free_man Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Fluttering snows or cutting lows? Discuss the upcoming February wx pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We start out more active than now and AOB temperature wise. I'd run with that and see what shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like first signs of block on LR EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like first signs of block on LR EURO. lol...we've had a block most of the winter. But in the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 lol...we've had a block most of the winter. But in the pacific. Yeah yeah, I mean NAO block, looks like a nice overrunning boundary would set up, with -PNA storms would be ejected out left and right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks good for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Feeling fairly good about it. As Coastalwx said "looks good for some fun" and I agree. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well the Euro looks horrible for the 2nd/3rd, unless you like rainers. It brings the sfc low from the lakes through the Saint Lawrence Valley. Definitely looking more cutter-like. Temps climb into the 40's all the way to the CPV here, through north-central NH through southern ME with 50's in Southern New England. There may be some front end overrunning snows before a changeover, but either way this would be a toaster bath scenario for NNE given the track record of this winter, and SNE people wouldn't be thrilled either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I wouldn't swallow a shot gun because the op run has that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I wouldn't swallow a shot gun because the op run has that solution. No, only if that solution is the one to verify . However it has consistently showed an overrunning snow to mixed-p to rain solution for that time frame. That is where the run I have access too ends so I can't see the pattern it tries to set up after, but it doesn't matter all that much that far out in a model anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well the Euro looks horrible for the 2nd/3rd, unless you like rainers. It brings the sfc low from the lakes through the Saint Lawrence Valley. Definitely looking more cutter-like. Temps climb into the 40's all the way to the CPV here, through north-central NH through southern ME with 50's in Southern New England. There may be some front end overrunning snows before a changeover, but either way this would be a toaster bath scenario for NNE given the track record of this winter, and SNE people wouldn't be thrilled either. I would not complain. If it snows, awesome, but if it doesn't, lets warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 No, only if that solution is the one to verify . However it has consistently showed an overrunning snow to mixed-p to rain solution for that time frame. That is where the run I have access too ends so I can't see the pattern it tries to set up after, but it doesn't matter all that much that far out in a model anyway. It's an outlier right now including this 12z gfs op. I wouldn't worry about snow to rain there. Even I it did mix, it would be a net gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It's an outlier right now including this 12z gfs op. I wouldn't worry about snow to rain there. Even I it did mix, it would be a net gain. Yes it is and the 12z GFS Is certainly colder and snowy with its solution for that time frame. It is also quite a bit slower with the timing for the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The thread title is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Check out the GEFS anomaly plot for h5. Astounding in the long range! Check out north of ak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Check out the GEFS anomaly plot for h5. Astounding in the long range! Check out north of ak. That's one of the more impressive runs yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I wouldn't swallow a shot gun because the op run has that solution. Yep, we shouldn't... but worth mentioning and keeping an eye on. Just like the rest of the guidance. Hopefully it threads the needle. That time frame has been flagged for a little while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yep, we shouldn't... but worth mentioning and keeping an eye on. Just like the rest of the guidance. Hopefully it threads the needle. That time frame has been flagged for a little while now. I wouldn't mind pushing it to Feb 4th as I will be trying to fly back to BTV on the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yep, we shouldn't... but worth mentioning and keeping an eye on. Just like the rest of the guidance. Hopefully it threads the needle. That time frame has been flagged for a little while now. Yup , i mean given the amount of cutters we've had this year, we shall see. Hopefully it gets squashed , are we in a situ where anything amped will cut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yup , i mean given the amount of cutters we've had this year, we shall see. Hopefully it gets squashed , are we in a situ where anything amped will cut? Yeah you hit the key here. Keep it flat and we have better odds I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I would not complain. If it snows, awesome, but if it doesn't, lets warm up. Heck ill a warm up as well, just not a wet one. Im goin back and forth on sne winter . part of me is afraid if i dont move to a snowier climate in a year or two (150"+") , soon i may rather be in fl for winter, aside from a KU or ski vaca up here. I need to start enjoying this winter more and skiing @ a good mtn will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Euro looks much colder this run for 2/4. This will likely be flip-flopping a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Wish this was d2 instead of d9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well this run is not warm. Sweet start to february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Wish this was d2 instead of d9-10. Im sure you'd approve 2/4 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This should make eyewall happier. Hopefully next Sunday works out because it's going to be awfully boring if not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 So it brings in the snow Saturday instead of SB now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Im sure you'd approve 2/4 on the EuroI just drooled on my ipad looking at 216-228hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Really hate having 2 discussion threads active at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 So it brings in the snow Saturday instead of SB now? Light event Saturday...maybe moderate for some. Bigger event 2/4. Super Bowl dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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