Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0z Euro looks like it goes crazy for Jan 31/Feb 1. 990-ish in SE CO at 96 hours...and then 992-ish into SE Canada at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The latest Euro is almost identical to the 12z Euro....snow changing to rain across SE Michigan/Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 EURO still the most aggressive with the phasing of that lobe of energy over the Canadian Prairies. Harry, what are the EURO ensembles showing? OP EURO's sucked enough this winter that I'd be willing to toss it if its own ensembles weren't on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 EURO still the most aggressive with the phasing of that lobe of energy over the Canadian Prairies. Harry, what are the EURO ensembles showing? OP EURO's sucked enough this winter that I'd be willing to toss it if its own ensembles weren't on board. I'm pretty sure the 12z ensembles were in agreement with the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Perfect track on the Euro for us, around 0.6" qpf which includes the Thursday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 0z Euro looks like it goes crazy for Jan 31/Feb 1. 990-ish in SE CO at 96 hours...and then 992-ish into SE Canada at 120 hours. Sub 1000mb over Cent. IL then around 994mb over the thumb of Michigan. "Wagons north" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 About .50" liquid again here on the Euro, most of that falling Friday night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm pretty sure the 12z ensembles were in agreement with the op run. hmmm...wait and see then I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sub 1000mb over Cent. IL then around 994mb over the thumb of Michigan. "Wagons north" Welp, so much for that one...for here. It gonna rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 EURO still the most aggressive with the phasing of that lobe of energy over the Canadian Prairies. Harry, what are the EURO ensembles showing? OP EURO's sucked enough this winter that I'd be willing to toss it if its own ensembles weren't on board. Slightly further SE but almost the same as the OP. 12z Euro Ensembles btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Pretty substantial shift south wrt the shortwave over Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sub 1000mb over Cent. IL then around 994mb over the thumb of Michigan. "Wagons north" Hard to think about rain at -10, but it already happened once this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 6z GEFS have a nice look for S On, SE michigan and northern ohio. Euro ensmbles seem to be in pretty good agreement with the OP euro. Has a track through S IL and up north of YYZ. One suite is going to have to cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 north remains the way to lean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 6z GEFS have a nice look for S On, SE michigan and northern ohio. Euro ensmbles seem to be in pretty good agreement with the OP euro. Has a track through S IL and up north of YYZ. One suite is going to have to cave. I'll take P002 for 500 Alex... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'll take P002 for 500 Alex... P010 was much sweeter on the 12z GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 P010 was much sweeter on the 12z GEFS... Oh yeah I would that one for 1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 north remains the way to lean I think the EURO ends up adjusting south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think the EURO ends up adjusting south some. I would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I would agree. Crappy performance overall and it's all by its lonesome in model land. Ensemble support is a bit of a flag but it had tons of that with the Dec 21-22 storm when it was showing a massive blizzard around D4-5. How'd that work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think the EURO ends up adjusting south some. The GFS already appeared to be taking a step towards the euro with the depiction of the surface low and I think it's only a matter of time before it takes another jump (as many of its ensembles already show). LOT also seems to be leaning north with mixing p-type up to I80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Crappy performance overall and it's all by its lonesome in model land. Ensemble support is a bit of a flag but it had tons of that with the Dec 21-22 storm when it was showing a massive blizzard around D4-5. How'd that work out? didn't that one cut even further NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 didn't that one cut even further NW? Yeah, but that was a different ul setup. My point was you can't give the EURO the same kind of deference that you used to. Like I said over the weekend, flattening s/w round the base of a still nearby PV doesn't scream to me north. But I sucked bag with my clipper prediction so maybe it's more of the same with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 didn't that one cut even further NW? Mutant storm. Upper level low tracked across MN/WI while the surface low tracking across Northern OH. EURO had it right at the surface, but failed miserably with handling the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah, but that was a different ul setup. My point was you can't give the EURO the same kind of deference that you used to. Like I said over the weekend, flattening s/w round the base of a still nearby PV doesn't scream to me north. But I sucked bag with my clipper prediction so maybe it's more of the same with this one. Every model shiit the bed on that one and it's probably not even worth talking about anymore. Anyways, i'm not giving the Euro too much credit but the support for a further north (than the OP GFS) scenario certainly isn't limited to the Euro or its ensembles. Either way, we are talking about an at most 3-6" event, so who really cares. 4th/5th storm is coming NW as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Every model shiit the bed on that one and it's probably not even worth talking about anymore. Anyways, i'm not giving the Euro too much credit but the support for a further north (than the OP GFS) scenario certainly isn't limited to the Euro or its ensembles. Either way, we are talking about an at most 3-6" event, so who really cares. 4th/5th storm is coming NW as well Ah, to be flush with snow and carefree. Could be YYZ's 2nd biggest fall of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Crappy performance overall and it's all by its lonesome in model land. Ensemble support is a bit of a flag but it had tons of that with the Dec 21-22 storm when it was showing a massive blizzard around D4-5. How'd that work out? Thats been the hard part ... the models adjustments have kinda been a pain in the butt!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 BTW, the setup over the next 1-2 weeks has some similiarities to the Dec. 21-22 mutant storm (biggest difference being a cold antecedent airmass). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'd also watch the trends with the lead wave thursday...NAM has been inching north a few runs in a row now and that would certainly impact the strength of the pressing high that IMO is being overdone on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think the EURO ends up adjusting south some. The GFS already appeared to be taking a step towards the euro with the depiction of the surface low and I think it's only a matter of time before it takes another jump (as many of its ensembles already show). LOT also seems to be leaning north with mixing p-type up to I80. I'm definitely leaning toward a Euro/GGEM blend. Still a ways to go in model land and the Euro hasn't performed all that well this winter, but it's been very consistent with this setup, while the operational GFS has been struggling with it. Not sure what would stop a track similar to the Euro/GEM assuming we get the wave to develop as currently depicted. It is possible the Euro is slightly too amped, but even a slightly less amped solution would likely bring mixing issues up to southern LOT. With the Euro verbatim, I'd be concerned for a repeat in our southern counties of the mess a few weeks ago in northern IL when the heavy rain at 35-40 degrees froze on the roads, sidewalks and parking lots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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