ilstormchaser Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It looks like Northern Illinois will be adding to the "glacier" nicely with this one. Like most storms this winter it looks like I get screwed again in the Peoria area. I better buy several cans of windshield deicer before they sell out. I am thinking 1-2 inches of snow and some sleet for me along with .25-.4 inches of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Skilling going with widespread 5-10" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 he should...are you kidding me....Detroit poster bitching about ANYTHING??? Josh is probably busy right now frantically running snow pack preservation calculations. Considering EVERYONES averages ( this includes yours ) and where we are nobody should really be complaining.. But yeah nobody is ever happy to get a slop fest or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 00z 4km/hi-res NAM is much better for snow for the Toronto area compared to the regular 00z NAM run. Over 0.50" QPF. With surface temps around freezing, it's going to be a heavy, wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Considering EVERYONES averages ( this includes yours ) and where we are nobody should really be complaining.. But yeah nobody is ever happy to get a slop fest or rain. PB's whole argument is flawed. You read his post and he makes it sound like Detroit got to their record snowfall totals with a bunch of nickel and dimes. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Izzi update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL848 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014.DISCUSSION...848 PM CSTNO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID BACK OFF ONPOPS FRIDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...JUST MAINTAINING SOMELOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWAPRIOR TO NOON. THE 00Z WRF-NAM HAS COME IN AND BACKED OFF ON QPFWITH THE LEAD WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUTOPTING TO DEFER ANY CHANGES THERE TO THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT SO THATTHEY CAN ACCESS THE FULL SUITE OF EVENING GUIDANCE. ONE TREND THATDOES SEEM TO BE SHOWING UP IN ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST24 HOURS HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK. THE 00Z WRF-NAMIS TRACKING NEARLY AS FAR NORTH OF THE 12Z ECMWF WITH A SFC LOWGOING FROM NEAR STL TO NEAR GYY...WHICH IF IT VERIFIED WOULDFAVOR THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETTING UP FARTHER NORTHWEST THANIN THE CURRENT GRIDS SUGGEST...PERHAPS FROM THE NORTHERN CHICAGOSUBURBS WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO NC IL. THAT FARTHER NORTHWARD TRACKWOULD ALSO SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OFMIXED PRECIPITATION MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE CHICAGO METROAREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A RESPECTABLE ICEEVENT OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 00z 4km/hi-res NAM is much better for snow for the Toronto area compared to the regular 00z NAM run. Over 0.50" QPF. With surface temps around freezing, it's going to be a heavy, wet snow. Yeah, it's also not as far north with the sfc low track. I hadn't realized that the 4km NAM was a distinct model from the WRF-NAM (thought it was just a higher resolution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well, I figure if I can shrug off another excruciating miss given what an abysmal snowhole Toronto has been this winter, anybody on pace for 80-100" can. If we get rain from this, I'm taking full control of the complaint thread. I cant believe this bullsh!t! You get a nice storm for once and rain is in the f*cking picture. You probably have the same amount of frustration and anger as I do. The fact that we haven't seen a decent winter since 08-09 says alot. I'm done. Wake me up when it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well let him have at it. He's made it very clear over the years that he's a firm snowcover lover. With the record-breaking siberian airmass and frequent nickel and dime events, this has practically been his textbook type of winter. As long as he has some type of snow on the ground all winter with flakes flying, he's a happy camper and won't care what type of snowstorms we get. We will never see eye-to-eye when it comes to this, which is fine. (ok, exiting thread for real now) Its ironic that you say I dont care what kind of snowstorms we get...because its YOU who doesnt care. You will always find something to complain about with every storm. You have a list: flake-size, rates, ratios, modeled qpf, official forecast, total snowstorm amount, what surrounding areas got, duration of the storm...spin the wheel if you must, but there will never be a storm that you cant find something wrong with. Four times this winter already DTW has had in excess of 6"+ in a 24-hour period, including snowstorms of 7.7", 11.1", and 10.6", and you found something to b*tch about with every one. The f6 for Jan for DTW looks like something out of a snowbelt, but you sure will find something to complain about every time. And now that a storm is FINALLY missing us...a storm that will NOT have epic amounts...all of a sudden it is THE storm to have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 PB's whole argument is flawed. You read his post and he makes it sound like Detroit got to their record snowfall totals with a bunch of nickel and dimes. huh? Anything less than 18" is a nickel/dime in Powerball's eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It did a great job last week as well with the clipper train. It's really been on a roll. It has been doing better than most models since Dec, at least locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, it's also not as far north with the sfc low track. I hadn't realized that the 4km NAM was a distinct model from the WRF-NAM (thought it was just a higher resolution).Heres a closer look at snowfall totals from the hires nam. Keeping hope alive... just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 PB's whole argument is flawed. You read his post and he makes it sound like Detroit got to their record snowfall totals with a bunch of nickel and dimes. huh? Yup. We have nickled and dimed our way to a record January. I believe CMH did the same in Dec 2000? Correct. LOL. Nickel and dime, nickel and dime, few pennies here and there... STATION: DETROIT MI MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2014 LATITUDE: 42 13 N LONGITUDE: 83 20 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND================================================================================1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MINDY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR================================================================================ 1 17 11 14 -12 51 0 0.30 6.4 3 8.5 16 20 M M 10 1 28 80 2 15 4 10 -16 55 0 0.16 4.4 10 15.7 25 360 M M 10 19 32 360 3 12 -5 4 -22 61 0 T T 8 8.7 17 170 M M 4 23 160 4 31 10 21 -5 44 0 T T 8 14.2 29 200 M M 7 36 200 5 32 20 26 0 39 0 0.90 10.2 8 7.2 23 320 M M 10 12 30 320 6 20 -14 3 -23 62 0 0.06 0.8 16 21.2 32 230 M M 8 189 38 230 7 -1 -14 -7 -33 72 0 0.00 0.0 16 18.9 26 210 M M 4 32 220 8 16 -7 5 -21 60 0 T T 15 7.3 16 210 M M 8 18 17 210 9 22 -4 9 -17 56 0 0.03 0.6 14 2.3 8 120 M M 8 18 14 35010 38 22 30 4 35 0 0.35 0.1 13 6.0 13 170 M M 10 12 16 11011 42 34 38 12 27 0 0.23 0.0 10 12.8 28 230 M M 10 12 33 25012 37 33 35 10 30 0 0.00 0.0 7 13.2 21 200 M M 8 29 26013 45 34 40 15 25 0 0.00 0.0 5 12.3 22 200 M M 7 29 20014 39 25 32 7 33 0 T T 4 9.6 29 210 M M 7 8 37 22015 31 21 26 1 39 0 T T 4 15.7 29 200 M M 10 38 20016 28 20 24 -1 41 0 0.24 3.1 4 15.1 22 190 M M 10 12 29 16017 32 18 25 0 40 0 0.03 0.5 6 10.2 20 210 M M 10 1 23 23018 19 6 13 -12 52 0 T 0.3 6 8.0 17 250 M M 9 1 22 26019 28 15 22 -3 43 0 T T 6 14.9 35 220 M M 9 18 44 23020 31 13 22 -3 43 0 0.05 1.4 5 9.6 18 330 M M 10 16 24 34021 13 0 7 -18 58 0 T T 6 9.0 18 350 M M 7 23 35022 11 -6 3 -22 62 0 0.05 1.1 6 6.6 15 190 M M 8 18 17 19023 16 1 9 -16 56 0 0.01 0.3 7 7.7 15 280 M M 7 18 23 29024 17 -2 8 -17 57 0 0.01 0.3 6 21.8 38 200 M M 9 8 49 19025 28 6 17 -8 48 0 0.14 2.4 7 16.0 31 200 M M 10 19 41 20026 28 2 15 -10 50 0 0.16 3.1 8 10.0 20 220 M M 9 1 24 22027 27 -4 12 -13 53 0 0.14 3.3 13 15.2 28 290 M M 7 19 43 28028 6 -10 -2 -28 67 0 0.00 0.0 12 13.3 22 210 M M 3 25 21029 16 -3 7 -19 58 0 0.00 0.0 11 15.7 24 220 M M 2 30 220================================================================================SM 696 226 1417 0 2.86 38.3 346.7 M 231 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Maybe twc will score a coupe. Has dtw all snow and has 5-8 stripe from Chicago ene to Detroit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If we get rain from this, I'm taking full control of the complaint thread. I cant believe this bullsh!t! You get a nice storm for once and rain is in the f*cking picture. You probably have the same amount of frustration and anger as I do. The fact that we haven't seen a decent winter since 08-09 says alot. I'm done. Wake me up when it snows. Well, we're most likely going to see SOME rain from this. Still shouldn't preclude an enjoyable initial 2-4/3-5 type front-end thump (assuming the NW trend has maxed out, which I think it has). Honestly, I'm at peace with it. Once it looked like my suppression idea wasn't going to work out, I knew in my heart of hearts that rain/mixing/dryslot issues would end up being the main culprit. Didn't mention it because it was a gut feeling rather than scientifically based. Just the way we roll and there's nothing you or I can do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yup. We have nickled and dimed our way to a record January. I believe CMH did the same in Dec 2000? Correct. LOL. Nickel and dime, nickel and dime, few pennies here and there... STATION: DETROIT MI MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2014 LATITUDE: 42 13 N LONGITUDE: 83 20 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND================================================================================1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MINDY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR================================================================================ 1 17 11 14 -12 51 0 0.30 6.4 3 8.5 16 20 M M 10 1 28 80 2 15 4 10 -16 55 0 0.16 4.4 10 15.7 25 360 M M 10 19 32 360 3 12 -5 4 -22 61 0 T T 8 8.7 17 170 M M 4 23 160 4 31 10 21 -5 44 0 T T 8 14.2 29 200 M M 7 36 200 5 32 20 26 0 39 0 0.90 10.2 8 7.2 23 320 M M 10 12 30 320 6 20 -14 3 -23 62 0 0.06 0.8 16 21.2 32 230 M M 8 189 38 230 7 -1 -14 -7 -33 72 0 0.00 0.0 16 18.9 26 210 M M 4 32 220 8 16 -7 5 -21 60 0 T T 15 7.3 16 210 M M 8 18 17 210 9 22 -4 9 -17 56 0 0.03 0.6 14 2.3 8 120 M M 8 18 14 35010 38 22 30 4 35 0 0.35 0.1 13 6.0 13 170 M M 10 12 16 11011 42 34 38 12 27 0 0.23 0.0 10 12.8 28 230 M M 10 12 33 25012 37 33 35 10 30 0 0.00 0.0 7 13.2 21 200 M M 8 29 26013 45 34 40 15 25 0 0.00 0.0 5 12.3 22 200 M M 7 29 20014 39 25 32 7 33 0 T T 4 9.6 29 210 M M 7 8 37 22015 31 21 26 1 39 0 T T 4 15.7 29 200 M M 10 38 20016 28 20 24 -1 41 0 0.24 3.1 4 15.1 22 190 M M 10 12 29 16017 32 18 25 0 40 0 0.03 0.5 6 10.2 20 210 M M 10 1 23 23018 19 6 13 -12 52 0 T 0.3 6 8.0 17 250 M M 9 1 22 26019 28 15 22 -3 43 0 T T 6 14.9 35 220 M M 9 18 44 23020 31 13 22 -3 43 0 0.05 1.4 5 9.6 18 330 M M 10 16 24 34021 13 0 7 -18 58 0 T T 6 9.0 18 350 M M 7 23 35022 11 -6 3 -22 62 0 0.05 1.1 6 6.6 15 190 M M 8 18 17 19023 16 1 9 -16 56 0 0.01 0.3 7 7.7 15 280 M M 7 18 23 29024 17 -2 8 -17 57 0 0.01 0.3 6 21.8 38 200 M M 9 8 49 19025 28 6 17 -8 48 0 0.14 2.4 7 16.0 31 200 M M 10 19 41 20026 28 2 15 -10 50 0 0.16 3.1 8 10.0 20 220 M M 9 1 24 22027 27 -4 12 -13 53 0 0.14 3.3 13 15.2 28 290 M M 7 19 43 28028 6 -10 -2 -28 67 0 0.00 0.0 12 13.3 22 210 M M 3 25 21029 16 -3 7 -19 58 0 0.00 0.0 11 15.7 24 220 M M 2 30 220================================================================================SM 696 226 1417 0 2.86 38.3 346.7 M 231 has to be under 3" in my eyes to be considered a nickel or dime. You guys had (6) 3+ snowfalls....damn nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z RGEM still kinda bullish with a changeover on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 RGEM = NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well, we're most likely going to see SOME rain from this. Still shouldn't preclude an enjoyable initial 2-4/3-5 type front-end thump (assuming the NW trend has maxed out, which I think it has). Honestly, I'm at peace with it. Once it looked like my suppression idea wasn't going to work out, I knew in my heart of hearts that rain/mixing/dryslot issues would end up being the main culprit. Didn't mention it because it was a gut feeling rather than scientifically based. Just the way we roll and there's nothing you or I can do about it. Good post. According to the "Buffalo News" paper, which lists snowfall totals for the season thus far, Toronto is at a little over 31" for the season. Given we average about 43" and we're going into an active pattern, I think it highly likely we'll make or exceed our annual snowfall. Hardly a crappy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z RGEM still kinda bullish with a changeover on the backside. Meh...punt...lol...sigh. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Good post. According to the "Buffalo News" paper, which lists snowfall totals for the season thus far, Toronto is at a little over 31" for the season. Given we average about 43" and we're going into an active pattern, I think it highly likely we'll make or exceed our annual snowfall. Hardly a crappy winter. Downtown Toronto's at 32.1" for the season but they average 47.8". Still above average though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 PB's whole argument is flawed. You read his post and he makes it sound like Detroit got to their record snowfall totals with a bunch of nickel and dimes. huh? He is more frustrated with just missing the big ones ( over a foot ) which Detroit has unlike every other spot in this forum since who knows when. While Detroit/Josh has been a magnet of sorts with a ton of events all the big ones of over a foot keep missing there. They have a very tough climo though with such events as that post showed by Josh which listed their biggest events. Thus yeah his expectations could use a little adjusting i suppose. Still even you know how frustrating it can be just missing such storms. I am happy on that front thanks to Jan 5/6 but still not fun sweating the mixed/rain crap. Never is. I still think the models are going a bit overboard with this track this far nw but i have been known to be wrong before. So who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 No one from Detroit should be complaining, and region wide, unless you are named Cyclone77 or Hawkeye you have no room to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Meh...punt...lol...sigh. Not happening. NAM sorta lost it on recent runs but it's been well signaled. Probably going to be one of those nowcast things since it wouldn't last very long anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM sorta lost it on recent runs but it's been well signaled. Probably going to be one of those nowcast things since it wouldn't last very long anyway. Maybe we'll get a T when all is said and done. Something to root for I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 No one from Detroit should be complaining, and region wide, unless you are named Cyclone77 or Hawkeye you have no room to complain. Make a little room for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Make a little room for me Toronto is above normal for the year thus far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well, we're most likely going to see SOME rain from this. Still shouldn't preclude an enjoyable initial 2-4/3-5 type front-end thump (assuming the NW trend has maxed out, which I think it has). Honestly, I'm at peace with it. Once it looked like my suppression idea wasn't going to work out, I knew in my heart of hearts that rain/mixing/dryslot issues would end up being the main culprit. Didn't mention it because it was a gut feeling rather than scientifically based. Just the way we roll and there's nothing you or I can do about it. We shall see if the front-end thump snow materializes. I'm doubtful of everything! Heck, why even track storms when in the end your going to get a slap in the face while everyone around you is rejoicing how awesome the storm was. Its painful and frustrating. I'm hoping we can work in some CAD but its losing confidence each run at a time. We've seen from previous storms, the warm bias most models have when it comes to storms. In this case, temperatures arent very far from the freezing line and theirs still hope for some marginal error. Idk man. I lost all my optimism now for everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Toronto is above normal for the year thus far? Yeah but only slightly. All in part due to Nickle and Dime events. Nothing exciting to see here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Verbatim, this run shows everything falling as freezing/frozen in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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