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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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It looks like Northern Illinois will be adding to the "glacier" nicely with this one. Like most storms this winter it looks like I get screwed again in the Peoria area. I better buy several cans of windshield deicer before they sell out. I am thinking 1-2 inches of snow and some sleet for me along with .25-.4 inches of freezing rain.

 

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he should...are you kidding me....Detroit poster bitching about ANYTHING???     Josh is probably busy right now frantically running snow pack preservation calculations.

 

 

Considering EVERYONES averages ( this includes yours )  and where we are nobody should really be complaining.. But yeah nobody is ever happy to get a slop fest or rain.

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Considering EVERYONES averages ( this includes yours )  and where we are nobody should really be complaining.. But yeah nobody is ever happy to get a slop fest or rain.

 

PB's whole argument is flawed.  You read his post and he makes it sound like Detroit got to their record snowfall totals with a bunch of nickel and dimes.  huh? :huh:

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Izzi update

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
848 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
848 PM CST

NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID BACK OFF ON
POPS FRIDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...JUST MAINTAINING SOME
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA
PRIOR TO NOON. THE 00Z WRF-NAM HAS COME IN AND BACKED OFF ON QPF
WITH THE LEAD WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
OPTING TO DEFER ANY CHANGES THERE TO THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT SO THAT
THEY CAN ACCESS THE FULL SUITE OF EVENING GUIDANCE. ONE TREND THAT
DOES SEEM TO BE SHOWING UP IN ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK. THE 00Z WRF-NAM
IS TRACKING NEARLY AS FAR NORTH OF THE 12Z ECMWF WITH A SFC LOW
GOING FROM NEAR STL TO NEAR GYY...WHICH IF IT VERIFIED WOULD
FAVOR THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETTING UP FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN
IN THE CURRENT GRIDS SUGGEST...PERHAPS FROM THE NORTHERN CHICAGO
SUBURBS WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO NC IL. THAT FARTHER NORTHWARD TRACK
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A RESPECTABLE ICE
EVENT OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

IZZI

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The 00z 4km/hi-res NAM is much better for snow for the Toronto area compared to the regular 00z NAM run. Over 0.50" QPF. With surface temps around freezing, it's going to be a heavy, wet snow.

 

Yeah, it's also not as far north with the sfc low track. I hadn't realized that the 4km NAM was a distinct model from the WRF-NAM (thought it was just a higher resolution).

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Well, I figure if I can shrug off another excruciating miss given what an abysmal snowhole Toronto has been this winter, anybody on pace for 80-100" can.

 

If we get rain from this, I'm taking full control of the complaint thread. I cant believe this bullsh!t! You get a nice storm for once and rain is in the f*cking picture. You probably have the same amount of frustration and anger as I do. The fact that we haven't seen a decent winter since 08-09 says alot. 

 

I'm done. Wake me up when it snows. 

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Well let him have at it. :lol:

 

He's made it very clear over the years that he's a firm snowcover lover. With the record-breaking siberian airmass and frequent nickel and dime events, this has practically been his textbook type of winter. As long as he has some type of snow on the ground all winter with flakes flying, he's a happy camper and won't care what type of snowstorms we get.  

 

We will never see eye-to-eye when it comes to this, which is fine. 

 

(ok, exiting thread for real now)

Its ironic that you say I dont care what kind of snowstorms we get...because its YOU who doesnt care. You will always find something to complain about with every storm. You have a list: flake-size, rates, ratios, modeled qpf, official forecast, total snowstorm amount, what surrounding areas got, duration of the storm...spin the wheel if you must, but there will never be a storm that you cant find something wrong with. Four times this winter already DTW has had in excess of 6"+ in a 24-hour period, including snowstorms of 7.7", 11.1", and 10.6", and you found something to b*tch about with every one. The f6 for Jan for DTW looks like something out of a snowbelt, but you sure will find something to complain about every time. And now that a storm is FINALLY missing us...a storm that will NOT have epic amounts...all of a sudden it is THE storm to have!

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PB's whole argument is flawed.  You read his post and he makes it sound like Detroit got to their record snowfall totals with a bunch of nickel and dimes.  huh? :huh:

Yup. We have nickled and dimed our way to a record January. I believe CMH did the same in Dec 2000? Correct. LOL. Nickel and dime, nickel and dime, few pennies here and there...

 

STATION:   DETROIT MI                                          MONTH:     JANUARY                                          YEAR:      2014                                          LATITUDE:   42 13 N                                          LONGITUDE:  83 20 W  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND================================================================================1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MINDY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR================================================================================ 1  17  11  14 -12  51   0 0.30  6.4    3  8.5 16  20   M    M  10 1      28  80 2  15   4  10 -16  55   0 0.16  4.4   10 15.7 25 360   M    M  10 19     32 360 3  12  -5   4 -22  61   0    T    T    8  8.7 17 170   M    M   4        23 160 4  31  10  21  -5  44   0    T    T    8 14.2 29 200   M    M   7        36 200 5  32  20  26   0  39   0 0.90 10.2    8  7.2 23 320   M    M  10 12     30 320 6  20 -14   3 -23  62   0 0.06  0.8   16 21.2 32 230   M    M   8 189    38 230 7  -1 -14  -7 -33  72   0 0.00  0.0   16 18.9 26 210   M    M   4        32 220 8  16  -7   5 -21  60   0    T    T   15  7.3 16 210   M    M   8 18     17 210 9  22  -4   9 -17  56   0 0.03  0.6   14  2.3  8 120   M    M   8 18     14 35010  38  22  30   4  35   0 0.35  0.1   13  6.0 13 170   M    M  10 12     16 11011  42  34  38  12  27   0 0.23  0.0   10 12.8 28 230   M    M  10 12     33 25012  37  33  35  10  30   0 0.00  0.0    7 13.2 21 200   M    M   8        29 26013  45  34  40  15  25   0 0.00  0.0    5 12.3 22 200   M    M   7        29 20014  39  25  32   7  33   0    T    T    4  9.6 29 210   M    M   7 8      37 22015  31  21  26   1  39   0    T    T    4 15.7 29 200   M    M  10        38 20016  28  20  24  -1  41   0 0.24  3.1    4 15.1 22 190   M    M  10 12     29 16017  32  18  25   0  40   0 0.03  0.5    6 10.2 20 210   M    M  10 1      23 23018  19   6  13 -12  52   0    T  0.3    6  8.0 17 250   M    M   9 1      22 26019  28  15  22  -3  43   0    T    T    6 14.9 35 220   M    M   9 18     44 23020  31  13  22  -3  43   0 0.05  1.4    5  9.6 18 330   M    M  10 16     24 34021  13   0   7 -18  58   0    T    T    6  9.0 18 350   M    M   7        23 35022  11  -6   3 -22  62   0 0.05  1.1    6  6.6 15 190   M    M   8 18     17 19023  16   1   9 -16  56   0 0.01  0.3    7  7.7 15 280   M    M   7 18     23 29024  17  -2   8 -17  57   0 0.01  0.3    6 21.8 38 200   M    M   9 8      49 19025  28   6  17  -8  48   0 0.14  2.4    7 16.0 31 200   M    M  10 19     41 20026  28   2  15 -10  50   0 0.16  3.1    8 10.0 20 220   M    M   9 1      24 22027  27  -4  12 -13  53   0 0.14  3.3   13 15.2 28 290   M    M   7 19     43 28028   6 -10  -2 -28  67   0 0.00  0.0   12 13.3 22 210   M    M   3        25 21029  16  -3   7 -19  58   0 0.00  0.0   11 15.7 24 220   M    M   2        30 220================================================================================SM  696  226      1417   0  2.86    38.3 346.7          M      231

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If we get rain from this, I'm taking full control of the complaint thread. I cant believe this bullsh!t! You get a nice storm for once and rain is in the f*cking picture. You probably have the same amount of frustration and anger as I do. The fact that we haven't seen a decent winter since 08-09 says alot. 

 

I'm done. Wake me up when it snows. 

 

Well, we're most likely going to see SOME rain from this. Still shouldn't preclude an enjoyable initial 2-4/3-5 type front-end thump (assuming the NW trend has maxed out, which I think it has).

 

Honestly, I'm at peace with it. Once it looked like my suppression idea wasn't going to work out, I knew in my heart of hearts that rain/mixing/dryslot issues would end up being the main culprit. Didn't mention it because it was a gut feeling rather than scientifically based. Just the way we roll and there's nothing you or I can do about it.

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Yup. We have nickled and dimed our way to a record January. I believe CMH did the same in Dec 2000? Correct. LOL. Nickel and dime, nickel and dime, few pennies here and there...

 

STATION:   DETROIT MI                                          MONTH:     JANUARY                                          YEAR:      2014                                          LATITUDE:   42 13 N                                          LONGITUDE:  83 20 W  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND================================================================================1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MINDY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR================================================================================ 1  17  11  14 -12  51   0 0.30  6.4    3  8.5 16  20   M    M  10 1      28  80 2  15   4  10 -16  55   0 0.16  4.4   10 15.7 25 360   M    M  10 19     32 360 3  12  -5   4 -22  61   0    T    T    8  8.7 17 170   M    M   4        23 160 4  31  10  21  -5  44   0    T    T    8 14.2 29 200   M    M   7        36 200 5  32  20  26   0  39   0 0.90 10.2    8  7.2 23 320   M    M  10 12     30 320 6  20 -14   3 -23  62   0 0.06  0.8   16 21.2 32 230   M    M   8 189    38 230 7  -1 -14  -7 -33  72   0 0.00  0.0   16 18.9 26 210   M    M   4        32 220 8  16  -7   5 -21  60   0    T    T   15  7.3 16 210   M    M   8 18     17 210 9  22  -4   9 -17  56   0 0.03  0.6   14  2.3  8 120   M    M   8 18     14 35010  38  22  30   4  35   0 0.35  0.1   13  6.0 13 170   M    M  10 12     16 11011  42  34  38  12  27   0 0.23  0.0   10 12.8 28 230   M    M  10 12     33 25012  37  33  35  10  30   0 0.00  0.0    7 13.2 21 200   M    M   8        29 26013  45  34  40  15  25   0 0.00  0.0    5 12.3 22 200   M    M   7        29 20014  39  25  32   7  33   0    T    T    4  9.6 29 210   M    M   7 8      37 22015  31  21  26   1  39   0    T    T    4 15.7 29 200   M    M  10        38 20016  28  20  24  -1  41   0 0.24  3.1    4 15.1 22 190   M    M  10 12     29 16017  32  18  25   0  40   0 0.03  0.5    6 10.2 20 210   M    M  10 1      23 23018  19   6  13 -12  52   0    T  0.3    6  8.0 17 250   M    M   9 1      22 26019  28  15  22  -3  43   0    T    T    6 14.9 35 220   M    M   9 18     44 23020  31  13  22  -3  43   0 0.05  1.4    5  9.6 18 330   M    M  10 16     24 34021  13   0   7 -18  58   0    T    T    6  9.0 18 350   M    M   7        23 35022  11  -6   3 -22  62   0 0.05  1.1    6  6.6 15 190   M    M   8 18     17 19023  16   1   9 -16  56   0 0.01  0.3    7  7.7 15 280   M    M   7 18     23 29024  17  -2   8 -17  57   0 0.01  0.3    6 21.8 38 200   M    M   9 8      49 19025  28   6  17  -8  48   0 0.14  2.4    7 16.0 31 200   M    M  10 19     41 20026  28   2  15 -10  50   0 0.16  3.1    8 10.0 20 220   M    M   9 1      24 22027  27  -4  12 -13  53   0 0.14  3.3   13 15.2 28 290   M    M   7 19     43 28028   6 -10  -2 -28  67   0 0.00  0.0   12 13.3 22 210   M    M   3        25 21029  16  -3   7 -19  58   0 0.00  0.0   11 15.7 24 220   M    M   2        30 220================================================================================SM  696  226      1417   0  2.86    38.3 346.7          M      231

 

has to be under 3" in my eyes to be considered a nickel or dime.   You guys had (6) 3+ snowfalls....damn nice

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Well, we're most likely going to see SOME rain from this. Still shouldn't preclude an enjoyable initial 2-4/3-5 type front-end thump (assuming the NW trend has maxed out, which I think it has).

 

Honestly, I'm at peace with it. Once it looked like my suppression idea wasn't going to work out, I knew in my heart of hearts that rain/mixing/dryslot issues would end up being the main culprit. Didn't mention it because it was a gut feeling rather than scientifically based. Just the way we roll and there's nothing you or I can do about it.

Good post. According to the "Buffalo News" paper, which lists snowfall totals for the season thus far, Toronto is at a little over 31" for the season. Given we average about 43" and we're going into an active pattern, I think it highly likely we'll make or exceed our annual snowfall. Hardly a crappy winter.

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Good post. According to the "Buffalo News" paper, which lists snowfall totals for the season thus far, Toronto is at a little over 31" for the season. Given we average about 43" and we're going into an active pattern, I think it highly likely we'll make or exceed our annual snowfall. Hardly a crappy winter.

 

Downtown Toronto's at 32.1" for the season but they average 47.8". Still above average though.

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PB's whole argument is flawed.  You read his post and he makes it sound like Detroit got to their record snowfall totals with a bunch of nickel and dimes.  huh? :huh:

 

He is more frustrated with just missing the big ones ( over a foot )  which Detroit has unlike every other spot in this forum since who knows when. While Detroit/Josh has been a magnet of sorts with a ton of events all the big ones of over a foot keep missing there. They have a very tough climo though with such events as that post showed by Josh which listed their biggest events. Thus yeah his expectations could use a little adjusting i suppose. Still even you know how frustrating it can be just missing such storms. I am happy on that front thanks to Jan 5/6 but still not fun sweating the mixed/rain crap. Never is.

 

I still think the models are going a bit overboard with this track this far nw but i have been known to be wrong before. So who knows.

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Well, we're most likely going to see SOME rain from this. Still shouldn't preclude an enjoyable initial 2-4/3-5 type front-end thump (assuming the NW trend has maxed out, which I think it has).

 

Honestly, I'm at peace with it. Once it looked like my suppression idea wasn't going to work out, I knew in my heart of hearts that rain/mixing/dryslot issues would end up being the main culprit. Didn't mention it because it was a gut feeling rather than scientifically based. Just the way we roll and there's nothing you or I can do about it.

 

We shall see if the front-end thump snow materializes. I'm doubtful of everything! Heck, why even track storms when in the end your going to get a slap in the face while everyone around you is rejoicing how awesome the storm was. Its painful and frustrating.  

 

I'm hoping we can work in some CAD but its losing confidence each run at a time. We've seen from previous storms, the warm bias most models have when it comes to storms. In this case, temperatures arent very far from the freezing line and theirs still hope for some marginal error. 

 

Idk man. I lost all my optimism now for everything! 

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