ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't think it's turned into that at all. Again go back for yourself and see the posts. They are there. We will look forward to a potential great week next week. If you are going to refer to posts...then quote them. Otherwise don't mention them if you don't even know who wrote them. Cutters can happen in this pattern. We've said it a million times that a +NAO still risks giving you some NW tracks...but the EPO- usually offsets to some degree to make for a lot of wintry events too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Hmm, tomorrow is interesting now for my work area 1-3 in the forecast down there. RI forecasters calling for 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Will and myself have said for two weeks Now that we will start to see these storms Coming out of the Plains with a dropping PNA. You always run the risk of SWFE type stuff or even inside runners with no Blocking. Always a risk. Next week looks pretty good with the chance of multiple events from Monday to Monday. I don't know why these threads always turn into a weenie-fest of awful posts. Nah, I understand that none will be pretty.....no complaints. I'll take what I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 For the record GEFS are snow for a better part of the region. Yes they are...and they are a big outliers the multi-model ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know this post will be met with some animosity, but it seems like we were all hearing how epic January and February looked....but a lot of us have one significant snow event at the onset of January to show for this, and the "epicosity" keeps getting punted forward. Now we're looking at almost halfway through February regarding the next "real" threat. 2/10? I'm almost ready to go 2010 on this season and just move on. Caveat: I understand that all we can do is predict "chances", and that they haven't worked out. Not an indictment on anyone's probalistic forecasting, but it is what it is. Not whining...I'm past that. What. 2/10?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know this post will be met with some animosity, but it seems like we were all hearing how epic January and February looked....but a lot of us have one significant snow event at the onset of January to show for this, and the "epicosity" keeps getting punted forward. Now we're looking at almost halfway through February regarding the next "real" threat. 2/10? I'm almost ready to go 2010 on this season and just move on. Caveat: I understand that all we can do is predict "chances", and that they haven't worked out. Not an indictment on anyone's probalistic forecasting, but it is what it is. Not whining...I'm past that. lol, yeah you are, repost this in two weeks and if it's the same you just went through then you are spot on, the best period has been the next two weeks. I had a foot of snow, but you didn't I understand your frustration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yes they are...and they are a big outliers the multi-model ensemble.for the record like I said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Unbelievable. Things can change. The models dropped the PNA significantly which means the risk is warmer over the east at times..especially this week. It happens..it is called weather. Jesus Christ you guys are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Unreadable before 9AM. Cya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What. 2/10?? Maybe he's think of a large scale synoptic event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I never liked this period for anything other than some rain showers for the coastal plain of MA and RI. Honestly after this offshore storm tomorrow, it looks like the PV retreats and it warms up, not 50F+, but maybe low 40s type of weather pattern as PNA goes negative the ridge breaks down and reloads over Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I never liked this period for anything other than some rain showers for the coastal plain of MA and RI. Honestly after this offshore storm tomorrow, it looks like the PV retreats and it warms up, not 50F+, but maybe low 40s type of weather pattern as PNA goes negative the ridge breaks down and reloads over Alaska. Yes after the 12" tonight, it looks to hit 65-70 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yes after the 12" tonight, it looks to hit 65-70 for you.somebody pissed in your cheerios this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol, yeah you are, repost this in two weeks and if it's the same you just went through then you are spot on, the best period has been the next two weeks. I had a foot of snow, but you didn't I understand your frustration No, I'm not. Just telling it like it is. Not that any of you care, but I haven't pulled the plug yet....as you just intimated, it we get into mid Feb, and are still talking about reloads, etc....then I'll revisit. I'm over it, Steve.....would annother near miss piss me off, sure.....but I can see the light at the end of the seasonal tunnel. Get the truck and equipment ready...title defense is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 As for getting back to real metoeorlogy...here is how I envision the next 10 days or so going:Jan 28-Jan 31: Below avg temps...dry except the scraper potentially for the Cape and far SE zones.Feb 1: Sneaky torch with the weak low passing to our NW. I wouldn't be shocked if it started as some sleet or snow north of the pike or something before going to rain. Doesn't look all that juicey.Feb 2: Transition back to colder temps..but it could be an "in-between" dayFeb 3-6: Multiple storm threats. Big CAD look. Could be all snow or it could be snow to a messy icy mixed bag of sleet/ZR and rain for SE coastal areas...since CAD looks strong, it would probably not be quick transitional ice, but rather prolonged if the storm tried to track further NW. It is unclear whether we get one major threat in this period or perhaps another smaller one preceding the larger one ala the Euro and ensmebles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Unbelievable. Things can change. The models dropped the PNA significantly which means the risk is warmer over the east at times..especially this week. It happens..it is called weather. Jesus Christ you guys are ridiculous. Please be more specific on whos ridic...some folks are standing on solid ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Ok then.. It was you and your post. Do you remember it? I don't think it matters much now anyway What don't you get? All along the pattern has looked good but I don't think anyone said it was a lock and as has been mentioned all along cutters are a risk given the teleconnections. The trolling and the woe is me stuff has got to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 As for getting back to real metoeorlogy...here is how I envision the next 10 days or so going: Jan 28-Jan 30: Below avg temps...dry except the scraper potentially for the Cape and far SE zones. Jan 31: Sneaky torch with the weak low passing to our NW. I wouldn't be shocked if it started as some sleet or snow north of the pike or something before going to rain. Doesn't look all that juicey. Feb 1: Transition back to colder temps..but it could be an "in-between" day Feb 2-6: Multiple storm threats. Big CAD look. Could be all snow or it could be snow to a messy icy mixed bag of sleet/ZR and rain for SE coastal areas...since CAD looks strong, it would probably not be quick transitional ice, but rather prolonged if the storm tried to track further NW. It is unclear whether we get one major threat in this period or perhaps another smaller one preceding the larger one ala the Euro and ensmebles. Whats your early take on rest of Feb? I like the look of the gefs mean fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow Unreadable before 9AM. Cya. Yeah, I'm going to take a few days off from the wx related threads, maybe people will have regained their sanity by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Unbelievable. Things can change. The models dropped the PNA significantly which means the risk is warmer over the east at times..especially this week. It happens..it is called weather. Jesus Christ one of you guys is being are ridiculous. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know this post will be met with some animosity, but it seems like we were all hearing how epic January and February looked....but a lot of us have one significant snow event at the onset of January to show for this, and the "epicosity" keeps getting punted forward. Now we're looking at almost halfway through February regarding the next "real" threat. 2/10? I'm almost ready to go 2010 on this season and just move on. Caveat: I understand that all we can do is predict "chances", and that they haven't worked out. Not an indictment on anyone's probalistic forecasting, but it is what it is. Not whining...I'm past that. Quite ironic you mentioned that, It has crossed my mind these last couple weeks, But i was able to flush it out with a handle of Rum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm the one sitting at 18.5" on the season... I have more to complain about than the rest of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm the one sitting at 18.5" on the season... I have more to complain about than the rest of you What's your annual average there? 32-34"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good times, great post Will. I don't trust modeling at all for finite details past day 2. Just using large scale looks, should be an active fun time. I did lol when Will mentioned 94 because despite all the ball busters that is still a look the models are putting out. Just happy I am not working outside today for extended periods. Cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM says I have commute issues tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What's your annual average there? 32-34"? I bit over 40. HVN is actually low 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know this post will be met with some animosity, but it seems like we were all hearing how epic January and February looked....but a lot of us have one significant snow event at the onset of January to show for this, and the "epicosity" keeps getting punted forward. Now we're looking at almost halfway through February regarding the next "real" threat. 2/10? I'm almost ready to go 2010 on this season and just move on. Caveat: I understand that all we can do is predict "chances", and that they haven't worked out. Not an indictment on anyone's probalistic forecasting, but it is what it is. Not whining...I'm past that. In fairness I know this month has blown for you but down here it's been a whimpering epic. IE, on paper and for the shear unusual nature of two wind driven bitter cold "blizzards" it was epic. The impact of those blizzards was low for the very reason they were so special. Cold and dry snow doesn't knock out power and cause all sorts of damage. But....overall it's been a special month and it will end on that note for the Cape and particularly ACK which is having a very snowy month. This next one won't be like those huge torches from earlier. It would probably be a sneaky 12-18 hour torch that is most noticeable along the CP...but whatever. I've never been that excited about Saturday even if it went south. It's not a very attractive system with high upside. The stuff behind it has much more upside and the CAD signal on it is much much stronger. Yeah my bad I was including this weekend as one of the two I mentioned. Exactly what I meant though. PF is off the ledge, SR is expanding trails. We're not getting the mountain soakers we were getting in that 10 day period now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Probably would not hurt to take the meltdown out of the thread title as some look at this thread as a place to come in and vent, Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Quite ironic you mentioned that, It has crossed my mind these last couple weeks, But i was able to flush it out with a handle of Rum Flush it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 As for getting back to real metoeorlogy...here is how I envision the next 10 days or so going: Jan 28-Jan 31: Below avg temps...dry except the scraper potentially for the Cape and far SE zones. Feb 1: Sneaky torch with the weak low passing to our NW. I wouldn't be shocked if it started as some sleet or snow north of the pike or something before going to rain. Doesn't look all that juicey. Feb 2: Transition back to colder temps..but it could be an "in-between" day Feb 3-6: Multiple storm threats. Big CAD look. Could be all snow or it could be snow to a messy icy mixed bag of sleet/ZR and rain for SE coastal areas...since CAD looks strong, it would probably not be quick transitional ice, but rather prolonged if the storm tried to track further NW. It is unclear whether we get one major threat in this period or perhaps another smaller one preceding the larger one ala the Euro and ensmebles. Fixed the dates...I was one day off in my head for the sneaky torch...and subsequent pattern behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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