Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS op will be wrong. It's already coming in warmer. Cutters gone cut. Walking the line down in SNE but we should be able to cash in if we can hold the confluence to our N and have a parade of weak systems ride out underneath us along the boundary. Really don't want any huge amplkified systems without the PV in the right spot. As currently modeled it's too far N to want any big systems. Looks like by the end of the 1st week of Feb the pattern will be more conducive to bigger events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Gfs op was pretty poor (esp down the coast) with this little event tonight too. I'm really surprised people are taking it over the euro in a swfe type event. It's likely to get schooled pretty bad when all is said and done.who is taking it? I have not seen any forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Tip's met friend that he chats with Harv gives you 1-3/ Enjoy it That ain't happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Regardless, looks like a good period overall next week and beyond. It may Get dicey with lows possibly crossing SNE, but that's the price we pay or fun. Hopefully they stay south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I remember last week when the talk was no cutters and no warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I remember last week when the talk was no cutters and no warmth That talk was only in your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 hopefully May produces for you Hopefully it does, thanks Ginxy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I remember last week when the talk was no cutters and no warmthdelete all those spam tweets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That talk was only in your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Im good with a classic pattern even if I'm on the wrong side of the r/s line. Get the Northerners some snow I'm good with some mixing even some rain, I don't care just get it active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Next week looks pretty promising IMHO. I'd advise people to stop losing sleep over Saturday...its a garbage system. The upside is pretty low. Maybe 2 or 3 inches if it panned out, but the Euro ens are way NW. GFS the SE outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Im good with a classic pattern even if I'm on the wrong side of the r/s line. Get the Northerners some snow I'm good with some mixing even some rain, I don't care just get it active. Certainly could be a good run up for Feb vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That talk was only in your head.Other than Messenger.. The talk amongst the met community was the pattern looked great with no cutters. Overall it still does look good but the year of no snowpack continues and it's what's going to bring everyone's grades down on this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Next week looks pretty promising IMHO. I'd advise people to stop losing sleep over Saturday...its a garbage system. The upside is pretty low. Maybe 2 or 3 inches if it panned out, but the Euro ens are way NW. GFS the SE outlier. Yeah I have been carefully monitoring twitter for weather information and this guy big joe something or other says the best February since 1979 nationwide is incoming. I'm stoked now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nice euro run. SB eve system that cuts west of us has its torchiness minimalized. 2/3 system hits SNE with a light event which is a good spot for it right now. And then the 2/6 system is still on. Ens came in quite a bit colder too and have the 2/10 threat. Potentially active times. The ensembles almost have like a 3 day overrunning setup...that would be like Feb '94 or something. Obviously way out in clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Other than Messenger.. The talk amongst the met community was the pattern looked great with no cutters. Overall it still does look good but the year of no snowpack continues and it's what's going to bring everyone's grades down on this winter We are a "what have you done for me lately "society..... If February rocks and everybody gets in on the fun and winter ends phenomenally ....everyone will forget the cold and dryness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What does he mean by the Euro limits the torchiness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We are a "what have you done for me lately "society..... If February rocks and everybody gets in on the fun and winter ends phenomenally ....everyone will forget the cold and dryness.Man how spot on is this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We are a "what have you done for me lately "society..... If February rocks and everybody gets in on the fun and winter ends phenomenally ....everyone will forget the cold and dryness.I might be in the minority but I'd much rather have a bunch of 1-3 inch events with no warm rainers than 1 big storm. This will be the 4 th or 5th time this winter where we've wiped out snow cover up to NH border . I don't ever recall another winter quite like that. Hopefully next week works out and the final 28 days left of winter are good in Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Other than Messenger.. The talk amongst the met community was the pattern looked great with no cutters. Overall it still does look good but the year of no snowpack continues and it's what's going to bring everyone's grades down on this winter What appeared as a relaxing 10+ days ago isn't quite that....but more a few warmer systems breaking the cold like yesterday in the CP. Same will happen this weekend where it warms for maybe 24 hours. If it's the right 24 hours both days may be thrown off from a numbers standpoint. I haven't really said anything about February yet but I'm taking the under on the first few days. But by now you know I'm a believer in persistence to the point that we sometimes get it ruts. I probably won't change my opinion until the change for the better is actually demonstrated which is often too late. But I guess the question is similar to the euro vs gfs one we always have....better to jump the gun or slowly plod? Everyone is saying February is going to be legendary. Let's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Other than Messenger.. The talk amongst the met community was the pattern looked great with no cutters. Overall it still does look good but the year of no snowpack continues and it's what's going to bring everyone's grades down on this winter Garbage post. Nobody said that. Who would ever say no cutters when even the best winters have them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What does he mean by the Euro limits the torchiness?Euro is not a cutter where high DPs and high temperature are dragged North, it's really meh like Will said. The cutters gonna cut should be used when you get the blasting south flow. This on the Euro is a warm front followed by a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro is not a cutter where high DPs and high temperature are dragged North, it's really meh like Will said. The cutters gonna cut should be used when you get the blasting south flow. This on the Euro is a warm front followed by a cold front Provided this next one doesn't end up in canada the last two cutters have broken the pattern in that they weren't region wide torches. Let's just hope February doesn't turn into systems that miss or run warm or people will go jack Nicholson on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I might be in the minority but I'd much rather have a bunch of 1-3 inch events with no warm rainers than 1 big storm. This will be the 4 th or 5th time this winter where we've wiped out snow cover up to NH border . I don't ever recall another winter quite like that. Hopefully next week works out and the final 28 days left of winter are good in FebHey, it's all good to have different opinions... It just looks like a lot of folks on here are tired of the cold and dry ...the board feels like wake. On a side note, thank goodness you don't live in northern Vermont.... Because if your snowpack melted up there during any winter season we would have to put you in a straitjacket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There were posts like that . I won't go back and pull them, but they were there and I am certain I am not alone in remembering the posts. It's no big deal. As long as next week works out I certainly thought the talk was of winter Eden being reached after MLK, but then again I specifically remember Scott and will both indicating the potential for reloading at months end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Provided this next one doesn't end up in canada the last two cutters have broken the pattern in that they weren't region wide torches. Let's just hope February doesn't turn into systems that miss or run warm or people will go jack Nicholson on us. This next one won't be like those huge torches from earlier. It would probably be a sneaky 12-18 hour torch that is most noticeable along the CP...but whatever. I've never been that excited about Saturday even if it went south. It's not a very attractive system with high upside. The stuff behind it has much more upside and the CAD signal on it is much much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 There were posts like that . I won't go back and pull them, but they were there and I am certain I am not alone in remembering the posts. It's no big deal. As long as next week works out Will and myself have said for two weeks Now that we will start to see these storms Coming out of the Plains with a dropping PNA. You always run the risk of SWFE type stuff or even inside runners with no Blocking. Always a risk. Next week looks pretty good with the chance of multiple events from Monday to Monday. I don't know why these threads always turn into a weenie-fest of awful posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 For the record GEFS are snow for a better part of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Other than Messenger.. The talk amongst the met community was the pattern looked great with no cutters. Overall it still does look good but the year of no snowpack continues and it's what's going to bring everyone's grades down on this winter No. The mets always said you can always have a cutter but the pattern looks good. And it does and you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Provided this next one doesn't end up in canada the last two cutters have broken the pattern in that they weren't region wide torches. Let's just hope February doesn't turn into systems that miss or run warm or people will go jack Nicholson on us. I know this post will be met with some animosity, but it seems like we were all hearing how epic January and February looked....but a lot of us have one significant snow event at the onset of January to show for this, and the "epicosity" keeps getting punted forward. Now we're looking at almost halfway through February regarding the next "real" threat. 2/10? I'm almost ready to go 2010 on this season and just move on. Caveat: I understand that all we can do is predict "chances", and that they haven't worked out. Not an indictment on anyone's probalistic forecasting, but it is what it is. Not whining...I'm past that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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