snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We will just be hitting 40" on the season with this most recent clipper. If we could summon some of the terrific Februaries of recent vintage, we might have a shot at 80, but most likely will settle within 5" of 60 on the season. I could see you guys pushing 70" assuming the stormier February pattern develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Last season, you better believe it. March was phenomenal. Not sure that means much with this season though. And I'm not complaining, because it's been stellar here so far this winter. Top notch. But the pattern is shifting to a more "northern favored" one, IMO. I don't see any snow events for us at all for the next week or two. Maybe some mixed bags, but probably a lot of rainers. Regression to the mean for LAF, quite quickly. Iol... cmon man.. becoming a cyclone clone, but he has a right to downplay anyting remotely looking good for him the last couple winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Last season, you better believe it. March was phenomenal. Not sure that means much with this season though. And I'm not complaining, because it's been stellar here so far this winter. Top notch. But the pattern is shifting to a more "northern favored" one, IMO. I don't see any snow events for us at all for the next week or two. Maybe some mixed bags, but probably a lot of rainers. Regression to the mean for LAF, quite quickly. Riding the GEM I see, tsk, tsk. I guess it's on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Eh, we'll probably see a period of a slightly -NAO, so might as well see it when we have a favorable PNA so we can lock in a semi-favorable storm track. meh.. slightly is fine i suppose if it has to be but good luck getting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 At least one of ORD or DTW get to 80". I'd through MKE into that as well but I'm actually not sure how they're doing. Slightly worse? 80" would be huge for ORD. Not sure they make that number, considering they'd have to get 30"+ more the rest of the way. MKE is going to have to really throw on the rally caps, but they can do March quite well too. DTW, yeah probably a shot. Nothing ever goes wrong for them seemingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Eh, we'll probably see a period of a slightly -NAO, so might as well see it when we have a favorable PNA so we can lock in a semi-favorable storm track. Anything other than NW flow is a favorable storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Anything other than NW flow is a favorable storm track. that's true but big storms have had a knack for missing us one direction or another.. lotta nickle and diming going on 3 winters now. Time to shuffle the cards and go back to a more early season pattern and maybe we get the nuts once again.. I still see a spread the wealth end to winter favoring the haves so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Iol... cmon man.. becoming a cyclone clone, but he has a right to downplay anyting remotely looking good for him the last couple winters. lol. For the most part I've done pretty well with my forecasts this winter. Had a few minor busts high and low, but overall pretty good IMHO. My forecasts probably come off as quite pessimistic at times, but that' because I usually ignore the weenie high-res models and tend to ride the more conservative Euro, with a hint of GFS. That combo usually does well, at least for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 that's true but big storms have had a knack for missing us one direction or another.. lotta nickle and diming going on 3 winters now. Time to shuffle the cards and go back to a more early season pattern and maybe we get the nuts once again.. I still see a spread the wealth end to winter favoring the haves so far. I would love to see something amplify over the SW but for now I'll take what we got which is something that has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 lol. For the most part I've done pretty well with my forecasts this winter. Had a few minor busts high and low, but overall pretty good IMHO. My forecasts probably come off as quite pessimistic at times, but that' because I usually ignore the weenie high-res models and tend to ride the more conservative Euro, with a hint of GFS. That combo usually does well, at least for this area. Yup you have been solid as always just bad luck with the snow. Things will change and you guys will be getting burried again... I'm just messing around with you.. You're a great asset to this board yr around and always enjoy your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I would love to see something amplify over the SW but for now I'll take what we got which is something that has potential. amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Anything other than NW flow is a favorable storm track. I'm talking locally, Noreasters aren't going to cut it haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro coming in pretty strong with the 31st storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It appears both storms on the GGEM produce generally snow/ice for us. 2nd storm especially shows a nice front-end thumping of snow courtesy of CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Decent storm on the Euro for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 ECMWF is onboard. 0.50"+ QPF from N. IL to DTW and then YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro coming in pretty strong with the 31st storm Some important differences in how it handles that piece of energy dropping out of the Canadian prairies compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 DON'T YOU DARE! +1. No need to leave the board again cause of one person who doesn't get the highs and lows that comes with being a true enthusiast. Yup you have been solid as always just bad luck with the snow. Things will change and you guys will be getting burried again... I'm just messing around with you.. You're a great asset to this board yr around and always enjoy your thoughts. Thanks mang, I appreciate the props. There's a lot of really good forecasters in this sub. We don't always agree on everything, but I think overall we do a great job with forecasting in sort of a community effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ECMWF is onboard. 0.50"+ QPF from N. IL to DTW and then YYZ. Mixing issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Decent inverted trough feature, followed by slp developing along the front over IN....progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ECMWF is onboard. 0.50"+ QPF from N. IL to DTW and then YYZ. lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 At least one of ORD or DTW get to 80". I'd throw MKE into that as well but I'm actually not sure how they're doing. Slightly worse? I will take the over on ORD and DTW both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z EURO almost seems like the 18z GFS solution from 1/25/13. It's hard to tell from those 24hr frames... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Mixing issues? Yep. DTW and YYZ included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 80" would be huge for ORD. Not sure they make that number, considering they'd have to get 30"+ more the rest of the way. MKE is going to have to really throw on the rally caps, but they can do March quite well too. DTW, yeah probably a shot. Nothing ever goes wrong for them seemingly. Severe weather does, Andyhb would lose his mind if he lived here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Don't know about Euro precip amounts but looks like we'd run the gamut on precip type here with that progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yep. DTW and YYZ included. Ah, there's always a catch. Oh well, lots of time to work on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 +1. No need to leave the board again cause of one person who doesn't get the highs and lows that comes with being a true enthusiast. Thanks mang, I appreciate the props. There's a lot of really good forecasters in this sub. We don't always agree on everything, but I think overall we do a great job with forecasting in sort of a community effort. Perfectly said on both post.. Great community sub-forum. We have many young and veteran hobbyist here who could step in to a NWS office and it wouldn't miss a beat if not for just their enthusiast for all weather.. Weenies, even a terrible one like me make the forum go round and round for good or bad yet at the end of the night we all respect each other no matter if words that we would sure love to take back happen sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yep. DTW and YYZ included. Not to get too detailed in a specific run of a model, but the mixing would probably come at the tail end of the event looking at the thermodynamic profile. It would be close from the middle part of the event and beyond. Also just to clarify what you are talking about for others, mixing would mean sleet or freezing rain, this wouldn't go over to plain rain here. Temperatures remain 30 or below for the event, normally I wouldn't wish for a mixed event but something to put a lid on the blowing and drifting of the snow would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 OFF TOPIC- But holy cow that storm at hour 190+ on the Euro ... Oo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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