonna be a long bumpy ride...with barf bags at your disposal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Only 7 more days to go before the good stuff arrives, hang in there gents. I feel like we've been saying that the past few weeks....always 7 days away. Granted we can only speculate on what the models give us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro is weaker with Saturday's system...weak enough that it would probably keep NNE cold enough for an inch or two of snow. Pretty paltry qpf with it being weaker, but the system wasn't very juiced to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Quite a contrast in the upper levels on the Euro from 0z to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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