TimChgo9 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z GFS way weaker and south, way south, and then, for the Feb 3-5 time frame puts a whopper over most of Illinois, and Indiana, with plenty of cold sector precip for N IL. Yeah, we'll just keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z GFS brought back the good snows along the E-W boundary on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 hope i don't regret hating on the clipper pattern.. ugly gfs run so far.. could use a zzzz pattern for a week or two for my dad.. he's had only three days where he hasn't worked plowing at the airport for at least 12 hrs a daysince late november and that includes weekends. poor guy is drained out to the max... at least spring through summer he'll be off for weeks on end with comp time and the extra money aint bad for toys for retirement after one more winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS keeps playing peekaboo with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS keeps playing peekaboo with this storm. Feel like every time we should be getting closer to it, development keeps getting postponed a day or two. Suppose that's life in the long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'd take the 00z GGEM at 108-120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 hope i don't regret hating on the clipper pattern.. ugly gfs run so far.. could use a zzzz pattern for a week or two for my dad.. he's had only three days where he hasn't worked plowing at the airport for at least 12 hrs a daysince late november and that includes weekends. poor guy is drained out to the max... at least spring through summer he'll be off for weeks on end with comp time and the extra money aint bad for toys for retirement after one more winter. Plow crews here have been working nonstop all winter. The counties have ALREADY warned that theyve nearly went through their entire winter budget so they will have to borrow from summer maintenance funds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'd take the 00z GGEM at 108-120 Digging the rainfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Digging the rainfall? Snow thump Oh wait, WAA is always underdone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Snow thump Oh wait, WAA is always underdone... Ahh, correct. Looks like we're done with snowfall for quite awhile. Hopefully, we don't fall painfully shy of 50" like we did 2010-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS keeps playing peekaboo with this storm. looking like a good early call from you with a mostly miss to the south with wave one... not like models ever rushed in a pattern change before.. should be good times down the road for most with just a lil patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 looking like a good early call from you with a mostly miss to the south with wave one... not like models ever rushed in a pattern change before.. should be good times down the road for most with just a lil patience. GEM has a 999mb low on the MI/IN border, though that's not likely to verify given it's an outlier at this particular moment, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GEM has a 999mb low on the MI/IN border, though that's not likely to verify given it's an outlier at this particular moment, you never know. weird for that model to catch on late to the fake out storm.. normally its throwing out storms left and right - but maybe it did have it first but I don't pay any attention to that utterly useless model outside of whats posted on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 looking like a good early call from you with a mostly miss to the south with wave one... not like models ever rushed in a pattern change before.. should be good times down the road for most with just a lil patience. Agreed. With a -PNA we're going to be getting shortwaves coming in from the Pacific every couple of days. Timing/strength is going to be a problem for the models. But the key point is that we're ditching this god awful NW flow and the southern stream is back in play. Only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Agreed. With a -PNA we're going to be getting shortwaves coming in from the Pacific every couple of days. Timing/strength is going to be a problem for the models. But the key point is that we're ditching this god awful NW flow and the southern stream is back in play. Only a matter of time. Exactly, the progged -PNA is a key, and if the NAO goes negative simultaneously, that would only help, though we could do well without it as a subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Agreed. With a -PNA we're going to be getting shortwaves coming in from the Pacific every couple of days. Timing/strength is going to be a problem for the models. But the key point is that we're ditching this god awful NW flow and the southern stream is back in play. Only a matter of time. For those of us south of I-80, the pattern has changed for the worse. Clipper train gone, rain train beginning. DTW, MKE, ORD, etc should really cash as we go through February. And maybe this will be the ticket to Toronto getting in on the action. Hopefully so, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 amen.. but if this pattern change doesn't produce up here again I'll be a little cranky... But its going on feb and all in time for winter.. clipper pattern was fun for a tracking fix for us to the north that has missed most of the stuff racking up major + surpluses to the south and east. Meh w/e happens happens.. I got my snow cover fix on and a white christmas.. All i hope for going in to winter and big storms are just bonus. But yeah.. models wont be very helpful for those like me with little patience and ADD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Exactly, the progged -PNA is a key, and if the NAO goes negative simultaneously, that would only help, though we could do well without it as a subforum. why would we want a negative NAO unless positioned super... Doubt we see a true negative NAO anyways. But how many more misses south do you want especially if the epo remains neggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 amen.. but if this pattern change doesn't produce up here again I'll be a little cranky... But its going on feb and all in time for winter.. clipper pattern was fun for a tracking fix for us to the north that has missed most of the stuff racking up major + surpluses to the south and east. Meh w/e happens happens.. I got my snow cover fix on and a white christmas.. All i hope for going in to winter and big storms are just bonus. But yeah.. models wont be very helpful for those like me with little patience and ADD. I like your chances in February...big time. We had our fun here in the tropics this January, but it's over now. As I typically, and annoyingly, say...wagons north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I like your chances in February...big time. We had our fun here in the tropics this January, but it's over now. As I typically, and annoyingly, say...wagons north. lol wasn't your biggest snow of last season in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For those of us south of I-80, the pattern has changed for the worse. Clipper train gone, rain train beginning. DTW, MKE, ORD, etc should really cash as we go through February. And maybe this will be the ticket to Toronto getting in on the action. Hopefully so, anyways. I don't see the pattern turning to total garbage like that in the extended...not with the -EPO regime that we are in and will be in for the forseeable future. I think we may be in a battle zone at least for the next week or two and may win some, lose some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 why would we want a negative NAO unless positioned super... Doubt we see a true negative NAO anyways. But how many more misses south do you want especially if the epo remains neggy. If the PNA is negative, as I believe SSC mentioned, a -NAO would likely be east based, which would not likely feature too much suppression. However, if the -PNA ends up being a mirage, all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For those of us south of I-80, the pattern has changed for the worse. Clipper train gone, rain train beginning. DTW, MKE, ORD, etc should really cash as we go through February. And maybe this will be the ticket to Toronto getting in on the action. Hopefully so, anyways. At least one of ORD or DTW get to 80". I'd throw MKE into that as well but I'm actually not sure how they're doing. Slightly worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 lol wasn't your biggest snow of last season in March? Don't mind him...one storm not performing well is grounds for punting the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I like your chances in February...big time. We had our fun here in the tropics this January, but it's over now. As I typically, and annoyingly, say...wagons north. Meh, I like your area still for a while and mentioned that a while ago in a post and still believe the ones who have really scored this winter so far will continue to while those slacking a little compared will continue too.... we'll see.. lots of time to sort tings out and a lot of winter left but wagons north is going to have to wait until its prob congrats DuhLuth again when climo starts to fade for us south.. DD out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 At least one of ORD or DTW get to 80". I'd through MKE into that as well but I'm actually not sure how they're doing. Slightly worse? We will just be hitting 40" on the season with this most recent clipper. If we could summon some of the terrific Februaries of recent vintage, we might have a shot at 80, but most likely will settle within 5" of 60 on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 lol wasn't your biggest snow of last season in March? Last season, you better believe it. March was phenomenal. Not sure that means much with this season though. And I'm not complaining, because it's been stellar here so far this winter. Top notch. But the pattern is shifting to a more "northern favored" one, IMO. I don't see the pattern turning to total garbage like that in the extended...not with the -EPO regime that we are in and will be in for the forseeable future. I think we may be in a battle zone at least for the next week or two and may win some, lose some. I don't see any snow events for us at all for the next week or two. Maybe some mixed bags, but probably a lot of rainers. Regression to the mean for LAF, quite quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If the PNA is negative, as I believe SSC mentioned, a -NAO would likely be east based, which would not likely feature too much suppression. However, if the -PNA ends up being a mirage, all bets are off. I have no use for a -nao starting right now.. havent had one all winter basically so why start now unless you really want to be depressed.. Give me rain before more congrats buckeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Last season, you better believe it. March was phenomenal. Not sure that means much with this season though. And I'm not complaining, because it's been stellar here so far this winter. Top notch. But the pattern is shifting to a more "northern favored" one, IMO. I don't see any snow events for us at all for the next week or two. Maybe some mixed bags, but probably a lot of rainers. Regression to the mean for LAF, quite quickly. Ha, I'd take that bet if we were wagering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have no use for a -nao starting right now.. havent had one all winter basically so why start now unless you really want to be depressed.. Give me rain before more congrats buckeye. Eh, we'll probably see a period of a slightly -NAO, so might as well see it when we have a favorable PNA so we can lock in a semi-favorable storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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