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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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EURO still the most aggressive with the phasing of that lobe of energy over the Canadian Prairies.

 

Harry, what are the EURO ensembles showing? OP EURO's sucked enough this winter that I'd be willing to toss it if its own ensembles weren't on board.

 

I'm pretty sure the 12z ensembles were in agreement with the op run. 

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EURO still the most aggressive with the phasing of that lobe of energy over the Canadian Prairies.

 

Harry, what are the EURO ensembles showing? OP EURO's sucked enough this winter that I'd be willing to toss it if its own ensembles weren't on board.

 

Slightly further SE but almost the same as the OP. 

 

12z Euro Ensembles btw. 

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I think the EURO ends up adjusting south some.

 

The GFS already appeared to be taking a step towards the euro with the depiction of the surface low and I think it's only a matter of time before it takes another jump (as many of its ensembles already show).  LOT also seems to be leaning north with mixing p-type up to I80.

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didn't that one cut even further NW?

 

Yeah, but that was a different ul setup. My point was you can't give the EURO the same kind of deference that you used to. Like I said over the weekend, flattening s/w round the base of a still nearby PV doesn't scream to me north. But I sucked bag with my clipper prediction so maybe it's more of the same with this one.

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Yeah, but that was a different ul setup. My point was you can't give the EURO the same kind of deference that you used to. Like I said over the weekend, flattening s/w round the base of a still nearby PV doesn't scream to me north. But I sucked bag with my clipper prediction so maybe it's more of the same with this one.

 

 

Every model shiit the bed on that one and it's probably not even worth talking about anymore. Anyways, i'm not giving the Euro too much credit but the support for a further north (than the OP GFS) scenario certainly isn't limited to the Euro or its ensembles.

 

Either way, we are talking about an at most 3-6" event, so who really cares.

 

4th/5th storm is coming NW as well :arrrg:

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Every model shiit the bed on that one and it's probably not even worth talking about anymore. Anyways, i'm not giving the Euro too much credit but the support for a further north (than the OP GFS) scenario certainly isn't limited to the Euro or its ensembles.

 

Either way, we are talking about an at most 3-6" event, so who really cares.

 

4th/5th storm is coming NW as well :arrrg:

 

Ah, to be flush with snow and carefree. Could be YYZ's 2nd biggest fall of the season.

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Crappy performance overall and it's all by its lonesome in model land. Ensemble support is a bit of a flag but it had tons of that with the Dec 21-22 storm when it was showing a massive blizzard around D4-5. How'd that work out? :lol:

Thats been the hard part ... the models adjustments have kinda been a pain in the butt!!

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I think the EURO ends up adjusting south some.

 

The GFS already appeared to be taking a step towards the euro with the depiction of the surface low and I think it's only a matter of time before it takes another jump (as many of its ensembles already show).  LOT also seems to be leaning north with mixing p-type up to I80.

I'm definitely leaning toward a Euro/GGEM blend. Still a ways to go in model land and the Euro hasn't performed all that well this winter, but it's been very consistent with this setup, while the operational GFS has been struggling with it. Not sure what would stop a track similar to the Euro/GEM assuming we get the wave to develop as currently depicted. It is possible the Euro is slightly too amped, but even a slightly less amped solution would likely bring mixing issues up to southern LOT.

With the Euro verbatim, I'd be concerned for a repeat in our southern counties of the mess a few weeks ago in northern IL when the heavy rain at 35-40 degrees froze on the roads, sidewalks and parking lots.

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