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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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So the GGEM of all models may manage to pull a coupe. Amazing.

 

Yet, I bet going forward if it shows monster solutions with the 3rd-5th storm, there's a 99.9% chance it won't verify and it will trend weaker/SE to whatever the crappy model consensus is.

It did a great job last week as well with the clipper train. It's really been on a roll.

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So the GGEM of all models may manage to pull a coupe. Amazing.

 

Yet, I bet going forward if it shows monster solutions with the 3rd-5th storm, there's a 99.9% chance it won't verify and it will trend weaker/SE to whatever the crappy model consensus is. 

 

Looks like a storm with little cold sector precip.

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So the GGEM of all models may manage to pull a coupe. Amazing.

 

Yet, I bet going forward if it shows monster solutions for us with the 3rd-5th storm, there's a 99.9% chance it won't verify and it will trend weaker/SE to whatever the crappy model consensus will be.

 

DTW has won about 90% of the time this winter so you shouldn't be too upset. Can't win 'em all.

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DTW has won about 90% of the time this winter so you shouldn't be too upset. Can't win 'em all.

 

Eh, I don't blame him. When you're rolling, it's harder to lose them. You never know if and when they'll come back. Well, for LAF...they might be gone for good. But DTW still has a lot of life left.

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DTW has won about 90% of the time this winter so you shouldn't be too upset. Can't win 'em all.

 

I probably would trade much of the relative crap we've gotten so far (in terms of individual storm impacts) for what will probably happen with this system, given again the intense lift and moisture values progged.

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2m wet bulb 0 line on the NAM looks like it's south of the Kankakee River at 15z Saturday. Not a good sign for avoiding a bad icing situation.

Sent from my SCH-I535

 

IKK to VPZ looks dicey on this run assuming there's not much sleet mixing in.

I think all areas that see anything other than snow or sleet, even if surface temps warm above freezing are game for a bad icing situation, considering the problems we had a few weeks ago with temperatures warming close to 40 and rain.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

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Eh, I don't blame him. When you're rolling, it's harder to lose them. You never know if and when they'll come back. Well, for LAF...they might be gone for good. But DTW still has a lot of life left.

 

Well, I figure if I can shrug off another excruciating miss given what an abysmal snowhole Toronto has been this winter, anybody on pace for 80-100" can.

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Well, I figure if I can shrug off another excruciating miss given what an abysmal snowhole Toronto has been this winter, anybody on pace for 80-100" can.

 

Right, understood. It's all about one's backyard. I mean I'm in here bemoaning my fate with this one, after a exceptionally snowy month...but, you know. Still sucks. 

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So the GGEM of all models may manage to pull a coupe. Amazing.

 

Yet, I bet going forward if it shows monster solutions for us with the 3rd-5th storm, there's a 99.9% chance it won't verify and it will trend weaker/SE to whatever the crappy model consensus will be.

The GEM actually has done decent this winter. It nailed the December 14th storm locally when none of the other models had it. And this is nothing close to a monster. The GEM is always unrealistic with its monsters, but it does nail other storms often times. It also nailed Dec 31-Jan 2 here.

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cue Josh bitchslapping these posts in 3..2..1

 

Well let him have at it. :lol:

 

He's made it very clear over the years that he's a firm snowcover lover. With the record-breaking siberian airmass and frequent nickel and dime events, this has practically been his textbook type of winter. As long as he has some type of snow on the ground all winter with flakes flying, he's a happy camper and won't care what type of snowstorms we get.  

 

We will never see eye-to-eye when it comes to this, which is fine. 

 

(ok, exiting thread for real now)

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cue Josh bitchslapping these posts in 3..2..1

If you havent noticed....there are some people who will find something wrong with EVERY snowstorm. Its like they have to go through a checklist of every possible thing a snowstorm can have, and if there is ANYTHING missing, it WILL get complained about. See it every winter here. We have had absolutely everything but the kitchen sink here this winter and its still b*tching. NOW...if this storm was modeled to BULLSEYE DTW, we would be hearing our usual "of course we jackpot the run of the mill storms....but Feb 5th will miss us either N or S".

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