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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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the baroclinic zone and baby SE ridge has me leaning pretty hard towards more amplified models at this stage...especially if we see a slowing trend.

 

The fact that the PNA should be leaning negative by the end of the week and certainly the weekend doesn't hurt that speculation.  I am leaning towards another near-miss and nice Chicago hit on this one.

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The differences wrt shortwave handling on the backside of that trough are pretty substantial. GFS in particular handles the energy completely differently than the GGEM/ECMWF do at this point. Probably will end up with something in the middle meaning MDW to DTW get the best snow. 

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I think we're going to have some issues here even if the more amped solutions verify.  2 days of moderating temps is not enough to efficiently warm cold surfaces and would expect something similar (icing with 2m temps well above freezing) to what happened farther north a couple weeks ago. 

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I think we're going to have some issues here even if the more amped solutions verify.  2 days of moderating temps is not enough to efficiently warm cold surfaces and would expect something similar (icing with 2m temps well above freezing) to what happened farther north a couple weeks ago. 

 

 

i mentioned the same thing in the med range thread earlier today.

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I guess nearly all 12Z guidance says I was an idiot for thinking the baro zone will set up further south and keep the "waves" progressive and south (for this thread's systems)....

 

should I claim horrible call now?  or wait for another few runs of guidance?  :axe:

 

 

Hey, you have the GFS on your side but hard to think it won't start baby stepping north sometime soon.

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I guess nearly all 12Z guidance says I was an idiot for thinking the baro zone will set up further south and keep the "waves" progressive and south (for this thread's systems)....

 

should I claim horrible call now?  or wait for another few runs of guidance?  :axe:

Go big or go home. 

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